With the Federal election over and my travels this summer I have taken a break from blogging. Today was a sad day in the world of politics with the passing of Jack Layton. He was well liked by many even those who strongly disagreed with his views much like myself. He embodied a style of politics that was different yet very appealing to what many consider quite cynical. Unlike many politicians who try to win by arguing they are the only one's who can stop someone else who will do lots of bad things, Jack Layton focused on the positive changes his party could bring. He tried to get people vote for the NDP, not to vote from them in order to stop someone else. He was also a very personable and one who people could easily relate to. No doubt his strong likeability helped endure many to him and those who in the past had written off the NDP were no willing to give it a look. He also was willing to take on big challenges. When he took over the NDP in 2003, they only had 13 seats and were struggling to hold official party status. In much of the country the party was largely irrelevant. Under his leadership, he increased the seats each time and also made the party competitive in areas it previously wasn't. More than anything, he ignored the cynics who called his vision and goals unrealistic. As we saw in the last election, he took the NDP to new heights it had never seen. Sadly, he will never get to see the fruits of his hard work. The party will have big shoes to fill, but I will talk about that in a later post. In the mean time my condolensces to his wife, children, and other family members and friends. Now is the time to remember his contribution to public life. Tomorrow the focus can be on the future of the party post Layton.
In other news, we have five provincial elections coming up this Fall. Three which I would call yawners. Barring something totally unforeseen, I expect Brad Wall to easily be re-elected in Saskatchewan, Robert Ghiz to easily be re-elected in PEI (which maybe the only good news the Liberals get this year anywhere in Canada), and Kathy Dunderdale to easily win in Newfoundland & Labrador although probably not by quite the gigantic margins Danny Williams did. Manitoba however is anything but certain. It looked like the PCs were on track to replace the NDP, but after Greg Selinger's strong showing during the floods and the return of the Winnipeg Jets, it is too close to a call and a lot will come down the campaign. The South side of Winnipeg is ultimately where it will be determined who wins thus whomever takes most of the seats in this area will likely go on to win the election.
Here in Ontario, where my focus will be, the odds definitely favour the PCs winning the most seats, but still too early to tell whether it will be a majority or minority. Likewise the Liberals could eke out a minority if they run a strong campaign and could even win a majority of Tim Hudak makes a collasal error. The NDP will likely gain seats, but whether it will be a strong showing like they had federally or only minor gains remains to be seen. I will also talk about the issues as well as bring up some federally. I feel too often controversial topics are avoided by the leaders so I want to bring them up on the blog as they should be discussed even if the politicians don't want to. I will probably start blogging more regularly after the Labour Day weekend.
Monday, 22 August 2011
Sunday, 15 May 2011
Post-Mortem by Provinces
This will probably be my last major post prior to the Ontario election this Fall. Since we have a majority government, there is no chance at a coalition and will be little drama on the throne speech or budget. Both will pass and the opposition will vote solidly against it without having to worry about the government falling. After the stunning defeat, I don't expect the Liberals to have a leadership race for sometime, although I will cover that when it happens.
Newfoundland & Labrador
Danny Williams is gone as premier and the new premier Kathy Dunderdale endorsed the Tories, however from reading many comments in the media, I still figured there was a lot of anger at the Tories over their broken promise on equalization. They did recover somewhat since they got 28% vs. 17%, which appears to me that all of those who always voted Tory in every election save 2008 returned to them, but those who voted for them most of the time, but occassionally for other parties stayed with the other parties. The Liberals held their ground for the most part as this was the only province they came in first and one of two where they won the majority of seats. The NDP picked up the other St. John's seats, but with no ground organization outside St. John's, they weren't able to gain elsewhere. Although I got the seat count right here, I was totally surprised like many that the Tories were able to pick up Labrador. Of all the seat changes in Atlantic Canada, that was probably the biggest shocker. I figured Avalon was their best shot if the Tories were to regain seats in Newfoundland & Labrador.
Nova Scotia
Not a whole lot of changes in seats, but it appears the Tories made big gains in terms of votes. With the Atlantic results having large margins of error and no province by province breakdown being given, this made it tough to predict the results for each province. My guess is the Tories stronger than expected showing was mostly due to the unpopularity of the provincial NDP which is why the NDP surge was much weaker here than elsewhere in Canada. We have seen this before in other provinces where an unpopular provincial NDP government hurts them federally. We saw it in BC in 1993, 1997, and 2000, Ontario in 1993, and Saskatchewan in 2004 and 2006. As such no real surprise here. The Liberals tied the Tories in seats but actually came in third in votes. This was mainly due to the fact that three of their four ridings they won were by less than 5% and they failed to crack the 50% mark in any Nova Scotia riding whereas both the NDP and Conservatives got above 50% in two ridings in Nova Scotia. Essentially the Liberals got some lucky breaks here as had they fallen slightly further, they would have won only one seat.
Prince Edward Island
No changes in terms of seats here although ironically the Tories actually got more votes than the Liberals despite only winning one seat. This was because they won Egmont by a large margin whereas the other three ridings were much closer. The NDP won no seats but still 15% is pretty good in a province that they routinely get in the single digits. As such as PEI is the only province they have never won a seat in. When one considers the ridings have only 30,000 people, I expect local candidates have a much bigger impact here than other provinces as many people will actually meet their local candidates so those who are undecided will vote based on candidate as opposed to party. Another interesting fact is PEI had the highest voter turnout of any province being at 74% so I almost wonder if smaller constituencies help increase turnout. Off course we would have close to 1,000 MPs federally if every riding was as small as those in PEI making this unrealistic. Still it might be a point worth considering for those who argue against adding new seats to Ontario, BC, and Alberta and instead argue we should cut them elsewhere.
New Brunswick
While no surprise in terms of who won each seat, I must say I was surprised at how well the Tories did in terms of the popular vote and when I saw the numbers come in New Brunswick, that was the first sign to me they were on their way to winning a majority government. Last time around, they gained due to the carbon tax which was very unpopular in New Brunswick, but this time around there didn't seem to be any particular issue to help them other than it appears the Liberal vote imploded and so those who were Blue Liberals or former Red Tories who switched to the Liberals over the merger, probably swung in favour of the Tories. Likewise the NDP surge was greatest here of all Atlantic provinces as they came in first or second in 7 of the 10 ridings. The problem is asides from Acadie-Bathurst which they won, the Tories got over 48% in all the other six meaning all they did was swap second place with the Liberals, but no new seats. Also their 70% in Acadie-Bathurst probably helped inflate their provincial totals. For the Liberals, they only won one seat, but also fell to third place in terms of votes for the first time ever. In many ways their poor showing in New Brunswick reflected their poor showing nationally as in both cases they came in third for the first time in their political history.
Quebec
Of all provinces, this was probably the one that played the biggest role in reshaping the new parliament. In Quebec, 58 of 75 ridings or over 75% of seats voted differently than they did last time around, whereas in every other province, the majority of ridings went the same way they did in 2008. In fact in English Canada, the NDP got 44 seats and Liberals 27 seats thus their second place finish would be less significant and they only had a net gain of 8 seats in English Canada and only got 1 seat more than Ed Broadbent got in 1988. However, due to their massive gains in Quebec, that totally changed things. As for what happened here, one should recall in some early posts I mentioned the Bloc Quebecois' weakness, but that none of the federalist parties could break away from the pack. Well it appears the NDP would be the one who would. Many in Quebec may still support sovereignty but realize voting Bloc is useless as sovereignty will come through electing a PQ government provincially and a referendum. In 2003, it looked like the Bloc was in trouble, but then they were saved by the sponsorship scandal. The same thing appeared again in 2008, but the Tories comments on the arts cuts as well as the fact the Bloc was able to portray them as too right wing for Quebec worked to save the Bloc. This time around, the Bloc had nothing to attack the NDP with. Quebecers were still mad at the Liberals over the sponsorship scandal and some older ones over bringing in the constitution over its objections, while the Tories were perceived as too right wing for Quebec. By contrast the NDP was centre-left like most Quebecers, they had a likeable leader (and in Quebec personality matters more than it does in other provinces, as the Nanos poll showed Quebecers voted mainly based on leader while English Canada on policies), and they had abandoned their previous support for a strongly centralized government which was the main barrier to an NDP breakthrough in Quebec. While many commented on how they had no ground organization in many of the ridings they won, when a wave starts in Quebec, ground organization rarely matters. People said the same thing about the PCs in 1984 and ADQ in 2007 yet both outperformed what most pundits predicted. Off course they elected several students and candidates who never expected to be elected. The most controversial one was Ruth Ellen Broussea who won in Berthier-Maskinoge. She was vacationing in Las Vegas, couldn't speak French which is the language of most in the riding, and had never visited the riding (That means I would be just as qualified as I have spent all of one hour in the riding back in 2008 when driving from Toronto to Quebec City and I even stopped to get a coffee at some point in the riding). Off course the NDP did elect some strong candidates too in Quebec, but the party will definitely have to keep an eye on their Quebec caucus as they are the most likely to make stupid remarks that could hurt them. As for the Liberals, they came in fourth with only 14% however due to their concentration of support on the Island of Montreal, they still won 7 seats. It appears that a lot of their support also swung over to the NDP but not quite to the same extent as the Bloc Quebecois. The Tories won only 5 seats here meaning they were able to win a majority without Quebec. Certainly many separtists will play this up pointing out that while English Canada swung to the right, Quebec swung to the left meaning their values are different and therefore they need to separate. In the case of the Tories, they lost three cabinet ministers in Quebec and with their poor showing they will no doubt need to include some of those not in cabinet who managed to survive the orange tsunami. For one thing, I suspect Maxime Bernier will be back in cabinet. The Bloc Quebecois got reduced to only 4 seats losing their official party status and even their leader Gilles Duceppe lost his own riding and therefore resigned on election night. While a lot can happen between now and 2015, the loss of official party status and the Tories plans to cut off party subsidies whom the Bloc relies on more than anyone else means there is a good chance this will be the last election they are a serious competitor in. Although this is a non-partisan blog, I cannot say I will be the least bit sad to see the Bloc disappear. I would be sad to see any of the three federalist parties disappear since despite my disagreements with each, I believe each one serves a purpose whereas the Bloc does not.
Ontario
If it was Quebec who was mainly responsible for catapalting the NDP into opposition, it was Ontario that gave the Tories their majority. More specifically it was the GTA as 80% of Tory pickups were located in the GTA. In fact the Tories only picked up 3 seats outside the GTA (Sault Ste. Marie, London North Centre, and Nipissing-Timiskaming), while the NDP had zero gains and one loss outside the GTA. The Liberals only had six seats outside the GTA in Ontario and held four of them including Guelph and Kingston & Islands which I mistakenly predicted would go Tory despite under-predicting the number of Tory seats in Ontario. Much like in the US, university towns often tend to be much more liberal than surrounding areas so just as you see many blue spots in a sea of red in middle America, it appears you saw the same thing in Ontario although with colours reversed. The GTA long described as Fortress Toronto it terms of Grit strength is not anymore. Although the Liberals still got roughly the same number of votes as the NDP and Tories they won fewer seats as their votes were evenly spread out whereas the NDP was concentrated in the urban core and the Tories in the suburbs. In fact in the 416 area code, the results somewhat mirred last municipal election with the Tories winning in the same areas Rob Ford won in and the NDP in the areas George Smithermann won in. Despite the past Liberal strength in Toronto, as was seen last municipal election, the Liberals in the suburbs were different than the downtown types. The downtown types were more your progressive centre-left types thus why they swung over to the NDP while in the suburbs they were more your Blue Liberal centre-right types thus why they swung over to the Tories. Although I didn't post it on the blog, I did figure the Tories could get over 70 seats in Ontario if they got a slight bounce on E-day. Most polls had them at 38-41% in Ontario so due to their supporters being more motivated to show up, being stronger amongst those most likely to vote, and better ground organization, I predicted they would get 41% and had they gotten that, they probably would have won around 60 seats. It appears many Blue Liberals, particularly in the 905 belt and 416 suburbs bolted to the Tories at the last moment which the polls didn't pick up. I suspect the fear of an NDP led coalition and the fact the Liberals had no chance at winning played a big role in this. After all many of them still remembered the Bob Rae government in the early 90s and didn't want to see a repeat. After all McGuinty got only 42% and 72 seats, while Martin in 2004 got 44.7% vs. the Tories 44.4% in 2011 and got 75 seats in Ontario so if either party gets in the mid 40s, it will net them around 70 seats. Due to the distribution of votes in Ontario, a 4-5% jump in support can easily bring with it 20 more seats. The big reason though why I think the Tories did as well as they did in Ontario is the number one issue more many was the economy and since Canada came through the recession better than most, many wanted a stable government to lead them through these difficult times. This was the impression I got from talking to many who voted Tory including many traditional Liberal supporters. The NDP gains mainly came after the surge in Quebec pushed them ahead of the Liberals. Around 5-8% in Ontario are centre-left supporters who simply want to remove the Tories from office and will vote for whichever party is more likely to achieve this so once it looked like the NDP had a better chance at removing the Tories than Liberals they switched. Ironically this surge probably helped the Tories due to both vote splitting as well as pushing some Blue Liberals over to the Tories who would have not switched had the Liberals still been in second. For the Liberals going from 100 seats in 2000 to only 11 seats in 2011 and finishing in third in many ridings is an unmitigated disaster. Simply speaking, they are irrelevant in large parts of Ontario and even in their strongholds they are no longer the dominate party they once were. Not too long ago, the GTA was to the Liberals what Alberta was to the Tories. Not anymore as they only won 7 seats in the GTA and none were by more than 15% and in none did they got above 50%. Even their leader couldn't win his own seat, while other leadership contenders in 2006 such as Martha Hall Findlay, Ken Dryden, Joe Volpe, and Gerard Kennedy lost their own seat. In fact Bob Rae was the only leadership candidate from Ontario who managed to hold his own seat. I also think that being a party of the centre made them vulnerable. As a party of the centre you can appeal to more people than you can on the right or left, but also your support can be eaten away by the other side too as we saw happen.
Manitoba
A great night for the Tories winning 54% of the popular vote and 11 of 14 seats. In fact I don't think they have done this well since at least 1958 and maybe not even then. While I can see why Saskatchewan has swung heavily in their favour in recent years, I am a little more perplexed with Manitoba as they are still a have not province and the NDP government provincially is relatively popular. Not a good night for the NDP here as they lost one seat to the Tories and were unable to regain the seat they lost to the Liberals in a by-election last year. Likewise the Liberals came within 45 votes of being shut out of Manitoba which is not a good result for them. In fact their two Prairie seats were probably won more due to the popularity of their candidates, Kevin Lamoreux and Ralph Goodale and with a generic Liberal candidate probably would have been shut out of the Prairies.
Saskatchewan
The Tories got 56% and won 13 of the 14 seats. No real surprise here and ironically the Tories being at 56% and NDP at 32% is very similiar to provincial polls with the Saskatchewan Party around the same level of support as the Tories and the NDP also at similiar levels to their provincial counterparts. The fact Saskatchewan is now a have province as well as the fact they have many resources which could be taxed under an NDP government probably played a strong role in its swing to the right. After all, as Saskatchewan's economy has become more like Alberta's, their voting patterns have become more similiar. Also the Tories were helped by the gerrymandering as they dominate Rural Saskatchewan while things are more evenly split in Saskatoon and Regina but due to the fact all eight of those ridings extend into the countryside is a big reason why the NDP was shut out again. The NDP got 32% which is not a bad showing for them, but this did not translate into seats once again. Besides the distribution of the ridings, I think the NDP has also been hurt by the fact it is less like the original CCF which started in Saskatchewan. Originally it was a Prairie populist party whose leaders were usually very religious. In the early 60s, it made an alliance with the labour movement to help them gain in Ontario and British Columbia. This may have been an uneasy one but at least they had enough in common to stay as one party. As unionization rates began to fall, they focused more on your downtown socialists and the difference between them and the Prairie populists was too big. In this election they expanded their support to the left wing nationalists in Quebec. While appealing to those groups helped them gain more seats nationally, it probably hurt them in the Prairies. The Liberals only got a dismal 9% yet Ralph Goodale still held his seat suggesting he could probably win as an independent in his riding due to his own popularity. In fact almost half of all Liberal votes cast in Saskatchewan were in Goodale's riding.
Alberta
The Tories weren't able to sweep the province, but got 67% which is their best showing since 1984 and won most ridings by obscene margins. For all the accusations that they have taken Alberta for granted, I suspect the threat of an NDP led coalition and their cap and trade plans being likely to hurt Alberta economically, probably helped boost the Tories. The NDP won Edmonton-Strathcona, but finished well back elsewhere. It looks like they did well amongst younger voters who tend to be more progressive than their older counterparts. After all many weren't born when the National Energy Program was implemented in the early 80s and also when you are a student you are probably concerned about the environment and Alberta's bad international rap. By contrast when you have a job, you may not like the negative views of the oilsands, but you probably hate the thought of being unemployed even more. The Liberals were off course irrelevant as most suspected.
British Columbia
British Columbia was the only province in English Canada where the Tories lost seats, however like the rest of English Canada, but unlike Quebec, their share of the popular vote increased. The main reason they didn't have gains in BC unlike Ontario was due to whom their main opponent was from the outset. In Ontario, it was the Liberals while BC it was the NDP, thus the drop of the Liberals and rise of the NDP is why the Tories gained in Ontario but not British Columbia. They did however pick up Vancouver South so for the first time in over 20 years, the Tories have representation in both Toronto and Vancouver proper, not just the suburbs. I also think their strategy to win amongst ethnic voters worked well although it also appears the NDP gained amongst them too, after all they won Scarborough-Rouge River which is 89% visible minority, the highest in all of Canada. If anything, immigrants are no longer voting massively Liberal like they use to and are instead voting based on their values as immigrants are quite diverse in their views just like native born Canadians are. The NDP did gain BC, getting 12 seats, with two coming from the Liberals and only one from the Tories. I figured they were more likely to pick up Liberal ridings since the Liberals won by smaller margins and their support was less firm than the Tory support. I was not surprised to see Surrey North go NDP which always struck me as the most vulnerable of the Tory seats in BC. The Liberals got reduced to 2 seats and only 13%. In many ways, the federal results are starting to mirror provincial ones with those who support the pro-free enterprise coalition (Social Credit from the 50s to 80s, BC Liberals today) voting Conservative while those who NDP provincially are now also voting for them federally. Essentially most federal Liberals who voted BC Liberal provincially probably swung over to the Tories and those who voted NDP provincially probably swung over to the NDP federally. Since the pro-free enterprise coalition has always won in BC provincially whenever they are united, it is no surprise the Tories federally would also come out on top. In terms of the two ridings the Liberals held, I think they held those ones due to unique demographics. Vancouver-Quadra and Vancouver Centre are fairly affluent ridings thus they wouldn't go NDP, but at the same time they are quite progressive thus why they won't go Tory. In many ways they are similiar to Toronto Centre and St. Paul's which the Liberals were able to hold and also like Manhattan and San Francisco in the US which are wealthy and progressive and go massively Democrat. The Green Party also won their first seat ever despite doing much worse nationally. This can easily be explained that the Green party didn't run a national campaign, but instead focused on winning a seat in the House of Commons. This is not unlike the last British election where the Green Party lost votes over the previous election, yet their leader won her seat. I suspect after seeing this, Elizabeth May realized she needed to win a seat to become credible and thus the reason she ran a local rather than national. It also appears much of the Green Party support elsewhere swung over to the NDP thus their rise and not so much to the Liberals. Probably not a lot to the Tories either although in Central Nova, I suspect a good chunk of the 10% who went Tory this time around but didn't last time around were Green voters.
North
The NDP held Western Arctic despite being targeted by both the Liberals and Tories. It appears Denis Bevington's personal popularity was enough to hold off the other two. In Nunavut, the Tories easily held this one which is no surprise considering their strong support of Arctic sovereignty as well as the popularity of their MP. Yukon was a bit of a surprise that the Tories picked this up as Larry Bagnell is a popular MP, although I suspect his support of the gun registry probably cost him votes considering how unpopular this in his riding. This also probably cost the NDP Sault Ste. Marie and may explain the strong increase in Tory support in Northern Ontario although not enough to take down many MPs. Either way this will be scrapped by the next election thus a non-issue although with the Tories now holding the incumbent advantage it will be a lot tougher to retake as incumbents rarely lose here.
Newfoundland & Labrador
Danny Williams is gone as premier and the new premier Kathy Dunderdale endorsed the Tories, however from reading many comments in the media, I still figured there was a lot of anger at the Tories over their broken promise on equalization. They did recover somewhat since they got 28% vs. 17%, which appears to me that all of those who always voted Tory in every election save 2008 returned to them, but those who voted for them most of the time, but occassionally for other parties stayed with the other parties. The Liberals held their ground for the most part as this was the only province they came in first and one of two where they won the majority of seats. The NDP picked up the other St. John's seats, but with no ground organization outside St. John's, they weren't able to gain elsewhere. Although I got the seat count right here, I was totally surprised like many that the Tories were able to pick up Labrador. Of all the seat changes in Atlantic Canada, that was probably the biggest shocker. I figured Avalon was their best shot if the Tories were to regain seats in Newfoundland & Labrador.
Nova Scotia
Not a whole lot of changes in seats, but it appears the Tories made big gains in terms of votes. With the Atlantic results having large margins of error and no province by province breakdown being given, this made it tough to predict the results for each province. My guess is the Tories stronger than expected showing was mostly due to the unpopularity of the provincial NDP which is why the NDP surge was much weaker here than elsewhere in Canada. We have seen this before in other provinces where an unpopular provincial NDP government hurts them federally. We saw it in BC in 1993, 1997, and 2000, Ontario in 1993, and Saskatchewan in 2004 and 2006. As such no real surprise here. The Liberals tied the Tories in seats but actually came in third in votes. This was mainly due to the fact that three of their four ridings they won were by less than 5% and they failed to crack the 50% mark in any Nova Scotia riding whereas both the NDP and Conservatives got above 50% in two ridings in Nova Scotia. Essentially the Liberals got some lucky breaks here as had they fallen slightly further, they would have won only one seat.
Prince Edward Island
No changes in terms of seats here although ironically the Tories actually got more votes than the Liberals despite only winning one seat. This was because they won Egmont by a large margin whereas the other three ridings were much closer. The NDP won no seats but still 15% is pretty good in a province that they routinely get in the single digits. As such as PEI is the only province they have never won a seat in. When one considers the ridings have only 30,000 people, I expect local candidates have a much bigger impact here than other provinces as many people will actually meet their local candidates so those who are undecided will vote based on candidate as opposed to party. Another interesting fact is PEI had the highest voter turnout of any province being at 74% so I almost wonder if smaller constituencies help increase turnout. Off course we would have close to 1,000 MPs federally if every riding was as small as those in PEI making this unrealistic. Still it might be a point worth considering for those who argue against adding new seats to Ontario, BC, and Alberta and instead argue we should cut them elsewhere.
New Brunswick
While no surprise in terms of who won each seat, I must say I was surprised at how well the Tories did in terms of the popular vote and when I saw the numbers come in New Brunswick, that was the first sign to me they were on their way to winning a majority government. Last time around, they gained due to the carbon tax which was very unpopular in New Brunswick, but this time around there didn't seem to be any particular issue to help them other than it appears the Liberal vote imploded and so those who were Blue Liberals or former Red Tories who switched to the Liberals over the merger, probably swung in favour of the Tories. Likewise the NDP surge was greatest here of all Atlantic provinces as they came in first or second in 7 of the 10 ridings. The problem is asides from Acadie-Bathurst which they won, the Tories got over 48% in all the other six meaning all they did was swap second place with the Liberals, but no new seats. Also their 70% in Acadie-Bathurst probably helped inflate their provincial totals. For the Liberals, they only won one seat, but also fell to third place in terms of votes for the first time ever. In many ways their poor showing in New Brunswick reflected their poor showing nationally as in both cases they came in third for the first time in their political history.
Quebec
Of all provinces, this was probably the one that played the biggest role in reshaping the new parliament. In Quebec, 58 of 75 ridings or over 75% of seats voted differently than they did last time around, whereas in every other province, the majority of ridings went the same way they did in 2008. In fact in English Canada, the NDP got 44 seats and Liberals 27 seats thus their second place finish would be less significant and they only had a net gain of 8 seats in English Canada and only got 1 seat more than Ed Broadbent got in 1988. However, due to their massive gains in Quebec, that totally changed things. As for what happened here, one should recall in some early posts I mentioned the Bloc Quebecois' weakness, but that none of the federalist parties could break away from the pack. Well it appears the NDP would be the one who would. Many in Quebec may still support sovereignty but realize voting Bloc is useless as sovereignty will come through electing a PQ government provincially and a referendum. In 2003, it looked like the Bloc was in trouble, but then they were saved by the sponsorship scandal. The same thing appeared again in 2008, but the Tories comments on the arts cuts as well as the fact the Bloc was able to portray them as too right wing for Quebec worked to save the Bloc. This time around, the Bloc had nothing to attack the NDP with. Quebecers were still mad at the Liberals over the sponsorship scandal and some older ones over bringing in the constitution over its objections, while the Tories were perceived as too right wing for Quebec. By contrast the NDP was centre-left like most Quebecers, they had a likeable leader (and in Quebec personality matters more than it does in other provinces, as the Nanos poll showed Quebecers voted mainly based on leader while English Canada on policies), and they had abandoned their previous support for a strongly centralized government which was the main barrier to an NDP breakthrough in Quebec. While many commented on how they had no ground organization in many of the ridings they won, when a wave starts in Quebec, ground organization rarely matters. People said the same thing about the PCs in 1984 and ADQ in 2007 yet both outperformed what most pundits predicted. Off course they elected several students and candidates who never expected to be elected. The most controversial one was Ruth Ellen Broussea who won in Berthier-Maskinoge. She was vacationing in Las Vegas, couldn't speak French which is the language of most in the riding, and had never visited the riding (That means I would be just as qualified as I have spent all of one hour in the riding back in 2008 when driving from Toronto to Quebec City and I even stopped to get a coffee at some point in the riding). Off course the NDP did elect some strong candidates too in Quebec, but the party will definitely have to keep an eye on their Quebec caucus as they are the most likely to make stupid remarks that could hurt them. As for the Liberals, they came in fourth with only 14% however due to their concentration of support on the Island of Montreal, they still won 7 seats. It appears that a lot of their support also swung over to the NDP but not quite to the same extent as the Bloc Quebecois. The Tories won only 5 seats here meaning they were able to win a majority without Quebec. Certainly many separtists will play this up pointing out that while English Canada swung to the right, Quebec swung to the left meaning their values are different and therefore they need to separate. In the case of the Tories, they lost three cabinet ministers in Quebec and with their poor showing they will no doubt need to include some of those not in cabinet who managed to survive the orange tsunami. For one thing, I suspect Maxime Bernier will be back in cabinet. The Bloc Quebecois got reduced to only 4 seats losing their official party status and even their leader Gilles Duceppe lost his own riding and therefore resigned on election night. While a lot can happen between now and 2015, the loss of official party status and the Tories plans to cut off party subsidies whom the Bloc relies on more than anyone else means there is a good chance this will be the last election they are a serious competitor in. Although this is a non-partisan blog, I cannot say I will be the least bit sad to see the Bloc disappear. I would be sad to see any of the three federalist parties disappear since despite my disagreements with each, I believe each one serves a purpose whereas the Bloc does not.
Ontario
If it was Quebec who was mainly responsible for catapalting the NDP into opposition, it was Ontario that gave the Tories their majority. More specifically it was the GTA as 80% of Tory pickups were located in the GTA. In fact the Tories only picked up 3 seats outside the GTA (Sault Ste. Marie, London North Centre, and Nipissing-Timiskaming), while the NDP had zero gains and one loss outside the GTA. The Liberals only had six seats outside the GTA in Ontario and held four of them including Guelph and Kingston & Islands which I mistakenly predicted would go Tory despite under-predicting the number of Tory seats in Ontario. Much like in the US, university towns often tend to be much more liberal than surrounding areas so just as you see many blue spots in a sea of red in middle America, it appears you saw the same thing in Ontario although with colours reversed. The GTA long described as Fortress Toronto it terms of Grit strength is not anymore. Although the Liberals still got roughly the same number of votes as the NDP and Tories they won fewer seats as their votes were evenly spread out whereas the NDP was concentrated in the urban core and the Tories in the suburbs. In fact in the 416 area code, the results somewhat mirred last municipal election with the Tories winning in the same areas Rob Ford won in and the NDP in the areas George Smithermann won in. Despite the past Liberal strength in Toronto, as was seen last municipal election, the Liberals in the suburbs were different than the downtown types. The downtown types were more your progressive centre-left types thus why they swung over to the NDP while in the suburbs they were more your Blue Liberal centre-right types thus why they swung over to the Tories. Although I didn't post it on the blog, I did figure the Tories could get over 70 seats in Ontario if they got a slight bounce on E-day. Most polls had them at 38-41% in Ontario so due to their supporters being more motivated to show up, being stronger amongst those most likely to vote, and better ground organization, I predicted they would get 41% and had they gotten that, they probably would have won around 60 seats. It appears many Blue Liberals, particularly in the 905 belt and 416 suburbs bolted to the Tories at the last moment which the polls didn't pick up. I suspect the fear of an NDP led coalition and the fact the Liberals had no chance at winning played a big role in this. After all many of them still remembered the Bob Rae government in the early 90s and didn't want to see a repeat. After all McGuinty got only 42% and 72 seats, while Martin in 2004 got 44.7% vs. the Tories 44.4% in 2011 and got 75 seats in Ontario so if either party gets in the mid 40s, it will net them around 70 seats. Due to the distribution of votes in Ontario, a 4-5% jump in support can easily bring with it 20 more seats. The big reason though why I think the Tories did as well as they did in Ontario is the number one issue more many was the economy and since Canada came through the recession better than most, many wanted a stable government to lead them through these difficult times. This was the impression I got from talking to many who voted Tory including many traditional Liberal supporters. The NDP gains mainly came after the surge in Quebec pushed them ahead of the Liberals. Around 5-8% in Ontario are centre-left supporters who simply want to remove the Tories from office and will vote for whichever party is more likely to achieve this so once it looked like the NDP had a better chance at removing the Tories than Liberals they switched. Ironically this surge probably helped the Tories due to both vote splitting as well as pushing some Blue Liberals over to the Tories who would have not switched had the Liberals still been in second. For the Liberals going from 100 seats in 2000 to only 11 seats in 2011 and finishing in third in many ridings is an unmitigated disaster. Simply speaking, they are irrelevant in large parts of Ontario and even in their strongholds they are no longer the dominate party they once were. Not too long ago, the GTA was to the Liberals what Alberta was to the Tories. Not anymore as they only won 7 seats in the GTA and none were by more than 15% and in none did they got above 50%. Even their leader couldn't win his own seat, while other leadership contenders in 2006 such as Martha Hall Findlay, Ken Dryden, Joe Volpe, and Gerard Kennedy lost their own seat. In fact Bob Rae was the only leadership candidate from Ontario who managed to hold his own seat. I also think that being a party of the centre made them vulnerable. As a party of the centre you can appeal to more people than you can on the right or left, but also your support can be eaten away by the other side too as we saw happen.
Manitoba
A great night for the Tories winning 54% of the popular vote and 11 of 14 seats. In fact I don't think they have done this well since at least 1958 and maybe not even then. While I can see why Saskatchewan has swung heavily in their favour in recent years, I am a little more perplexed with Manitoba as they are still a have not province and the NDP government provincially is relatively popular. Not a good night for the NDP here as they lost one seat to the Tories and were unable to regain the seat they lost to the Liberals in a by-election last year. Likewise the Liberals came within 45 votes of being shut out of Manitoba which is not a good result for them. In fact their two Prairie seats were probably won more due to the popularity of their candidates, Kevin Lamoreux and Ralph Goodale and with a generic Liberal candidate probably would have been shut out of the Prairies.
Saskatchewan
The Tories got 56% and won 13 of the 14 seats. No real surprise here and ironically the Tories being at 56% and NDP at 32% is very similiar to provincial polls with the Saskatchewan Party around the same level of support as the Tories and the NDP also at similiar levels to their provincial counterparts. The fact Saskatchewan is now a have province as well as the fact they have many resources which could be taxed under an NDP government probably played a strong role in its swing to the right. After all, as Saskatchewan's economy has become more like Alberta's, their voting patterns have become more similiar. Also the Tories were helped by the gerrymandering as they dominate Rural Saskatchewan while things are more evenly split in Saskatoon and Regina but due to the fact all eight of those ridings extend into the countryside is a big reason why the NDP was shut out again. The NDP got 32% which is not a bad showing for them, but this did not translate into seats once again. Besides the distribution of the ridings, I think the NDP has also been hurt by the fact it is less like the original CCF which started in Saskatchewan. Originally it was a Prairie populist party whose leaders were usually very religious. In the early 60s, it made an alliance with the labour movement to help them gain in Ontario and British Columbia. This may have been an uneasy one but at least they had enough in common to stay as one party. As unionization rates began to fall, they focused more on your downtown socialists and the difference between them and the Prairie populists was too big. In this election they expanded their support to the left wing nationalists in Quebec. While appealing to those groups helped them gain more seats nationally, it probably hurt them in the Prairies. The Liberals only got a dismal 9% yet Ralph Goodale still held his seat suggesting he could probably win as an independent in his riding due to his own popularity. In fact almost half of all Liberal votes cast in Saskatchewan were in Goodale's riding.
Alberta
The Tories weren't able to sweep the province, but got 67% which is their best showing since 1984 and won most ridings by obscene margins. For all the accusations that they have taken Alberta for granted, I suspect the threat of an NDP led coalition and their cap and trade plans being likely to hurt Alberta economically, probably helped boost the Tories. The NDP won Edmonton-Strathcona, but finished well back elsewhere. It looks like they did well amongst younger voters who tend to be more progressive than their older counterparts. After all many weren't born when the National Energy Program was implemented in the early 80s and also when you are a student you are probably concerned about the environment and Alberta's bad international rap. By contrast when you have a job, you may not like the negative views of the oilsands, but you probably hate the thought of being unemployed even more. The Liberals were off course irrelevant as most suspected.
British Columbia
British Columbia was the only province in English Canada where the Tories lost seats, however like the rest of English Canada, but unlike Quebec, their share of the popular vote increased. The main reason they didn't have gains in BC unlike Ontario was due to whom their main opponent was from the outset. In Ontario, it was the Liberals while BC it was the NDP, thus the drop of the Liberals and rise of the NDP is why the Tories gained in Ontario but not British Columbia. They did however pick up Vancouver South so for the first time in over 20 years, the Tories have representation in both Toronto and Vancouver proper, not just the suburbs. I also think their strategy to win amongst ethnic voters worked well although it also appears the NDP gained amongst them too, after all they won Scarborough-Rouge River which is 89% visible minority, the highest in all of Canada. If anything, immigrants are no longer voting massively Liberal like they use to and are instead voting based on their values as immigrants are quite diverse in their views just like native born Canadians are. The NDP did gain BC, getting 12 seats, with two coming from the Liberals and only one from the Tories. I figured they were more likely to pick up Liberal ridings since the Liberals won by smaller margins and their support was less firm than the Tory support. I was not surprised to see Surrey North go NDP which always struck me as the most vulnerable of the Tory seats in BC. The Liberals got reduced to 2 seats and only 13%. In many ways, the federal results are starting to mirror provincial ones with those who support the pro-free enterprise coalition (Social Credit from the 50s to 80s, BC Liberals today) voting Conservative while those who NDP provincially are now also voting for them federally. Essentially most federal Liberals who voted BC Liberal provincially probably swung over to the Tories and those who voted NDP provincially probably swung over to the NDP federally. Since the pro-free enterprise coalition has always won in BC provincially whenever they are united, it is no surprise the Tories federally would also come out on top. In terms of the two ridings the Liberals held, I think they held those ones due to unique demographics. Vancouver-Quadra and Vancouver Centre are fairly affluent ridings thus they wouldn't go NDP, but at the same time they are quite progressive thus why they won't go Tory. In many ways they are similiar to Toronto Centre and St. Paul's which the Liberals were able to hold and also like Manhattan and San Francisco in the US which are wealthy and progressive and go massively Democrat. The Green Party also won their first seat ever despite doing much worse nationally. This can easily be explained that the Green party didn't run a national campaign, but instead focused on winning a seat in the House of Commons. This is not unlike the last British election where the Green Party lost votes over the previous election, yet their leader won her seat. I suspect after seeing this, Elizabeth May realized she needed to win a seat to become credible and thus the reason she ran a local rather than national. It also appears much of the Green Party support elsewhere swung over to the NDP thus their rise and not so much to the Liberals. Probably not a lot to the Tories either although in Central Nova, I suspect a good chunk of the 10% who went Tory this time around but didn't last time around were Green voters.
North
The NDP held Western Arctic despite being targeted by both the Liberals and Tories. It appears Denis Bevington's personal popularity was enough to hold off the other two. In Nunavut, the Tories easily held this one which is no surprise considering their strong support of Arctic sovereignty as well as the popularity of their MP. Yukon was a bit of a surprise that the Tories picked this up as Larry Bagnell is a popular MP, although I suspect his support of the gun registry probably cost him votes considering how unpopular this in his riding. This also probably cost the NDP Sault Ste. Marie and may explain the strong increase in Tory support in Northern Ontario although not enough to take down many MPs. Either way this will be scrapped by the next election thus a non-issue although with the Tories now holding the incumbent advantage it will be a lot tougher to retake as incumbents rarely lose here.
Sunday, 8 May 2011
First Post-Mortem
I will have more details over the next week or two, anyways here is my first post-mortem. This was called a Seinfield election and everybody said no much would change. They were wrong and it does show that elections do matter. This election may very well result in a political realignment with the Tories finally achieving their goal of being the natural governing party, the NDP as the main alternative and the Liberals and BQ fading into oblivion. Off course it is too early to say what will or won't but at least this looks far more plausible than it did 6 weeks ago.
Conservatives
The Conservatives wanted a majority government and they got it, so on the whole I would say this election was a success for them. I also think most thought it would be a bare majority, not the 166 seats they got and I doubt many actually thought they would win 70+ seats in Ontario and 2/3 of the seats in the GTA including 8.5 seats (Pickering-Scarborough East straddles the 905/416) in the 416 area code. That being said I think had the NDP surge not occurred, I don't think they would have made the gains they did in the GTA (which is where 80% of their pickups occurred). First this split the vote on the left allowing them to come up the middle in ridings like Don Valley East, Scarborough Centre, and Bramalea-Gore-Malton. Secondly many Blue Liberals probably bolted for the Tories at the last minute thus why they got 44% in Ontario, not the 38-41% most polls said and in terms of seats this makes a big difference. Although only predicted they would win 60 seats in Ontario, I will admit I thought that 70 seats was not as far fetched as some thought since I figured if they went up a few percentage points that would happen. After all, they got a greater share of the popular vote in Ontario than McGuinty got lost provincial election when he won 72 seats and roughly the same as Paul Martin did in 2004 when he won 75 seats in Ontario. Also another thing they did was they won a majority without Quebec which no Conservative government has done since 1917 when they had the conscription crisis. The fact they were able to win without Quebec could have some interesting ramfications which I will discuss in later posts.
NDP
Almost tripled their seat count, formed the official opposition, and made a huge breakthrough in Quebec. I think if you are dipper, you would have to be pretty happy with how well your party did. The only disappointment some might have as despite their gains, Canada will likely move to the right, not left, and they will have less clout in the upcoming parliament, but this all has to do with the fact the Tories won a majority which there is not much they can do about. They made gains in English Canada, although their gains in English Canada were far less impressive than Quebec. In fact they only had a net gain of 8 seats in English Canada and won one more than Ed Broadbent did in 1988, so it was really in Quebec where they surged ahead. In fact one could argue Canada broke along linguistic lines with English Canada swinging to the right by electing more Tories and Quebec swinging to the left by electing a lot more NDPs. Just as Quebec swung massively towards the NDP, they can easily take it away on its moments notice much as we saw with the provincial ADQ who nearly won in 2007 only to get wiped out a year and half later. The NDP has an opportunity to eventually form government, but there is no guarantee they will be the party that will replace the Tories. Now that they are the official opposition, they will come under much greater scrutiny than before and how they handle this will determine whether they supplant the Liberals as the main alternative to the Tories or was this just a one time event.
Liberals
Obviously on many fronts, this was an unmitigated disaster. They had their worst showing ever, their leader lost his own seat, they couldn't even stay in front in their stronghold of the GTA. Even in Atlantic Canada which is now called their new stronghold, they won fewer votes and seats than the Tories. Obviously they have a lot of rebuilding to do. I don't think they ran a horrible campaign and I think their loss was not just do to Michael Ignatieff being unpopular, but also other issues too. He maybe didn't help, but I think the party would have done poorly no matter who their leader was. The problem is there is still a strong sense of arrogance in the party that believes it is their God given right to govern. Many still harken back to past glories and still try to think of excuses for their poorer than expected showings in the past three elections. Had they taken their losses serious and realized they weren't accidents, I believe the party would be in much better shape than it was. Still the party is not dead and can someday form government again, but it will take a lot of rebuilding. I will have more on this in later posts as well as any possible unite the left merger.
Bloc Quebecois
The Liberals and Tories have both tried to wipe out the Bloc Quebecois, but both failed. Finally under the NDP, they succeeded. Although this is a non-partisan blog, I am a federalist and I am not the least bit sad to see them do as poorly as they did and nor will I be sad if the party goes under completely. Despite the fact the results surprised many, we could see the unravelling beginning as far back as 2003. In 2003, the Liberals had a huge lead in the polls in Quebec and looked like they would finish off the Bloc Quebecois. It was adscam that prevented this from happening. In 2008, it looked like the Tories might do the same, however Harper's stupid comments about cuts to the arts as well as the fact the Bloc was able to portray the Tories as too right wing for Quebec helped save them. In many ways the Bloc Quebecois had outlived its usefulness as separation will come through electing a PQ government provincially and having a referendum; electing BQ members will do nothing to advance the cause of separtism. Many in Quebec realized this and only voted Bloc due to disatsification with the alternatives. Quebecers are still angry at the Liberals over adscam, thus why they weren't an acceptable alternative, and the Tories are too right wing for Quebec as Quebec is without question the most left wing province in Canada, thus making them not an acceptable alternative. The NDP seemed like a possible alternative, but in the past they often advocated a strongly centralized government which is not popular in Quebec. This election, they promised to respect Quebec's provincial jurisdiction and being in sync with Quebec on the values question and not having been in government before, thus not doing anything to anger Quebecers, they seemed like a viable alternative to the Bloc Quebecois. The loss of the BQ does not however mean separtism is dead. Close to 40% of Quebecers are still separtist, they just realize that it will be achieved at the provincial, not federal level.
Green Party
Despite losing several votes largely due to less media attention, Elizabeth May won her own seat being the first Green MP elected in Canada. The same thing happened in Britain last election where the Greens lost votes but the leader won her seat, so seemed like a wise strategy. I argued that she should have been excluded from the debates and I stand by that argument, but now that she has won a seat, I believe the Greens have earned the right to be in the next debate in 2015. I still think though we should establish clear rules for who is in and who is not. My view is any party that gets a seat or over 10% of the popular vote is included.
Conservatives
The Conservatives wanted a majority government and they got it, so on the whole I would say this election was a success for them. I also think most thought it would be a bare majority, not the 166 seats they got and I doubt many actually thought they would win 70+ seats in Ontario and 2/3 of the seats in the GTA including 8.5 seats (Pickering-Scarborough East straddles the 905/416) in the 416 area code. That being said I think had the NDP surge not occurred, I don't think they would have made the gains they did in the GTA (which is where 80% of their pickups occurred). First this split the vote on the left allowing them to come up the middle in ridings like Don Valley East, Scarborough Centre, and Bramalea-Gore-Malton. Secondly many Blue Liberals probably bolted for the Tories at the last minute thus why they got 44% in Ontario, not the 38-41% most polls said and in terms of seats this makes a big difference. Although only predicted they would win 60 seats in Ontario, I will admit I thought that 70 seats was not as far fetched as some thought since I figured if they went up a few percentage points that would happen. After all, they got a greater share of the popular vote in Ontario than McGuinty got lost provincial election when he won 72 seats and roughly the same as Paul Martin did in 2004 when he won 75 seats in Ontario. Also another thing they did was they won a majority without Quebec which no Conservative government has done since 1917 when they had the conscription crisis. The fact they were able to win without Quebec could have some interesting ramfications which I will discuss in later posts.
NDP
Almost tripled their seat count, formed the official opposition, and made a huge breakthrough in Quebec. I think if you are dipper, you would have to be pretty happy with how well your party did. The only disappointment some might have as despite their gains, Canada will likely move to the right, not left, and they will have less clout in the upcoming parliament, but this all has to do with the fact the Tories won a majority which there is not much they can do about. They made gains in English Canada, although their gains in English Canada were far less impressive than Quebec. In fact they only had a net gain of 8 seats in English Canada and won one more than Ed Broadbent did in 1988, so it was really in Quebec where they surged ahead. In fact one could argue Canada broke along linguistic lines with English Canada swinging to the right by electing more Tories and Quebec swinging to the left by electing a lot more NDPs. Just as Quebec swung massively towards the NDP, they can easily take it away on its moments notice much as we saw with the provincial ADQ who nearly won in 2007 only to get wiped out a year and half later. The NDP has an opportunity to eventually form government, but there is no guarantee they will be the party that will replace the Tories. Now that they are the official opposition, they will come under much greater scrutiny than before and how they handle this will determine whether they supplant the Liberals as the main alternative to the Tories or was this just a one time event.
Liberals
Obviously on many fronts, this was an unmitigated disaster. They had their worst showing ever, their leader lost his own seat, they couldn't even stay in front in their stronghold of the GTA. Even in Atlantic Canada which is now called their new stronghold, they won fewer votes and seats than the Tories. Obviously they have a lot of rebuilding to do. I don't think they ran a horrible campaign and I think their loss was not just do to Michael Ignatieff being unpopular, but also other issues too. He maybe didn't help, but I think the party would have done poorly no matter who their leader was. The problem is there is still a strong sense of arrogance in the party that believes it is their God given right to govern. Many still harken back to past glories and still try to think of excuses for their poorer than expected showings in the past three elections. Had they taken their losses serious and realized they weren't accidents, I believe the party would be in much better shape than it was. Still the party is not dead and can someday form government again, but it will take a lot of rebuilding. I will have more on this in later posts as well as any possible unite the left merger.
Bloc Quebecois
The Liberals and Tories have both tried to wipe out the Bloc Quebecois, but both failed. Finally under the NDP, they succeeded. Although this is a non-partisan blog, I am a federalist and I am not the least bit sad to see them do as poorly as they did and nor will I be sad if the party goes under completely. Despite the fact the results surprised many, we could see the unravelling beginning as far back as 2003. In 2003, the Liberals had a huge lead in the polls in Quebec and looked like they would finish off the Bloc Quebecois. It was adscam that prevented this from happening. In 2008, it looked like the Tories might do the same, however Harper's stupid comments about cuts to the arts as well as the fact the Bloc was able to portray the Tories as too right wing for Quebec helped save them. In many ways the Bloc Quebecois had outlived its usefulness as separation will come through electing a PQ government provincially and having a referendum; electing BQ members will do nothing to advance the cause of separtism. Many in Quebec realized this and only voted Bloc due to disatsification with the alternatives. Quebecers are still angry at the Liberals over adscam, thus why they weren't an acceptable alternative, and the Tories are too right wing for Quebec as Quebec is without question the most left wing province in Canada, thus making them not an acceptable alternative. The NDP seemed like a possible alternative, but in the past they often advocated a strongly centralized government which is not popular in Quebec. This election, they promised to respect Quebec's provincial jurisdiction and being in sync with Quebec on the values question and not having been in government before, thus not doing anything to anger Quebecers, they seemed like a viable alternative to the Bloc Quebecois. The loss of the BQ does not however mean separtism is dead. Close to 40% of Quebecers are still separtist, they just realize that it will be achieved at the provincial, not federal level.
Green Party
Despite losing several votes largely due to less media attention, Elizabeth May won her own seat being the first Green MP elected in Canada. The same thing happened in Britain last election where the Greens lost votes but the leader won her seat, so seemed like a wise strategy. I argued that she should have been excluded from the debates and I stand by that argument, but now that she has won a seat, I believe the Greens have earned the right to be in the next debate in 2015. I still think though we should establish clear rules for who is in and who is not. My view is any party that gets a seat or over 10% of the popular vote is included.
Monday, 2 May 2011
Election Results
I will give a first post-mortem tomorrow, but for those who said this would be a Seinfeild election, I guess it was anything but. The Conservatives not only win a majority, but a fairly solid one and they got close to if not over 40% of the popular vote and won at least one seat in every province. The NDP forms the official opposition with over 100 seats and the Liberals fall to below to 40 seats and the Bloc Quebecois loses its official party status. It also looks like both Ignatieff and Duceppe have lost their own seats. I will have more on this tomorrow or Wednesday.
Last post before the polls close
In just over an hour, the first polls will close in Newfoundland & Labrador and we will see the first results. In the case of Newfoundland & Labrador, I don't think it will be very indicative of how things will go, but it will be interesting to see if the Tories regain a seat after Williams' ABC campaign. Avalon seems like their best bet, but Random-Burin-St. George's is a possibility. The NDP look set to gain St. John's South-Mount Pearl so this might be the first indication of whether the orange surge has truly materialized or not. At 8:00, the polls in the rest of Atlantic Canada close. In terms of vote splitting or Conservative gains I will be watching to see if the Tories pick up Malpeque, Madawaska-Restigouche, and Moncton-Riverview-Dieppe since if they pick up these, that could be a sign of big gains in Ontario, but if not it may say the Liberal vote is holding better than expected. Dartmouth-Cole Harbour and South Shore-St. Margaret's are the most likely NDP pick ups in Nova Scotia so if they cannot pick those up, the surge may be weaker than expected while if they pick up Central Nova and Halifax West that probably means it is stronger than expected.
Quebec, Ontario, and BC are the provinces to watch later as the Prairies should largely stay Tory with only a few seats possibly changing hands. In the case of Quebec, a lot will be whether the NDP surge materializes or not. They should win at least 30 seats there, but if they get over 50 seats they may have a chance at getting over 100 seats nationally. Likewise this will be the first sign as to whether the Bloc Quebecois will play a role in the next parliament or not. The Liberals and Conservatives should lose seats, but not all. In Ontario, there are a couple of possible scenarios. If the Conservative vote rises to 42-43%, they could have a really good night and will probably pull off a majority. If it stays in the 38-40% range but you have strong vote splits, this should be enough to counter losses elsewhere but probably not quite enough to get a majority. If the Liberals rebound somewhat, then expect them to have a better night than expected and the Tories to hold their seats but not get a majority. If the NDP surges past 30% in Ontario, expect them to start picking up seats we never expected, but also we should see a lot of Tory pickups from supposed safe Liberal seats in suburban 416 and the 905 belt. In British Columbia, it will determine whether the Conservatives get a majority or not and likewise if an NDP-Liberal coalition is viable or not. The Conservatives should win the majority of seats in BC, but whether they hold their ground or lose to the NDP still remains to be seen.
I will give my initial reaction later tonight, but do an indepth analysis tomorrow or Wednesday on the regional breakdowns, why the parties fared the way they did, where they need to go going forward, and also whether a coalition is viable or not in the case of another Conservative minority.
Quebec, Ontario, and BC are the provinces to watch later as the Prairies should largely stay Tory with only a few seats possibly changing hands. In the case of Quebec, a lot will be whether the NDP surge materializes or not. They should win at least 30 seats there, but if they get over 50 seats they may have a chance at getting over 100 seats nationally. Likewise this will be the first sign as to whether the Bloc Quebecois will play a role in the next parliament or not. The Liberals and Conservatives should lose seats, but not all. In Ontario, there are a couple of possible scenarios. If the Conservative vote rises to 42-43%, they could have a really good night and will probably pull off a majority. If it stays in the 38-40% range but you have strong vote splits, this should be enough to counter losses elsewhere but probably not quite enough to get a majority. If the Liberals rebound somewhat, then expect them to have a better night than expected and the Tories to hold their seats but not get a majority. If the NDP surges past 30% in Ontario, expect them to start picking up seats we never expected, but also we should see a lot of Tory pickups from supposed safe Liberal seats in suburban 416 and the 905 belt. In British Columbia, it will determine whether the Conservatives get a majority or not and likewise if an NDP-Liberal coalition is viable or not. The Conservatives should win the majority of seats in BC, but whether they hold their ground or lose to the NDP still remains to be seen.
I will give my initial reaction later tonight, but do an indepth analysis tomorrow or Wednesday on the regional breakdowns, why the parties fared the way they did, where they need to go going forward, and also whether a coalition is viable or not in the case of another Conservative minority.
Sunday, 1 May 2011
Election Predictions
Here are my predictions based on the final polls. Considering how much has changed this election from last, I expect to get a whole whack of ridings wrong, but my overall prediction is pretty much in line with others so here we go.
Atlantic Canada
Tories pick up Avalon and Madawaska-Restigouche, while lose South-Shore-St. Margaret's to the NDP. The NDP also pick up St. John's South-Mount Pearl from the Liberals.
Liberals: 14 seats
Conservatives: 12 seats
NDP: 6 seats
Quebec
Due to rapid changes here, I will just give a general prediction not a riding by riding one.
NDP: 40 seats
Bloc Quebecois: 20 seats
Liberals: 8 seats
Conservatives: 5 seats
Independent: 1 seat (Andre Arthur)
Ontario
The Conservatives pick up Eglinton-Lawrence, Don Valley West, York Centre, Ajax-Pickering, hold Vaughan, regain Simcoe-Grey, pick up Brampton-Springdale, Brampton West, Mississauga South, Guelph, and Kingston & the Islands.
The NDP picks up Oshawa from the Conservatives, Parkdale-High Park, Beaches-East York, and Davenport from the Liberals.
Conservatives: 60 seats
Liberals: 25 seats
NDP: 22 seats
Manitoba
Winnipeg North flips back to the NDP, no other change from last election
Conservatives: 9 seats
NDP: 4 seats
Liberals: 1 seat
Saskatchewan
NDP picks up Saskatoon-Rosetown-Biggar, no other changes
Conservatives: 12 seats
NDP: 1 seat
Liberals: 1 seat
Alberta
Status quo
Conservatives: 27 seats
NDP: 1 seat
British Columbia
NDP picks up Surrey North and Vancouver Island North from the Conservatives and Esquimalt-Juan de Fuca from the Liberals
Conservatives: 20 seats
NDP: 12 seats
Liberals: 4 seats
North
Status quo, so one for each of the federalist parties
TOTALS
Conservatives: 146 seats
NDP: 87 seats
Liberals: 54 seats
Bloc Quebecois: 20 seats
Independent: 1 seat (Andre Arthur)
Atlantic Canada
Tories pick up Avalon and Madawaska-Restigouche, while lose South-Shore-St. Margaret's to the NDP. The NDP also pick up St. John's South-Mount Pearl from the Liberals.
Liberals: 14 seats
Conservatives: 12 seats
NDP: 6 seats
Quebec
Due to rapid changes here, I will just give a general prediction not a riding by riding one.
NDP: 40 seats
Bloc Quebecois: 20 seats
Liberals: 8 seats
Conservatives: 5 seats
Independent: 1 seat (Andre Arthur)
Ontario
The Conservatives pick up Eglinton-Lawrence, Don Valley West, York Centre, Ajax-Pickering, hold Vaughan, regain Simcoe-Grey, pick up Brampton-Springdale, Brampton West, Mississauga South, Guelph, and Kingston & the Islands.
The NDP picks up Oshawa from the Conservatives, Parkdale-High Park, Beaches-East York, and Davenport from the Liberals.
Conservatives: 60 seats
Liberals: 25 seats
NDP: 22 seats
Manitoba
Winnipeg North flips back to the NDP, no other change from last election
Conservatives: 9 seats
NDP: 4 seats
Liberals: 1 seat
Saskatchewan
NDP picks up Saskatoon-Rosetown-Biggar, no other changes
Conservatives: 12 seats
NDP: 1 seat
Liberals: 1 seat
Alberta
Status quo
Conservatives: 27 seats
NDP: 1 seat
British Columbia
NDP picks up Surrey North and Vancouver Island North from the Conservatives and Esquimalt-Juan de Fuca from the Liberals
Conservatives: 20 seats
NDP: 12 seats
Liberals: 4 seats
North
Status quo, so one for each of the federalist parties
TOTALS
Conservatives: 146 seats
NDP: 87 seats
Liberals: 54 seats
Bloc Quebecois: 20 seats
Independent: 1 seat (Andre Arthur)
Final Analysis of Campaign
I will post my seat projections later this evening when the final polls come out, but here are my thoughts so far for each of the parties.
Conservatives
They will win the most seats, but whether they gain or lose is still a question and likewise a majority looks unlikely but not impossible. Either way they made a couple of strategic errors which probably cost them. They were right to bring up the coalition issue, but they played it up way too much. Likewise they should have focused on Canada's strong economic position versus others. The economy is their strength and had they made that the ballot question they probably could have won a majority. Instead this election became more about which leader is most appealing and off course Jack Layton wins hands down.
Liberals
Ran a fairly solid campaign and had a reasonably balanced platform yet barring some last minute shift are on the brink of their worst showing ever. We will have to see the seat breakdown before saying too much, but here is my thoughts on what wrong. After being defeated in 2006, the Liberals never really rebuilt, they just assumed Canadians would naturally return to the Liberals at some point. They also never clearly defined what they stood for thus leaving it to others to define them. Likewise their obsession with urging NDP voters to vote Liberal to block the Tories may now have the opposite effect as with the NDP being well ahead in the polls, many Liberals who want to stop a Harper majority may now considering voting strategically and voting NDP. While there aren't a whole lot of Blue Liberals left, there is a possibility, albeit I wouldn't count on it, that in Ontario, especially the 905 belt, some Blue Liberals will bolt to the Tories to stop an NDP government. The only saving grace for the Liberals is they have a strong campaign team and also with a strong turnout at advanced polls, this just might save them in many ridings they were expected to lose.
Bloc Quebecois
If there is any party that is going to face a major electoral shell shocking it is the Bloc. There is actually a risk they could lose their official party status, although with their strong ground organization I don't think that is likely to happen. While few saw this dramatic a fall coming, I believe what really caused this was many people saw the Bloc as having outlived its usefulness. Back in 2003, it looked like the Liberals were going to sweep Quebec and annihiliate the Bloc, but then they got saved by the sponsorship scandal. In 2008, it looked like the Tories would make a breakthrough in Quebec, but Harper's stupid comments on the arts cost him here. With adscam still fresh in Quebecers memories and the Tories being offside with Quebec public opinion, it is easy for the Bloc Quebecois to win over those two parties. But with the NDP never having been in power either provincially or federally, there isn't really much Duceppe can attack them on. Bloc Quebecois is more a safe place to park one's votes if they find the other parties unappealing, but most Quebecers would rather vote for a party that can win nationally than one that cannot.
NDP
We will have to see the exact numbers, but this could be the historical breakthrough the NDP has long dreamed of. I believe their success is mainly because Jack Layton is a likeable person and also there is a large portion of the population that is delusioned with the two main parties. Many dislike Stephen Harper, but don't like Ignatieff either. Many want to turf the Conservatives from office, but aren't ready to return the Liberals to power, thus this is where the NDP suddenly comes into play. The big challenge will be how they perform with their increase in seats and whether this will be a permanate realignment in politics or just a blip on the radar.
Conservatives
They will win the most seats, but whether they gain or lose is still a question and likewise a majority looks unlikely but not impossible. Either way they made a couple of strategic errors which probably cost them. They were right to bring up the coalition issue, but they played it up way too much. Likewise they should have focused on Canada's strong economic position versus others. The economy is their strength and had they made that the ballot question they probably could have won a majority. Instead this election became more about which leader is most appealing and off course Jack Layton wins hands down.
Liberals
Ran a fairly solid campaign and had a reasonably balanced platform yet barring some last minute shift are on the brink of their worst showing ever. We will have to see the seat breakdown before saying too much, but here is my thoughts on what wrong. After being defeated in 2006, the Liberals never really rebuilt, they just assumed Canadians would naturally return to the Liberals at some point. They also never clearly defined what they stood for thus leaving it to others to define them. Likewise their obsession with urging NDP voters to vote Liberal to block the Tories may now have the opposite effect as with the NDP being well ahead in the polls, many Liberals who want to stop a Harper majority may now considering voting strategically and voting NDP. While there aren't a whole lot of Blue Liberals left, there is a possibility, albeit I wouldn't count on it, that in Ontario, especially the 905 belt, some Blue Liberals will bolt to the Tories to stop an NDP government. The only saving grace for the Liberals is they have a strong campaign team and also with a strong turnout at advanced polls, this just might save them in many ridings they were expected to lose.
Bloc Quebecois
If there is any party that is going to face a major electoral shell shocking it is the Bloc. There is actually a risk they could lose their official party status, although with their strong ground organization I don't think that is likely to happen. While few saw this dramatic a fall coming, I believe what really caused this was many people saw the Bloc as having outlived its usefulness. Back in 2003, it looked like the Liberals were going to sweep Quebec and annihiliate the Bloc, but then they got saved by the sponsorship scandal. In 2008, it looked like the Tories would make a breakthrough in Quebec, but Harper's stupid comments on the arts cost him here. With adscam still fresh in Quebecers memories and the Tories being offside with Quebec public opinion, it is easy for the Bloc Quebecois to win over those two parties. But with the NDP never having been in power either provincially or federally, there isn't really much Duceppe can attack them on. Bloc Quebecois is more a safe place to park one's votes if they find the other parties unappealing, but most Quebecers would rather vote for a party that can win nationally than one that cannot.
NDP
We will have to see the exact numbers, but this could be the historical breakthrough the NDP has long dreamed of. I believe their success is mainly because Jack Layton is a likeable person and also there is a large portion of the population that is delusioned with the two main parties. Many dislike Stephen Harper, but don't like Ignatieff either. Many want to turf the Conservatives from office, but aren't ready to return the Liberals to power, thus this is where the NDP suddenly comes into play. The big challenge will be how they perform with their increase in seats and whether this will be a permanate realignment in politics or just a blip on the radar.
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