Today, the Conservatives released their platform. Without going through all the details, it was generally focused on lower taxes, keeping spending under control, defence, spending on priorities, and reducing the deficit. I suspect it will do well amongst those who plan or are leaning Conservative while will make those who want to see the Conservatives defeated even more determined. It will appeal to the base as many feel the Conservatives have ignored their demands so their promise of smaller government will be enough to give them reason to show up, but not radical enough to scare off the moderates either. By the same token those who believe government is small enough now as it is, this will only re-enforce their determination to see that the Conservatives get defeated. In the past, many have said Liberal, Tory same old story. This was true prior to 1984 when both were centre-left and the only difference was the Liberals wanted to grow government at somewhat faster pace than the PCs. In the 90s both were centre-right favouring fiscal responsibility but abhohring an ideologically driven government unlike the NDP on the left and Reform/Alliance on the right. In this election, the contrast are far more noticeable. If you are someone who favours an activist government, believes spending on social programs trumps tax cuts, and believes government should do more, the Liberals are your party. If you favour lower taxes, a smaller government, and the view that individuals not the government is best suited on how to decide one should spend their money, the Conservatives are your party. Considering that 55-60% of Canadians favour the former it would appear the Liberals have the right platform, but with three (or four if you include the Green Party) favouring an activist government, and the Conservatives being the only party favouring a smaller government, they are probably just fine with having a platform that appeals to 40-45% of population as if they actually get in that range they would likely get a majority government. Also in Quebec, it is about a 70-30 split in favour of an activist government whereas in English Canada it is closer to a 50-50 split, and considering the Tories simply want to hold their seats in Quebec while gain an additional 12 seats in English Canada, this probably works fine for them.
In terms of polls, the Conservatives still have around a 10 point lead although most polls showing the Tories polling at or just slightly above last election while the Liberals polling about 2 points above. On a regional level, the Tories and Liberals are running neck and neck in Atlantic Canada with both around 35-37%. Considering the Liberals have won the majority of seats in the past three elections, if these results hold, the Tories would probably increase their seat count. The big question is what is the provincial breakdown which so far no poll has provided. In 2008, the Conservatives fell well below their floor in Newfoundland & Labrador due to the ABC campaign so the question remains whether they have gained throughout Atlantic Canada or have they simply returned to their traditional level of support in Newfoundland & Labrador. If they are polling at over 40% in Newfoundland & Labrador, they will probably pick up a seat or two there will remain around the same elsewhere while if only around 30% in Newfoundland & Labrador then their gains could be more substantial in other provinces in Atlantic Canada. In Quebec, the Bloc Quebecois has consistently polled under 40% suggesting they could face some trouble, but amongst the federalist parties, the Liberals, Tories, and NDP all hover around 20% and none have broken out from here, meaning despite the fact over 60% of Quebecers are planning to vote for federalist parties, the Bloc Quebecois will still probably win the majority of seats in Quebec. The Liberal support is strong on the Island of Montreal so they will win 10 seats minimum, but if only at 20% province wide, that means they are probably quite weak elsewhere in the province meaning they must do better if they wish to gain seats in Quebec. The Tories being at 20% means they would probably hold most if not all of the seats they hold now, but have little chance at making any big gains here. The only thing going in their favour is their support is heavily weighted towards older Quebecers who usually vote. In fact it seems like many of their supporters are amongst those who still voted Union Nationale in the 60s when most of Quebec switched to the Liberals and those who favoured the Credistes in the 70s. That group is rapidly dying off meaning a bleak future if they cannot gain elsewhere, but at least for this election, those people will likely vote thus meaning they may do a bit better than the polls suggest. The NDP could very well come in second in terms of votes, but due to the fact they have no stronghold in Quebec, they will almost certainly win fewer seats than both the Liberals and Tories unless their numbers change significantly. In Ontario, the gap has narrowed, but the Tories still have around a 5-9% lead and most polls showing them at or slightly above 40%. This means that they would easily win 45 seats, but around 5 seats they hold would be close ones, although they could still gain, but probably not enough to win a majority without gaining seats elsewhere. The Liberals have improved considerably in Ontario, but mostly at the expense of the NDP rather than the Tories and as long as the Tories remain above 40% in Ontario, their prospects of even winning a slim minority are not very good. Gaining soft NDP and Green votes may help them hold the Tories to a minority, but they need to bring the Tories down to under 35% nationally and have at least a 5% if not 10% lead in Ontario if they want to even win a weak minority. That means a lot will be at stake for them in the debates (which I will have more on this weekend). In the Prairies, the Tories are around 50% in Saskitoba being slightly under in Manitoba and slightly above in Saskatchewan while the NDP and Liberals are around stuck in the lows 20s meaning not much in terms of seat change here. In Alberta, most polls show the Tories above 55%, but almost all of them show them under the 65% they got in the last two elections. Still in terms of seats this means little as whether they get 55% or 75%, the seat count won't be much different. In British Columbia, most polls show the Tories falling into the 30s from the low 40s while the NDP and Liberals are each around 25%. Depending on whether the NDP and Liberals split the vote (like they did in 2004) or many voters vote strategically favouring whichever party has the best chance to beat the Tories (like in 2006), they could either hold their seats and maybe even gain a couple even with a lower share of the popular vote or they could lose some. But with their strength in the Interior and Fraser Valley, I would be surprised if the Tories fell below 16 seats, nonetheless based on the current polls Atlantic Canada and British Columbia could play a key roll. Whether the Tories gain seats in Atlantic Canada or not could determine whether they get a minority or majority and likewise whether they gain or lose seats in British Columbia could determine whether they get a majority of not. Next week is the debates and this could off course change things so until 5 days after the English debates (April 17th), I plan to leave my predictions as is. At that point, I will probably increase the number of safe seats and if one party gets some momentum I may even move a few safe seats into the at play seats.
Friday, 8 April 2011
Wednesday, 6 April 2011
A week before the debates
Unfortunately I lost my password on my last blog and was unable to get back in so I had to start a new one, but you can still see my other one at mlunn.blogspot.com. I will continue where I left off.
We have had a number of polls this week and all of them show a slight tightening of the race although the Tories are still well ahead, but with a strong minority, not a majority like last time around. In Ontario, most polls show the Tories ahead, but by a much smaller margin and things are close enough now that the Tories could just as easily lose a few of their close seats as they could pick up. Another surprise is how well the NDP is doing in Quebec and may even in votes beat the Liberals and Tories. However, it will still probably result in fewer seats as the NDP support is spread out whereas the Liberals are usually concentrated on the Island of Montreal and the Tories are somewhat less concentrated but still strongest in Quebec City and the Appalaches-Chaudiere region which is directly south of Quebec City.
In terms of events, not a lot on the policy front, but a lot on various controversies. The Tories have had two this week. The first is their banning of people attending their events who are not loyal partisan supporters. One 19 year girl from London was banned since she had a picture of her with Michael Ignatieff. I understand the need to keep out troublemakers, hecklers, and those who might pose a security risk, but trolling facebook for any images that suggest they might support another party seems like it is going too far. Rallies should not just be for the party faithful but also for the undecided who want to hear what the leaders have to say and then make an informed decision. Any party that wants to enhance its support must appeal beyond its base and since the Conservative base is not large enough to win a majority it seems counterproductive to not be open to those on the fence. The other issue is the Bruce Carson scandal. While Bruce Carson has not done anything in the PMO's office that was fraudalent, the fact he has multiple prior convictions and was still hired shows bad judgement on the PM's side. I know the PM won't do the screening himself, but this is definitely a case where whomever gets elected should promise better screening to prevent such an event from happening again.
Not to be outdone, the Liberals had their first major controversy today when Andre Forbes who is running in Manicouagan was found to have made racist remarks against aboriginals and also was the head of L'Association des droits des blancs (which means Association for rights of Whites). The Liberals did the right thing to drop him as a candidate and I doubt this will have lasting damage still it does say their vetting process could be better. Also this is not the first time something like this happened; in 2008, two Liberal candidates in Quebec were dropped also for making racist remarks against aboriginals. Considering the Liberals are generally the party that believes in equality of all Canadians and takes very strong stands against racism, it is odd someone with those views would run for them, but maybe it had more to do with which party was easiest to win the nomination for. In much of rural Quebec, the Liberal brand is so weak that riding associations are practically non-existent so not hard for anyone to take over one. In addition the chances of the Liberals actually winning this riding were close to zero, but it still doesn't look good. Nonetheless, Ignatieff handled it the best he could, so I doubt it will hurt the Liberals too much.
So far, the Tories have not been having the greatest campaign, while the Liberals have done surprisingly well. It is still early in the game and so I wouldn't make any bold predictions just yet. The Tories can certainly turn things around and the Liberals have plenty of time to make a major blunder so a lot can happen between now and election day. Considering how few Canadians are following the election so far, I don't expect the poll numbers to move much prior to the debates. Around April 17th, which is five days after the English debates, then you could see some major changes and I that point I will update my predictions based on what direction the polls move in. As such my predictions from my earlier blog have not changed as the change in the poll numbers has been quite minor and can easily reverse itself or continue in the same direction.
We have had a number of polls this week and all of them show a slight tightening of the race although the Tories are still well ahead, but with a strong minority, not a majority like last time around. In Ontario, most polls show the Tories ahead, but by a much smaller margin and things are close enough now that the Tories could just as easily lose a few of their close seats as they could pick up. Another surprise is how well the NDP is doing in Quebec and may even in votes beat the Liberals and Tories. However, it will still probably result in fewer seats as the NDP support is spread out whereas the Liberals are usually concentrated on the Island of Montreal and the Tories are somewhat less concentrated but still strongest in Quebec City and the Appalaches-Chaudiere region which is directly south of Quebec City.
In terms of events, not a lot on the policy front, but a lot on various controversies. The Tories have had two this week. The first is their banning of people attending their events who are not loyal partisan supporters. One 19 year girl from London was banned since she had a picture of her with Michael Ignatieff. I understand the need to keep out troublemakers, hecklers, and those who might pose a security risk, but trolling facebook for any images that suggest they might support another party seems like it is going too far. Rallies should not just be for the party faithful but also for the undecided who want to hear what the leaders have to say and then make an informed decision. Any party that wants to enhance its support must appeal beyond its base and since the Conservative base is not large enough to win a majority it seems counterproductive to not be open to those on the fence. The other issue is the Bruce Carson scandal. While Bruce Carson has not done anything in the PMO's office that was fraudalent, the fact he has multiple prior convictions and was still hired shows bad judgement on the PM's side. I know the PM won't do the screening himself, but this is definitely a case where whomever gets elected should promise better screening to prevent such an event from happening again.
Not to be outdone, the Liberals had their first major controversy today when Andre Forbes who is running in Manicouagan was found to have made racist remarks against aboriginals and also was the head of L'Association des droits des blancs (which means Association for rights of Whites). The Liberals did the right thing to drop him as a candidate and I doubt this will have lasting damage still it does say their vetting process could be better. Also this is not the first time something like this happened; in 2008, two Liberal candidates in Quebec were dropped also for making racist remarks against aboriginals. Considering the Liberals are generally the party that believes in equality of all Canadians and takes very strong stands against racism, it is odd someone with those views would run for them, but maybe it had more to do with which party was easiest to win the nomination for. In much of rural Quebec, the Liberal brand is so weak that riding associations are practically non-existent so not hard for anyone to take over one. In addition the chances of the Liberals actually winning this riding were close to zero, but it still doesn't look good. Nonetheless, Ignatieff handled it the best he could, so I doubt it will hurt the Liberals too much.
So far, the Tories have not been having the greatest campaign, while the Liberals have done surprisingly well. It is still early in the game and so I wouldn't make any bold predictions just yet. The Tories can certainly turn things around and the Liberals have plenty of time to make a major blunder so a lot can happen between now and election day. Considering how few Canadians are following the election so far, I don't expect the poll numbers to move much prior to the debates. Around April 17th, which is five days after the English debates, then you could see some major changes and I that point I will update my predictions based on what direction the polls move in. As such my predictions from my earlier blog have not changed as the change in the poll numbers has been quite minor and can easily reverse itself or continue in the same direction.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)