Updated Predictions

Now that the first few polls have come since the debates, I thought it would be time to update my projections.  Not a whole lot has changed.  The Conservatives did take a hit after the leaked AG report and recovered slightly, but still no higher than a week ago.  The Liberals needed a big boost if they were to realistically win the most seats and they did not get this, while the NDP seemed to get the biggest boost in the polls although still a long ways back from second place.  Anyways here are my updated projections by province.

Newfoundland & Labrador

Liberal: Labardor, Humber-St. Barbe-Baie Verte, Bonavista-Gander-Grand Falls-Windsor, Random-Burin-St. George's

NDP: St. John's East

Liberal-Tory race: Avalon

Liberal-NDP-Tory Battleground - St. John's South-Mount Pearl

Liberals: 4-6 seats
NDP: 1-2 seats
Conservatives: 0-2 seats

Nova Scotia

Liberals: Sydney-Victoria, Cape Breton-Canso, Kings-Hants, Halifax West, and Dartmouth-Cole Harbour

Conservatives: Central Nova and Cumberland-Colchester-Musquodoboit Valley

NDP: Sackville-Eastern Shore

Liberal-Tory battleground: West Nova

NDP-Tory battleground: South Shore-St. Margaret's

Liberal-NDP battleground: Halifax

Liberals: 5-7 seats
Conservatives: 2-4 seats
NDP: 1-3 seats

Prince Edward Island

Safe Liberal: Cardigan

Liberal-Tory battleground but lean Liberal: Charlottetown and Malpeque

Liberal-Tory battleground but lean Tory: Egmont

Liberals: 1-4 seats
Conservatives: 0-3 seats

New Brunswick

Conservatives: Fredericton, Fundy-Royal, New Brunswick Southwest, and Tobique-Mactaquac

Liberals: Beausejour

NDP: Acadie-Bathurst

Liberal-Tory battleground but lean Tory: Miramichi and Saint John

Liberal-Tory battleground and too close to call: Madawaska-Restigouche

Liberal-Tory battleground but lean Liberal: Moncton-Riverview-Dieppe

Conservatives: 4-8 seats
Liberals 1-5 seats
NDP: 1 seat

Atlantic Canada Totals:

Liberals 11-22 seats
Conservatives: 6-17 seats
NDP: 3-6 seats

Quebec

Bloc Quebecois: Gaspesie-Iles-de-la-Madeleine, Rimouski-Neigette-Temiscouata-Les Basques, Richmond-Arthabaska, Bas-Richelieu-Nicolet-Becancour, Shefford, Compton-Stanstead, Sherbrooke, Drummond, Saint Hyacinthe-Bagot, Saint Jean, Beauharnois-Salaberry, Vaudreuil-Soulanges, Chateauguay-Saint Constant, Saint Lambert, Longueuil-Pierre Boucher, St. Bruno-St. Hubert, Vercheres-Les Patriotes, Chambly-Borduas, Laurier-Saint Marie, Rosemont-La Petite-Patrie, Hochelaga, La Pointe-de-l'Ile, Laval, Alfred-Pellan, Marc-Aurele-Fortin, Terrebonne-Blainville, Riviere du Nord, Laurentides-Labelle, Riviere-des-Milles-Iles, Argenteuil-Papineau-Mirabel, Abitibi-Temiscamingue, Montcalm, Repentigny, Berthier-Maskinoge, Joliette, Trois Rivieres, Saint Maurice-Champlain, Portneuf-Jacques Cartier, Louis-Hebert, Quebec, Montmorency-Charlevoix-Haute-Cote Nord, Manicouagan, Chicoutimi-Le Fjord, Abitibi-Baie James-Nunavik-Eeyou

Liberals: Lac-St. Louis, Pierrefonds-Dollards, Saint Laurent-Cartierville, Mount Royal, Notre-Dame-de-Grace-Lachine, La Salle-Emard, Westmount-Ville Marie, Bourassa, St. Leonard-St. Michel, Honore-Mercier, Laval-les-Iles, Hull-Aylmer

Conservatives: Levis-Bellechasse, Lotbiniere-Chutes-de-la-Chaudiere, Beauce, Megantic-L'Erable, Pontiac, Jonquiere-Alma

Bloc-Liberal battlegrounds: Haute-Gaspesie-La Mitis-Matane-Metapadia, Brome-Missiquoi, Brossard-La Prairie, Ahuntsic, Jeanne-Le Ber, and Papineau

Bloc-Tory battlegrounds: Montmagny-L'Islet-Kamouraksa-Riviere du Loup, Louis-St. Laurent, Charlesbourg-Haute-Saint Charles, Beauport-Limoliou, and Roberval-Lac Saint Jean

Liberal-NDP battleground: Outremont

Bloc-Liberal-NDP three way race: Gatineau

Bloc Quebecois: 44 - 56 seats
Liberals: 12 - 20 seats
Conservatives: 6 - 11 seats
NDP: 0 - 2 seats

I know some may say why don't you have the NDP with more seats considering most polls show them doing as well if not better than the Conservatives and Liberals.  The reason for this is their support is not concentrated in anyone part of the province, whereas Liberal and Conservative support is more concentrated so even if they win fewer votes than the NDP, they will still get more seats.

Ontario:

Conservatives: Durham, Oshawa, Whitby-Oshawa, Newmarket-Aurora, York-Simcoe, Halton, Burlington, Ancaster-Dundas-Flamborough-Westdale, Niagara West-Glanbrook, St. Catherines, Niagara Falls, Simcoe North, Barrie, Dufferin-Caledon, Bruce-Grey-Owen Sound, Wellington-Halton Hills, Cambridge, Kitchener-Conestoga, Haldimand-Norfolk, Perth-Wellington, Oxford, Huron-Bruce, Elgin-Middlesex-London, Lambton-Kent-Middlesex, Chatham-Kent-Essex, Sarnia-Lambton, Essex, Parry Sound-Muskoka, Renfrew-Nippissing-Pembroke, Carleton-Mississippi Mills, Nepean-Carleton, Ottawa West-Nepean, Stormont-Dundas-South Glengarry, Leeds-Grenville, Lanark-Frontenac-Lennox & Addington, Haliburton-Kawartha Lakes-Brock, Prince Edward-Hastings, Peterborough, Northumberland-Quinte West

Liberals: Davenport, Toronto Centre, Beaches-East York, Don Valley East, Willowdale, St. Paul's, York South-Weston, York West, Etobicoke-Lakeshore, Etobicoke Centre, Etobicoke North, Scarborough Southwest, Scarborough Centre, Scarborough-Agincourt, Scarborough-Rouge River, Scarborough-Guildwood, Pickering-Scarborough East, Markham-Unionville, Richmond Hill, Mississauga-Brampton South, Mississauga East-Cooksville, Mississauga-Streetsville, London North Centre, Nippissing-Timiskaming, Ottawa South, and Ottawa-Vanier

NDP: Toronto-Danforth, Hamilton Centre, Hamilton East-Stoney Creek, London-Fanshawe, Windsor West, Windsor-Tecumseh, Thunder Bay-Rainy River, Thunder Bay-Superior North, Algoma-Manitoulin-Kapuskasing, Nickel Belt, and Ottawa Centre

Liberal-Tory battleground but lean Tory: Thornhill, Oakville, Brant, London West, Kenora, Ottawa-Orleans, and Glengarry-Prescott-Russell

Liberal-Tory battleground and too close to call: Ajax-Pickering, Vaughan, Oak Ridges-Markham, Brampton-Springdale, Brampton West, Mississauga South, Mississauga-Erindale, Kitchener Centre, Kitchener-Waterloo, and Kingston & the Islands

Liberal-Tory battleground and lean Liberal: Don Valley West, Eglinton-Lawrence, York Centre, Bramalea-Gore-Malton, and Guelph

NDP-Tory battleground: Sault Ste. Marie

Liberal-NDP battleground: Parkdale-High Park, Trinity-Spadina, and Sudbury

Tory-Independent battleground but lean Tory: Simcoe-Grey

Liberal-NDP-Tory battleground, but favours Tories vs. NDP: Welland

Liberal-NDP-Tory battleground, but favours Liberals vs. NDP: Hamilton Mountain

Conservatives: 39-65 seats
Liberals: 26-53 seats
NDP: 12-18 seats
Independent: 0-1 seat (Helena Guergis)

Manitoba

Conservatives: Dauphin-Swan River-Marquette, Selkirk-Interlake, Brandon-Souris, Portage-Lisgar, Provencher, Charleswood-St. James-Assinboia, Kildonan-St. Paul

NDP: Churchill and Winnipeg Centre

Liberal-Tory battleground but leans Tory: Winnipeg South and Saint Boniface

Liberal-Tory battleground but leans Liberal: Winnipeg South Centre

NDP-Tory battleground but leans NDP: Elmwood-Transcona

Liberal-NDP battleground and too close to call: Winnipeg North

Conservatives: 7-11 seats
NDP: 2-4 seats
Liberals: 0-4 seats

Saskatchewan

Conservatives: Prince Albert, Battlefords-Lloydminster, Cypress Hills-Grasslands, Souris-Moose Mountain, Yorkton-Melville, Regina-Lumsden-Lake Centre, Regina-Qu'appelle, Saskatoon-Wanuskewin, Saskatoon-Humboldt, and Blackstrap

Liberals: Wascana

Tory-NDP battleground but leans Tory: Palliser and Saskatoon-Rosetown-Biggar

Tory-NDP Battleground and too close to call: Desnethe-Missinippi-Churchill River

Conservatives: 10-13 seats
Liberals: 1 seat
NDP: 0-3 seats

Alberta

Conservatives: Fort McMurray-Athabasca, Peace River, Westlock-St. Paul, Yellowhead, Vegreville-Wainwright, Wetaskiwin, Red Deer, Crowfoot, Wild Rose, Medicine Hat, Macleod, Lethbridge, Calgary Southwest, Calgary West, Calgary-Nose Hill, Calgary Northeast, Calgary East, Calgary Southeast, Calgary Centre, Calgary Centre-North, Edmonton-Mill Woods-Beaumont, Edmonton-Leduc, Edmonton-Spruce Grove, Edmonton-St. Albert, Edmonton Centre, Edmonton East

Independent-Tory battleground but leans Tory - Edmonton-Sherwood Park

NDP-Tory battleground and too close to call - Edmonton-Strathcona

Conservatives: 26-28 seats
NDP: 0-1 seat
Independent: 0-1 seat (James Ford)

British Columbia

Conservatives: Prince George-Peace River, Cariboo-Prince George, Kamloops-Thompson-Cariboo, Okanagan-Shuswap, Kootenay-Columbia, Okanagan-Coquihalla, Kelowna-Lake Country, Nanaimo-Alberni, West Vancouver-Sunshine Coast-Sea to Sky Country, North Vancouver, Port Moody-Westwood-Port Coquitlam, Pitt Meadows-Maple Ridge-Mission, Richmond, Delta-Richmond East, Fleetwood-Port Kells, South Surrey-White Rock-Cloverdale, Langley, Abbotsford, Chilliwack-Fraser Canyon

NDP: Skeena-Bulkley Valley, British Columbia Southern Interior, Nanaimo-Cowichan, Victoria, Vancouver East, and Burnaby-New Westminster

Liberals: Vancouver-Quadra and Vancouver Centre

NDP-Tory battleground but leans Tory: Vancouver Island North

NDP-Tory battleground and too close to call: Esquimalt-Juan de Fuca, Burnaby-Douglas, and Surrey North

NDP-Tory battleground and leans NDP: New Westminster-Coquitlam

Liberal-Tory battleground and too close to call: Vancouver South

Green-Tory battleground but leans Tory: Saanich-Gulf Islands

Three way race favouring Liberals followed by Tories, then NDP: Newton-North Delta

Liberal-NDP battleground favouring the NDP: Vancouver-Kingsway

Conservatives: 19-26 seats
NDP: 6-13 seats
Liberals: 2-5 seats
Green Party: 0-1 seat (Elizabeth May)

North

Safe Liberal: Yukon

Liberal-Tory battleground but leans Tory: Nunavut

Liberal-NDP-Tory battleground and too close to call: Western Arctic

Liberals: 1-3 seats
Conservatives: 0-2 seats
NDP: 0-1 seat

National:

Conservatives: 113 - 173 seats
Liberals: 53 - 108 seats
Bloc Quebecois: 44 - 56 seats
NDP: 23 - 48 seats
Independent: 0 - 2 seats
Green Party: 0 - 1 seat

So in summary, the Conservatives still have a shot at a majority government and in the best case scenario would actually have a fairly decent one having their best showing since 1984 and third best since World War II.  By the same token, there is a greater chance that they won't get a majority than will and while under the worse case scenario they would still have 5 seats more than the Liberals, I would be surprised if we see an informal arrangement whereby the opposition agrees to back the Liberals and unlike the 2008 coalition, there probably wouldn't be nearly as much opposition.  In the case of the Liberals, they have virtually no chance at beating the Tories in terms of seats, but they can still improve greatly over 2008 which would allow for two things to happen, which are; 1. an informal arrangement with the other opposition parties to back them could allow Michael Ignatieff to become PM, 2. Even if this doesn't happen, Michael Ignatieff would likely get to stay on and get another shot in the next election.  Under the worse case scenario, they could fall to third place, albeit highly unlikely but they would still have more seats than the NDP.  Nonetheless a unite the left merger between the NDP and Liberals would increase greatly under this scenario.  Either way, they may have the worse showing in terms of the popular vote, but there is almost no chance of them doing worse than 1984 in terms of seats (they got 40 seats this election) and in fact despite them trailing in the polls there is still a slightly better than even chance of them performing better than they did in 2008.  For the Bloc Quebecois, they could gain or lose seats and maybe if lucky even set a record in terms of seats, but not the popular vote (49% is their record) as this time around they are much weaker than in 2004 or 1993 but face a more divided federalist opposition than in those years.  Either way, they will still win the majority of seats in Quebec even if they don't get the majority of votes.  For the NDP, there is a possibility, but not unlikely that they will break Ed Broadbent's seat record of 43 seats, while even in the worse case scenario, they will still do better than they did in 2004.  What they probably have the best chance of doing is winning at least one seat in 9 out of 10 provinces with PEI being the only province they have no chance at winning any seats.  For the two Independents, that I predicted could win, both are former Tories and are small "c" conservatives in terms of beliefs thus they would probably support the Tories on most legislation and if having them join the party would make a difference between and minority and majority, I suspect the party would let them join or at least get an agreement with them to support them on all confidence motions for the next four years but still be free to vote against them on individual bills which are not confidence motions.  For the Green Party, it is really a matter of whether Elizabeth May can win her seat or not.  If she can win her seat, the party will likely have a strong case for being in next elections' debates.  This would also be the first Green Party seat won in an election in Canada at any level albeit not the first ever in a country using the first past the post system, this happened in Britain last May when they elected their first Green MP.  Hopefully next week I can narrow things down a bit as poll numbers become clearer.