I will have more details over the next week or two, anyways here is my first post-mortem. This was called a Seinfield election and everybody said no much would change. They were wrong and it does show that elections do matter. This election may very well result in a political realignment with the Tories finally achieving their goal of being the natural governing party, the NDP as the main alternative and the Liberals and BQ fading into oblivion. Off course it is too early to say what will or won't but at least this looks far more plausible than it did 6 weeks ago.
Conservatives
The Conservatives wanted a majority government and they got it, so on the whole I would say this election was a success for them. I also think most thought it would be a bare majority, not the 166 seats they got and I doubt many actually thought they would win 70+ seats in Ontario and 2/3 of the seats in the GTA including 8.5 seats (Pickering-Scarborough East straddles the 905/416) in the 416 area code. That being said I think had the NDP surge not occurred, I don't think they would have made the gains they did in the GTA (which is where 80% of their pickups occurred). First this split the vote on the left allowing them to come up the middle in ridings like Don Valley East, Scarborough Centre, and Bramalea-Gore-Malton. Secondly many Blue Liberals probably bolted for the Tories at the last minute thus why they got 44% in Ontario, not the 38-41% most polls said and in terms of seats this makes a big difference. Although only predicted they would win 60 seats in Ontario, I will admit I thought that 70 seats was not as far fetched as some thought since I figured if they went up a few percentage points that would happen. After all, they got a greater share of the popular vote in Ontario than McGuinty got lost provincial election when he won 72 seats and roughly the same as Paul Martin did in 2004 when he won 75 seats in Ontario. Also another thing they did was they won a majority without Quebec which no Conservative government has done since 1917 when they had the conscription crisis. The fact they were able to win without Quebec could have some interesting ramfications which I will discuss in later posts.
NDP
Almost tripled their seat count, formed the official opposition, and made a huge breakthrough in Quebec. I think if you are dipper, you would have to be pretty happy with how well your party did. The only disappointment some might have as despite their gains, Canada will likely move to the right, not left, and they will have less clout in the upcoming parliament, but this all has to do with the fact the Tories won a majority which there is not much they can do about. They made gains in English Canada, although their gains in English Canada were far less impressive than Quebec. In fact they only had a net gain of 8 seats in English Canada and won one more than Ed Broadbent did in 1988, so it was really in Quebec where they surged ahead. In fact one could argue Canada broke along linguistic lines with English Canada swinging to the right by electing more Tories and Quebec swinging to the left by electing a lot more NDPs. Just as Quebec swung massively towards the NDP, they can easily take it away on its moments notice much as we saw with the provincial ADQ who nearly won in 2007 only to get wiped out a year and half later. The NDP has an opportunity to eventually form government, but there is no guarantee they will be the party that will replace the Tories. Now that they are the official opposition, they will come under much greater scrutiny than before and how they handle this will determine whether they supplant the Liberals as the main alternative to the Tories or was this just a one time event.
Liberals
Obviously on many fronts, this was an unmitigated disaster. They had their worst showing ever, their leader lost his own seat, they couldn't even stay in front in their stronghold of the GTA. Even in Atlantic Canada which is now called their new stronghold, they won fewer votes and seats than the Tories. Obviously they have a lot of rebuilding to do. I don't think they ran a horrible campaign and I think their loss was not just do to Michael Ignatieff being unpopular, but also other issues too. He maybe didn't help, but I think the party would have done poorly no matter who their leader was. The problem is there is still a strong sense of arrogance in the party that believes it is their God given right to govern. Many still harken back to past glories and still try to think of excuses for their poorer than expected showings in the past three elections. Had they taken their losses serious and realized they weren't accidents, I believe the party would be in much better shape than it was. Still the party is not dead and can someday form government again, but it will take a lot of rebuilding. I will have more on this in later posts as well as any possible unite the left merger.
Bloc Quebecois
The Liberals and Tories have both tried to wipe out the Bloc Quebecois, but both failed. Finally under the NDP, they succeeded. Although this is a non-partisan blog, I am a federalist and I am not the least bit sad to see them do as poorly as they did and nor will I be sad if the party goes under completely. Despite the fact the results surprised many, we could see the unravelling beginning as far back as 2003. In 2003, the Liberals had a huge lead in the polls in Quebec and looked like they would finish off the Bloc Quebecois. It was adscam that prevented this from happening. In 2008, it looked like the Tories might do the same, however Harper's stupid comments about cuts to the arts as well as the fact the Bloc was able to portray the Tories as too right wing for Quebec helped save them. In many ways the Bloc Quebecois had outlived its usefulness as separation will come through electing a PQ government provincially and having a referendum; electing BQ members will do nothing to advance the cause of separtism. Many in Quebec realized this and only voted Bloc due to disatsification with the alternatives. Quebecers are still angry at the Liberals over adscam, thus why they weren't an acceptable alternative, and the Tories are too right wing for Quebec as Quebec is without question the most left wing province in Canada, thus making them not an acceptable alternative. The NDP seemed like a possible alternative, but in the past they often advocated a strongly centralized government which is not popular in Quebec. This election, they promised to respect Quebec's provincial jurisdiction and being in sync with Quebec on the values question and not having been in government before, thus not doing anything to anger Quebecers, they seemed like a viable alternative to the Bloc Quebecois. The loss of the BQ does not however mean separtism is dead. Close to 40% of Quebecers are still separtist, they just realize that it will be achieved at the provincial, not federal level.
Green Party
Despite losing several votes largely due to less media attention, Elizabeth May won her own seat being the first Green MP elected in Canada. The same thing happened in Britain last election where the Greens lost votes but the leader won her seat, so seemed like a wise strategy. I argued that she should have been excluded from the debates and I stand by that argument, but now that she has won a seat, I believe the Greens have earned the right to be in the next debate in 2015. I still think though we should establish clear rules for who is in and who is not. My view is any party that gets a seat or over 10% of the popular vote is included.
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