Final Analysis of Campaign

I will post my seat projections later this evening when the final polls come out, but here are my thoughts so far for each of the parties.

Conservatives

They will win the most seats, but whether they gain or lose is still a question and likewise a majority looks unlikely but not impossible.  Either way they made a couple of strategic errors which probably cost them.  They were right to bring up the coalition issue, but they played it up way too much.  Likewise they should have focused on Canada's strong economic position versus others.  The economy is their strength and had they made that the ballot question they probably could have won a majority.  Instead this election became more about which leader is most appealing and off course Jack Layton wins hands down.

Liberals

Ran a fairly solid campaign and had a reasonably balanced platform yet barring some last minute shift are on the brink of their worst showing ever.  We will have to see the seat breakdown before saying too much, but here is my thoughts on what wrong.  After being defeated in 2006, the Liberals never really rebuilt, they just assumed Canadians would naturally return to the Liberals at some point.  They also never clearly defined what they stood for thus leaving it to others to define them.  Likewise their obsession with urging NDP voters to vote Liberal to block the Tories may now have the opposite effect as with the NDP being well ahead in the polls, many Liberals who want to stop a Harper majority may now considering voting strategically and voting NDP.  While there aren't a whole lot of Blue Liberals left, there is a possibility, albeit I wouldn't count on it, that in Ontario, especially the 905 belt, some Blue Liberals will bolt to the Tories to stop an NDP government.  The only saving grace for the Liberals is they have a strong campaign team and also with a strong turnout at advanced polls, this just might save them in many ridings they were expected to lose.

Bloc Quebecois

If there is any party that is going to face a major electoral shell shocking it is the Bloc.  There is actually a risk they could lose their official party status, although with their strong ground organization I don't think that is likely to happen.  While few saw this dramatic a fall coming, I believe what really caused this was many people saw the Bloc as having outlived its usefulness.  Back in 2003, it looked like the Liberals were going to sweep Quebec and annihiliate the Bloc, but then they got saved by the sponsorship scandal.  In 2008, it looked like the Tories would make a breakthrough in Quebec, but Harper's stupid comments on the arts cost him here.  With adscam still fresh in Quebecers memories and the Tories being offside with Quebec public opinion, it is easy for the Bloc Quebecois to win over those two parties.  But with the NDP never having been in power either provincially or federally, there isn't really much Duceppe can attack them on.  Bloc Quebecois is more a safe place to park one's votes if they find the other parties unappealing, but most Quebecers would rather vote for a party that can win nationally than one that cannot.

NDP

We will have to see the exact numbers, but this could be the historical breakthrough the NDP has long dreamed of.  I believe their success is mainly because Jack Layton is a likeable person and also there is a large portion of the population that is delusioned with the two main parties.  Many dislike Stephen Harper, but don't like Ignatieff either.  Many want to turf the Conservatives from office, but aren't ready to return the Liberals to power, thus this is where the NDP suddenly comes into play.  The big challenge will be how they perform with their increase in seats and whether this will be a permanate realignment in politics or just a blip on the radar.