A volatile election

Many predicted this would be a Seinfield election where not much would change.  This appears to be anything but the case as we may see a historical realignment.  I will hold off on my projections until Sunday evening, but outside of Quebec I hope to give a riding by riding projection but if the polls are too volatile I will give a generall seat projection by province.  For Quebec, too much has changed to realistically predict each seat.  The NDP will win at least 20 seats and possibly in excess of 50 seats, but the exact number is tough to determine.  The Bloc Quebecois will take a big hit and may even lose its official party status under the worse case scenario while the Tories will almost certainly lose seats in Quebec albeit not all.  The Liberals likewise should hold some of their West Montreal ridings but it won't be a good election for either of the two parties in Quebec.  Outside Quebec, I think the changes will be a little less dramatic than the polls suggest.  In Atlantic Canada, last time around, the Liberals got 34%, Tories 29%, and NDP 26% and since the polls are close to this and don't think you will see a whole lot of seat changes here and most of the seat changes will be in close ridings.  One thing that may hurt the NDP surge is they are strongest in Nova Scotia which has an unpopular provincial NDP government.  In Ontario, the Tories are steady in the upper 30s and may even get in the low 40s so whether they gain or lose will depend on whether the NDP and Liberals split the vote heavily or one moves ahead.  Based on the past bad experiences with an NDP government, I cannot see the NDP getting over 30% in Ontario and thus I think their pickups will be limited and they may even lose a couple of seats.  In Western Canada, the NDP surge still has yet to materialize as the Tories are ahead in all Western provinces and the NDP in second as usual.  The NDP may pick up some seats in British Columbia, but probably not very many.  Of the NDP gains they will overwhelmingly be in Quebec.  I also don't think it is a foregone conclusion they will come in second in terms of seats.  The Liberal vote is more concentrated and the Liberals have a better GOTV strategy in more ridings than the NDP does even though the NDP has a stronger GOTV strategy in the few ridings they are competitive in.  In fact I could still see the Liberals narrowly beating out the NDP, especially considering NDP support is soft and strongest amongst younger voters who are least likely to show up.  A Tory majority is unlikely but not impossible, especially if there is a strong split in Ontario and they do a good job of bringing out their supporters.

On a personal note, I have tried to make this blog as non-partisan as possible, but I am quite disturbed about the fact Canada may be moving to a more polarized political environment.  Having the Liberals and Progressive Conservatives who were both close to the centre served Canada well in the past and I believe the PC demise in 1993 and the rise of the Reform Party was a bad thing for Canada.  I likewise believe the demise of the Liberal party and replacement by the NDP would be a bad thing too.  Many European countries have polarized electorates between left and right and this is not a path I want to go down.  That is why my hope is if the Tories win a majority, they don't go too far to the right, especially on social issues.  I am fairly conservative on economic issues so if they follow the Thatcher/Reagan style on fiscal policies I am a little less concerned although I would hope they are more conciliatory to their opponents.  Likewise I hope the Liberals, not the NDP come in second in terms of seats so when Canadians do get rid of the Tories be it in a couple months through a coalition (which I am no fan of) or winning outright in 5-10 years down the road, hopefully it is the Liberals not the NDP.  Also the NDP have a pie in the sky platform which is common of many parties that don't expect to win and have many inexperienced candidates who may win their seats.  At least in provinces like Saskatchewan or Manitoba, the NDP has to make realistic promises and also has experienced candidates.

NDP Surge nationally?

With the NDP polling at an all time high and the other parties declining, there has been some speculation that Jack Layton will be our next PM.  I think this is far less likely than many make it out to be.  If we look at a regional level, Atlantic Canada has a high margin of error so probably better to do a riding by riding analysis or take the aggregate average of all polls.  In Ontario, the Tories are still polling close to or even slightly above the 39% they got last time around and considering they are strongest amongst those most likely to show up, the polls if they stay in place would actually result in them gaining rather than losing seats.  In the West, the Tories are still out in front and the NDP in second much like last time so despite some predictions the NDP will get over 100 seats, when one does a riding by riding analysis I am skeptical of anything above 80 seats and that is assuming they maintain their current level of support.  In terms of predictions, I will probably give a general one for Quebec as the shifts have been so great that relying on past polls really doesn't work.  I do believe the NDP will pick up quite a few seats in Quebec, but the exact number is still yet to be determined.  Elsewhere in Canada, not enough has changed to warrant any seat change predictions at this point.

CBC Vote Compass

The CBC vote compass has received a lot of criticism, anyways they have now given the top ten ridings in favour and against for each question asked.  While I won't go through all the details, I did notice a few interesting things.  On most questions, whichever answer favoured the Conservatives usually resulted in most and many cases all being in Conservative held ridings while the more left leaning response was typically in Vancouver, Winnipeg, Toronto, and Montreal and all in ridings where the Conservatives are not even competitive.  Another thing that jumped out is on a few questions such as closer relations with the US and a greater role of the private sector in health care, the top choices were from Quebec, but they were all in the Quebec City area and Appalaches-Chaudieres, otherwise those that are held by the Tories (also Andre Arthur's riding who usually votes with them anyways), so it does suggest this part of the province is more right wing than the other parts.  Lots of ones from the Prairies for the pro-Tory responses although on a few questions saw up to four ridings in New Brunswick all held by the Tories.  On the case of taxing the rich and corporations, those most against were in the GTA and were either ridings the Tories picked up in 2008 or Liberal held ones that are vulnerable.  Off course these were all wealthy ridings, but it does suggest that although the Liberal plan to raise corporate taxes may win them points amongst the soft NDP votes, it could cost them some of the more affluent GTA ridings which have gone Liberal in the past (this off course assumes the compass is representative).  Anyways here is the link so check it out http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/canadavotes2011/features/votecompass/map/

NDP surge

Based on the spate of recent polls, one cannot deny something is happening and possibly something quite big.  Until we see an established pattern, I don't plan to update my projections, but lets just say it looks like the NDP will win more than 2 seats in Quebec.  Outside Quebec, the NDP maybe doing well, but there is nothing really unusual about their numbers and I don't totally buy the idea that since Quebec has swung towards the NDP, so will English Canada.  If we look at each region we can see the following.

Atlantic Canada

The polls have high margins of error, but the NDP certainly has gained here, but still sits in third and considering there are strongest in Nova Scotia where they have an unpopular provincial NDP government, I don't expect them to gain a lot here.  Maybe a seat or two, but that is about it.  As for vote splitting, it is tough to say, however there are at least 5 ridingsif not more when incumbency is factored in where the Tories are over 45% meaning they will probably hold those ridings either way.  At this point I see no reason to alter the predictions here.

Ontario

Some polls show the NDP in the low 20s, but their polling in Ontario is no higher than they were 10 days before the election in 2004, 2006, and 2008 so I am quite skeptical about any gains here.  With the economy being a bigger issue in Ontario than other provinces and the NDP being seen as weak here, I expect they will finish in third.  In fact if an election were held today, I suspect the results in Ontario would be very similiar to 2008 with only a few close ridings changing hands.  Also, Ontario had an NDP government from 1990-1995 and considering voter turnout is much higher amongst those over 40 than under 40, many voters still remember this and will be very reluctant to vote for them.  Also in most ridings even with the changing polls it is still clear that the Liberals have a far better chance of defeating Tories so those who vote strategically will probably stick with the Liberals unless the NDP polls well ahead nationally

Western Canada

In the Prairies, the Tories got over 50% in 7 of the 9 ridings they won in Manitoba, and 10 of the 13 ridings they won in Saskatchewan and considering the NDP rise is having almost no impact on the Tories, I doubt it will result in too many seat changes here.  Also the NDP in Saskitoba is only around 25% which is close to what they got last time around.  In the case of British Columbia, this could cost the Tories seats, but most polls only show the NDP in the high 20s like last time around and considering the bad experience BC had with the NDP in power provincially during the 90s, I don't think they will get much above 30% and I doubt they will surpass the Tories as the Tories have a pretty strong base in BC to begin with.

Quebec

Quebec is a whole different story and no doubt if those numbers hold we could see a massive shift in many seats.  This would not be the first time this has happened in Quebec, after all in 1984, the PCs went from 1 to 58 seats, in the 2007 provincial election, the ADQ nearly formed government after only having 4 seats in the previous election so a huge NDP gain in Quebec is quite possible.  In fact considering Quebec is more left wing than any other province in Canada, I have often wondered why the NDP didn't do better here.  Most of their support comes from the Bloc Quebecois, so that is the party that is most likely to suffer.  It may actually save the Tories some seats due to vote splitting as there aren't a whole lot of Tory-NDP switchers in Quebec.  I also don't think it will hurt the Liberals as badly as some think since Liberal support in the Montreal area is mostly on the West Island which is fairly affluent and the NDP has never done well amongst the affluent.  If anything, their gains will more likely be on the East Island which is working class and also Bloc Quebecois.  Either way, I suspect my predictions are probably fairly off but until the polls stabilize and we get a clearer picture, I don't plan to change anything.  One thing I have found is Ontario is usually the easiest province to predict in terms of seats while Quebec is the most difficult as it is not uncommon for Quebecers to move en masse towards a certain party.  In the case of Ontario, any party that won a riding by more than 10% will usually hold it and I suspect most if not all ridings won by more than 10% last time around will back the same party.  I will update my predictions after the Easter weekend when we have a clearer idea of what is going on.  The one thing that is clear is this election could be a game changer despite all the predictions that this would be a Seinfield election and we would get an almost identical parliament.

Abortion and Coalition issue

An MP from Saskatchewan, Brad Trost talked about cutting off funding to planned parenthood due to their pro-abortion position.  The Tories wouldn't say whether they would or not, but made clear they would not past an anti-abortion law.  Certainly this plays to the hidden agenda issue although I don't think based on the current polls and likely results a women's right to choose is threatened.  It is true that the majority of Conservative MPs oppose abortion, however they do have a sizable minority who are pro-choice so they would need to win at least 190 seats to have any chance at passing an anti-abortion bill.  While some point out that there are some pro-life Liberals, many of those came from Rural Ontario which is now largely Conservative and of the few remaining, I suspect it would be a whipped vote if the Tories had a majority thus it wouldn't pass.  In 1987, Bill Domm's private members bill to reinstate the death penalty received the support of the majority of PC MPs, but a minority voted against it combined with almost all opposition members, so it was defeated despite the fact the PCs had a strong majority of 211 seats. 

On the issue of a coalition, Ignatieff stated in a CBC interview that whichever party had the most seats would get a chance to govern first, but if they lost the confidence of the house and the governor general called on his party to form the government, he would be willing to.  From a constitutional point of view, what he said is entirely correct.  However, when it comes to coalitions, there are two things that need to be considered.  First is it constitutionally valid and if the Tories have a minority and the opposition leader who wishes to become PM can command the confidence of the majority of members in the house of commons, then absolutely it is.  The second is whether it is morally valid and this is a gray area that depends heavily on public opinion.  While the opposition parties can ignore public opinion if they wish to, they do so at their own peril.  If the Tories lose a whole whack of seats and the Liberals get over 100 seats and the NDP and Liberals have the majority of seats in the House of Commons, then the public might support such an arrangement, however if the Tories increase their seat count but fall short of a majority, the Liberals lose seats but still remain the official opposition, the public would likely react quite negatively and both the NDP and Liberals would likely taking a beating in the next election.  While what Ignatieff said was constitutionally correct, it was probably not the smartest thing to say.  Even if planning such a move, better to not say anything about it during an election and then do it after and hope that by the time the next election rolls around, people forget about the broken promise.  While I will discuss the probability of a coalition in more detail after the election results are in, I don't think the Liberals will try to form government unless they gain several seats and the Tories lose several.  If it was 120 seats for the Tories and 100 seats for the Liberals then they might, but if it produces similiar results to the last election or the Tories gain seats but fall short of majority, then I don't think we will see a coalition.  Likewise despite Harper's unwillingness to cooperate, I think if backed into a corner he would make enough concessions to get one party on side albeit very reluctantly.

Prediction Updates

Here are the changes I am making

Nova Scotia

Halifax - NDP

Liberals 5-6 seats
Conservatives 2-4 seats
NDP 2-3 seats

Atlantic Canada

Liberals 11-21 seats
Conservatives 6-17 seats
NDP 4-6 seats

Quebec

Portneuf-Jacques Cartier back too close to call being an Independent-BQ battleground.  Since Andre Arthur usually votes with the Tories they could probably count on his vote if they fall just short of a majority

Outremont - NDP

Bloc Quebecois: 43-56 seats
Liberals: 12-20 seats
Conservatives: 6-11 seats
NDP: 1-2 seats
Independent: 0-1 seat

Ontario

Conservatives: Thornhill, Oakville, Brant, Kenora, Glengarry-Prescott-Russell

Liberals: Bramalea-Gore-Malton and Guelph

Conservatives: 44-63 seats
Liberals: 28-48 seats
NDP: 12-18 seats

Manitoba

Conservatives: Winnipeg South

Conservatives: 8-11 seats
Liberals: 0-3 seats
NDP: 2-4 seats

Saskatchewan

Conservatives: Palliser

Conservatives: 11-13 seats
Liberals: 1 seat
NDP: 0-2 seats

National Totals:

Conservatives: 120 - 171 seats
Liberals: 55 - 102 seats
Bloc Quebecois: 43 - 56 seats
NDP: 25 - 47 seats
Independent: 0 -3 seats (all centre-right so would probably back the Tories on most legislation and confidence votes)
Green Party: 0 - 1 seats

After the Easter weekend or if any dramatic changes occur, I will update my predictions.

Health Care attacks ads and BC NDP leadership race

The Liberals released some attack ads quoting Harper as wanting to scrap the Canada Health Act.  While he may have been misquoted, there is no question in the past that Harper when president of the National Citizens' Coalition was no fan of the Canada Health Act.  Considering health care is a Tory weak spot, they could work, at the same time it might make the Liberals appear desperate.  Also if you use the same fear tactics election after election, people tune out after a while.  In addition, I believe there needs to be an adult conversation on health care.  Very few Canadians support a US style health care system whereby one can be denied treatment due to their inability to pay.  However, whether it is publicly or privately delivered as long as it is publicly funded is debatable and does not undermine universal health care.  I don't have too strong a preference for either and believe it should be judged on a case by case basis.  In fact private delivery of health care is perfectly legal provided it is publicly funded.  The other one is allowing a parallel private system whereby the public system is available for everyone but those who wish to leave the system and pay for their treatment in a separate parallel private one is permitted.  Although the Canada Health Act does not explicitly prohibit this, many argue such system is not compatible with the Canada Health Act and also many provincial regulations prohibit such system.  It should be noted almost every other developed country has a parallel private system including normally more left leaning countries such as Sweden, Germany, Netherlands, and France so hardly a radical idea.  At the same time it is not a pancea solution to health care either as the Fraser Institute may argue.  Also there are some private clinics where patients can pay for medically necessary services already operating in Canada, especially in BC and Quebec.  Whether one favours or opposes such a system, I believe the debate should be civil and should look at the pros and cons, not involve fearmongering.  Those opposed to it should stop calling it US style health care and the end of universal health care and likewise those who favour it should stop saying we should adopt it because North Korea and Cuba are the only other countries to prohibit it (which is not entirely true as other countries do have some restrictions on private health care and it is not totally banned in Canada, albeit governments certainly try to severely restrict it).  Finally, one can favour scrapping the Canada Health Act simply because they believe health care is a provincial responsibility and should be left up to the provinces.  It is important to note that under the constitution, health care is a provincial not federal responsibility.  The CHA only sets rules the provinces must follow in order to receive funding; the provinces can ignore them if they are willing to forgo the funding.  Likewise considering how important universal health care is to Canadians from coast to coast and that any provincial government who privatized it would have their party annihiliated in the next election, I doubt it would disappear even if Harper did scrap the CHA.  Still, politics is about perception not reality, and many do believe health care is a federal responsibility and do believe scrapping the CHA would mean the end of universal health care. 

The other issue is the BC NDP talk a sharp turn to the left by choosing left wing ideologue Adrian Dix as their new leader over the more moderate Mike Farnworth.  While a lot can happen between now and the next election, I think the NDP's chances with Mike Farnworth would have been much better than with Adrian Dix.  Many of those in the centre who are tired of the BC Liberals and looking for an alternative will stick with the BC Liberals.  In fact, ironically the BC Liberals choose to move towards the centre with their choice of Christy Clark as opposed to Kevin Falcon who was more right wing.  Also many on the right who were planning to vote for the BC Conservatives since they didn't like either the BC Liberals or BC NDP but didn't dislike one more than the other will now probably hold their noses up and vote BC Liberal just to keep the NDP out.  Most in BC want a government who can work with both labour and business, not one who is too heavily indebted to one and hostile to the other.  And likewise the hardcore ideas Dix advocates are largely ideas of the passed that NDP parties in other provinces, federally, and likewise social democratic parties in other countries have ditched.

Recently many polls have showed the NDP surging in Quebec.  Since it has only been a few days, I will wait until the end of the week before updating my predictions as sometimes surges stick and other times they retreat.  I will say though that since the NDP support is not concentrated in any region of Quebec, 25% will not result in a whole lot of seats in Quebec.  In fact the Liberals could get 15% and the NDP 25% in Quebec yet the Liberals would still win more seats simply because their vote is more concentrated.

Updated Predictions

Now that the first few polls have come since the debates, I thought it would be time to update my projections.  Not a whole lot has changed.  The Conservatives did take a hit after the leaked AG report and recovered slightly, but still no higher than a week ago.  The Liberals needed a big boost if they were to realistically win the most seats and they did not get this, while the NDP seemed to get the biggest boost in the polls although still a long ways back from second place.  Anyways here are my updated projections by province.

Newfoundland & Labrador

Liberal: Labardor, Humber-St. Barbe-Baie Verte, Bonavista-Gander-Grand Falls-Windsor, Random-Burin-St. George's

NDP: St. John's East

Liberal-Tory race: Avalon

Liberal-NDP-Tory Battleground - St. John's South-Mount Pearl

Liberals: 4-6 seats
NDP: 1-2 seats
Conservatives: 0-2 seats

Nova Scotia

Liberals: Sydney-Victoria, Cape Breton-Canso, Kings-Hants, Halifax West, and Dartmouth-Cole Harbour

Conservatives: Central Nova and Cumberland-Colchester-Musquodoboit Valley

NDP: Sackville-Eastern Shore

Liberal-Tory battleground: West Nova

NDP-Tory battleground: South Shore-St. Margaret's

Liberal-NDP battleground: Halifax

Liberals: 5-7 seats
Conservatives: 2-4 seats
NDP: 1-3 seats

Prince Edward Island

Safe Liberal: Cardigan

Liberal-Tory battleground but lean Liberal: Charlottetown and Malpeque

Liberal-Tory battleground but lean Tory: Egmont

Liberals: 1-4 seats
Conservatives: 0-3 seats

New Brunswick

Conservatives: Fredericton, Fundy-Royal, New Brunswick Southwest, and Tobique-Mactaquac

Liberals: Beausejour

NDP: Acadie-Bathurst

Liberal-Tory battleground but lean Tory: Miramichi and Saint John

Liberal-Tory battleground and too close to call: Madawaska-Restigouche

Liberal-Tory battleground but lean Liberal: Moncton-Riverview-Dieppe

Conservatives: 4-8 seats
Liberals 1-5 seats
NDP: 1 seat

Atlantic Canada Totals:

Liberals 11-22 seats
Conservatives: 6-17 seats
NDP: 3-6 seats

Quebec

Bloc Quebecois: Gaspesie-Iles-de-la-Madeleine, Rimouski-Neigette-Temiscouata-Les Basques, Richmond-Arthabaska, Bas-Richelieu-Nicolet-Becancour, Shefford, Compton-Stanstead, Sherbrooke, Drummond, Saint Hyacinthe-Bagot, Saint Jean, Beauharnois-Salaberry, Vaudreuil-Soulanges, Chateauguay-Saint Constant, Saint Lambert, Longueuil-Pierre Boucher, St. Bruno-St. Hubert, Vercheres-Les Patriotes, Chambly-Borduas, Laurier-Saint Marie, Rosemont-La Petite-Patrie, Hochelaga, La Pointe-de-l'Ile, Laval, Alfred-Pellan, Marc-Aurele-Fortin, Terrebonne-Blainville, Riviere du Nord, Laurentides-Labelle, Riviere-des-Milles-Iles, Argenteuil-Papineau-Mirabel, Abitibi-Temiscamingue, Montcalm, Repentigny, Berthier-Maskinoge, Joliette, Trois Rivieres, Saint Maurice-Champlain, Portneuf-Jacques Cartier, Louis-Hebert, Quebec, Montmorency-Charlevoix-Haute-Cote Nord, Manicouagan, Chicoutimi-Le Fjord, Abitibi-Baie James-Nunavik-Eeyou

Liberals: Lac-St. Louis, Pierrefonds-Dollards, Saint Laurent-Cartierville, Mount Royal, Notre-Dame-de-Grace-Lachine, La Salle-Emard, Westmount-Ville Marie, Bourassa, St. Leonard-St. Michel, Honore-Mercier, Laval-les-Iles, Hull-Aylmer

Conservatives: Levis-Bellechasse, Lotbiniere-Chutes-de-la-Chaudiere, Beauce, Megantic-L'Erable, Pontiac, Jonquiere-Alma

Bloc-Liberal battlegrounds: Haute-Gaspesie-La Mitis-Matane-Metapadia, Brome-Missiquoi, Brossard-La Prairie, Ahuntsic, Jeanne-Le Ber, and Papineau

Bloc-Tory battlegrounds: Montmagny-L'Islet-Kamouraksa-Riviere du Loup, Louis-St. Laurent, Charlesbourg-Haute-Saint Charles, Beauport-Limoliou, and Roberval-Lac Saint Jean

Liberal-NDP battleground: Outremont

Bloc-Liberal-NDP three way race: Gatineau

Bloc Quebecois: 44 - 56 seats
Liberals: 12 - 20 seats
Conservatives: 6 - 11 seats
NDP: 0 - 2 seats

I know some may say why don't you have the NDP with more seats considering most polls show them doing as well if not better than the Conservatives and Liberals.  The reason for this is their support is not concentrated in anyone part of the province, whereas Liberal and Conservative support is more concentrated so even if they win fewer votes than the NDP, they will still get more seats.

Ontario:

Conservatives: Durham, Oshawa, Whitby-Oshawa, Newmarket-Aurora, York-Simcoe, Halton, Burlington, Ancaster-Dundas-Flamborough-Westdale, Niagara West-Glanbrook, St. Catherines, Niagara Falls, Simcoe North, Barrie, Dufferin-Caledon, Bruce-Grey-Owen Sound, Wellington-Halton Hills, Cambridge, Kitchener-Conestoga, Haldimand-Norfolk, Perth-Wellington, Oxford, Huron-Bruce, Elgin-Middlesex-London, Lambton-Kent-Middlesex, Chatham-Kent-Essex, Sarnia-Lambton, Essex, Parry Sound-Muskoka, Renfrew-Nippissing-Pembroke, Carleton-Mississippi Mills, Nepean-Carleton, Ottawa West-Nepean, Stormont-Dundas-South Glengarry, Leeds-Grenville, Lanark-Frontenac-Lennox & Addington, Haliburton-Kawartha Lakes-Brock, Prince Edward-Hastings, Peterborough, Northumberland-Quinte West

Liberals: Davenport, Toronto Centre, Beaches-East York, Don Valley East, Willowdale, St. Paul's, York South-Weston, York West, Etobicoke-Lakeshore, Etobicoke Centre, Etobicoke North, Scarborough Southwest, Scarborough Centre, Scarborough-Agincourt, Scarborough-Rouge River, Scarborough-Guildwood, Pickering-Scarborough East, Markham-Unionville, Richmond Hill, Mississauga-Brampton South, Mississauga East-Cooksville, Mississauga-Streetsville, London North Centre, Nippissing-Timiskaming, Ottawa South, and Ottawa-Vanier

NDP: Toronto-Danforth, Hamilton Centre, Hamilton East-Stoney Creek, London-Fanshawe, Windsor West, Windsor-Tecumseh, Thunder Bay-Rainy River, Thunder Bay-Superior North, Algoma-Manitoulin-Kapuskasing, Nickel Belt, and Ottawa Centre

Liberal-Tory battleground but lean Tory: Thornhill, Oakville, Brant, London West, Kenora, Ottawa-Orleans, and Glengarry-Prescott-Russell

Liberal-Tory battleground and too close to call: Ajax-Pickering, Vaughan, Oak Ridges-Markham, Brampton-Springdale, Brampton West, Mississauga South, Mississauga-Erindale, Kitchener Centre, Kitchener-Waterloo, and Kingston & the Islands

Liberal-Tory battleground and lean Liberal: Don Valley West, Eglinton-Lawrence, York Centre, Bramalea-Gore-Malton, and Guelph

NDP-Tory battleground: Sault Ste. Marie

Liberal-NDP battleground: Parkdale-High Park, Trinity-Spadina, and Sudbury

Tory-Independent battleground but lean Tory: Simcoe-Grey

Liberal-NDP-Tory battleground, but favours Tories vs. NDP: Welland

Liberal-NDP-Tory battleground, but favours Liberals vs. NDP: Hamilton Mountain

Conservatives: 39-65 seats
Liberals: 26-53 seats
NDP: 12-18 seats
Independent: 0-1 seat (Helena Guergis)

Manitoba

Conservatives: Dauphin-Swan River-Marquette, Selkirk-Interlake, Brandon-Souris, Portage-Lisgar, Provencher, Charleswood-St. James-Assinboia, Kildonan-St. Paul

NDP: Churchill and Winnipeg Centre

Liberal-Tory battleground but leans Tory: Winnipeg South and Saint Boniface

Liberal-Tory battleground but leans Liberal: Winnipeg South Centre

NDP-Tory battleground but leans NDP: Elmwood-Transcona

Liberal-NDP battleground and too close to call: Winnipeg North

Conservatives: 7-11 seats
NDP: 2-4 seats
Liberals: 0-4 seats

Saskatchewan

Conservatives: Prince Albert, Battlefords-Lloydminster, Cypress Hills-Grasslands, Souris-Moose Mountain, Yorkton-Melville, Regina-Lumsden-Lake Centre, Regina-Qu'appelle, Saskatoon-Wanuskewin, Saskatoon-Humboldt, and Blackstrap

Liberals: Wascana

Tory-NDP battleground but leans Tory: Palliser and Saskatoon-Rosetown-Biggar

Tory-NDP Battleground and too close to call: Desnethe-Missinippi-Churchill River

Conservatives: 10-13 seats
Liberals: 1 seat
NDP: 0-3 seats

Alberta

Conservatives: Fort McMurray-Athabasca, Peace River, Westlock-St. Paul, Yellowhead, Vegreville-Wainwright, Wetaskiwin, Red Deer, Crowfoot, Wild Rose, Medicine Hat, Macleod, Lethbridge, Calgary Southwest, Calgary West, Calgary-Nose Hill, Calgary Northeast, Calgary East, Calgary Southeast, Calgary Centre, Calgary Centre-North, Edmonton-Mill Woods-Beaumont, Edmonton-Leduc, Edmonton-Spruce Grove, Edmonton-St. Albert, Edmonton Centre, Edmonton East

Independent-Tory battleground but leans Tory - Edmonton-Sherwood Park

NDP-Tory battleground and too close to call - Edmonton-Strathcona

Conservatives: 26-28 seats
NDP: 0-1 seat
Independent: 0-1 seat (James Ford)

British Columbia

Conservatives: Prince George-Peace River, Cariboo-Prince George, Kamloops-Thompson-Cariboo, Okanagan-Shuswap, Kootenay-Columbia, Okanagan-Coquihalla, Kelowna-Lake Country, Nanaimo-Alberni, West Vancouver-Sunshine Coast-Sea to Sky Country, North Vancouver, Port Moody-Westwood-Port Coquitlam, Pitt Meadows-Maple Ridge-Mission, Richmond, Delta-Richmond East, Fleetwood-Port Kells, South Surrey-White Rock-Cloverdale, Langley, Abbotsford, Chilliwack-Fraser Canyon

NDP: Skeena-Bulkley Valley, British Columbia Southern Interior, Nanaimo-Cowichan, Victoria, Vancouver East, and Burnaby-New Westminster

Liberals: Vancouver-Quadra and Vancouver Centre

NDP-Tory battleground but leans Tory: Vancouver Island North

NDP-Tory battleground and too close to call: Esquimalt-Juan de Fuca, Burnaby-Douglas, and Surrey North

NDP-Tory battleground and leans NDP: New Westminster-Coquitlam

Liberal-Tory battleground and too close to call: Vancouver South

Green-Tory battleground but leans Tory: Saanich-Gulf Islands

Three way race favouring Liberals followed by Tories, then NDP: Newton-North Delta

Liberal-NDP battleground favouring the NDP: Vancouver-Kingsway

Conservatives: 19-26 seats
NDP: 6-13 seats
Liberals: 2-5 seats
Green Party: 0-1 seat (Elizabeth May)

North

Safe Liberal: Yukon

Liberal-Tory battleground but leans Tory: Nunavut

Liberal-NDP-Tory battleground and too close to call: Western Arctic

Liberals: 1-3 seats
Conservatives: 0-2 seats
NDP: 0-1 seat

National:

Conservatives: 113 - 173 seats
Liberals: 53 - 108 seats
Bloc Quebecois: 44 - 56 seats
NDP: 23 - 48 seats
Independent: 0 - 2 seats
Green Party: 0 - 1 seat

So in summary, the Conservatives still have a shot at a majority government and in the best case scenario would actually have a fairly decent one having their best showing since 1984 and third best since World War II.  By the same token, there is a greater chance that they won't get a majority than will and while under the worse case scenario they would still have 5 seats more than the Liberals, I would be surprised if we see an informal arrangement whereby the opposition agrees to back the Liberals and unlike the 2008 coalition, there probably wouldn't be nearly as much opposition.  In the case of the Liberals, they have virtually no chance at beating the Tories in terms of seats, but they can still improve greatly over 2008 which would allow for two things to happen, which are; 1. an informal arrangement with the other opposition parties to back them could allow Michael Ignatieff to become PM, 2. Even if this doesn't happen, Michael Ignatieff would likely get to stay on and get another shot in the next election.  Under the worse case scenario, they could fall to third place, albeit highly unlikely but they would still have more seats than the NDP.  Nonetheless a unite the left merger between the NDP and Liberals would increase greatly under this scenario.  Either way, they may have the worse showing in terms of the popular vote, but there is almost no chance of them doing worse than 1984 in terms of seats (they got 40 seats this election) and in fact despite them trailing in the polls there is still a slightly better than even chance of them performing better than they did in 2008.  For the Bloc Quebecois, they could gain or lose seats and maybe if lucky even set a record in terms of seats, but not the popular vote (49% is their record) as this time around they are much weaker than in 2004 or 1993 but face a more divided federalist opposition than in those years.  Either way, they will still win the majority of seats in Quebec even if they don't get the majority of votes.  For the NDP, there is a possibility, but not unlikely that they will break Ed Broadbent's seat record of 43 seats, while even in the worse case scenario, they will still do better than they did in 2004.  What they probably have the best chance of doing is winning at least one seat in 9 out of 10 provinces with PEI being the only province they have no chance at winning any seats.  For the two Independents, that I predicted could win, both are former Tories and are small "c" conservatives in terms of beliefs thus they would probably support the Tories on most legislation and if having them join the party would make a difference between and minority and majority, I suspect the party would let them join or at least get an agreement with them to support them on all confidence motions for the next four years but still be free to vote against them on individual bills which are not confidence motions.  For the Green Party, it is really a matter of whether Elizabeth May can win her seat or not.  If she can win her seat, the party will likely have a strong case for being in next elections' debates.  This would also be the first Green Party seat won in an election in Canada at any level albeit not the first ever in a country using the first past the post system, this happened in Britain last May when they elected their first Green MP.  Hopefully next week I can narrow things down a bit as poll numbers become clearer.

Guelph Student vote and Helena Guergis story

Yesterday, there was a controversy about the special ballots used at the University of Guelph so students could vote early.  The Tories wanted the ballots to be thrown out since it was not authorized by Elections Canada, there was partisan material inside the polling station, and they were not allowed to have a scrutineer there during the vote.  Others have accussed the Tory agent of disrupting the voting and attempting to grab the ballot box.  I don't know all the details so here is my opinion on what should have been done depending on the scenario.  Elections Canada promised to count these ballots, but not allow anymore of these type polls.  Low turnout amongst younger voters and the fact exams are occurring during advanced polling, while election day is when many are moving back home for the summer, I realize the difficulties in voting and applaud making efforts to make it easier for students to vote.  Still, I believe the polling station should be pre-authorized, there should be no partisan literature within 200m of the voting place, and all parties should be allowed to have a scrutineer present, however a party's failure to have a scrutineer not show up is not sufficient grounds to discount the votes.  Otherwise as long as parties are allowed to provide scrutineers, that is what matters.  If one isn't able to provide one, that is their problem.  Likewise disrupting the voting and trying to grab the ballot box is unacceptable as well.  If this did happen, the person who did it should be charged for violating the elections act.  If one thinks a poll is illegal, the proper response is to ask Elections Canada to investigate and if you don't like their response then challenge it in court.  Trying to disrupt the vote is not the proper way to deal with this.  Even had Elections Canada disqualified the votes at this ballot box, those who voted could still vote in advanced polls or on election day.  Also on election day if taking out this poll would have resulted in a different candidate winning the riding, I have no doubt that candidate will apply for a judicial recount or during the recount try to convince the judge to throw out the ballots from this poll.  I don't support voter suppression, but nor do I support illegal voting either.  I cannot say what the answer is here, but if any rules were broken, hopefully they are rectified and those who broke them are punished.

In the case of Helena Guergis, this is really old news.  I suspect she is doing this just to increase her chance of winning her own riding.  While I agree that she is not guilty of the things she is accussed of, it is important to understand that all parties have the right to remove an individual whom they don't want in their party.  At the end of the day it is up to the voters in the riding to decide if it was the right or wrong decision.  I have always supported the right of parties to expel members and I have also always supported the right of people to cross the floor to another party (which Guergis did not do).  At the end of the day the voters have the final say.  In the case of Scott Brison and Belinda Stronach, it looks like the voters agreed with their decision while for Garth Turner and Wajid Khan, it looks like they didn't. 

The Debates

After having watched the debates and heard the feedback, I would probably say Harper came out on top, but Layton had a strong showing too.  Nevertheless, I cannot see this as a game changer and suspect any change in the polls will come due to other issues, not this one.

Harper: Was calm throughout the debate and looked prime-ministerial.  Despite having lots of opposition jabs against him, he for the large part came out unscathed which is really what he had to do.  I don't think he said or did anything to increase his support, but his performance should at least help firm up the support he already has.

Ignatieff: Had a rough start and came off as somewhat aggressive as well as repeating the same lines over and over again which as annoying as it is can be effective in drilling a certain point in.  He did however, improve as the debate went on and since people tend to remember more what happens towards the end rather than beginning, this should probably help.  He did what he needed to, in order to help ensure those Liberals who sat out last election show up, but not much to win support from those who are not already Liberals, thus will his performance may make a Harper majority somewhat less likely, it also will make it a lot more difficult for the Liberals to win.  In fact I would say the odds of him beating Harper in terms of seats are fairly low at the moment, but we shall await the polls over the next few days before confirming him out.

Layton: His usual performance and had a number of good one liners, especially on Ignatieff's poor attendance record for votes.  His main goal was to still relevant and prevent being squeezed out by the two main parties which I think he largely accomplished.  I doubt this will be enough to catapault him into second place or get above 20% in the polls, but should at least help at the moment from being squeezed out, although on election day if either the Liberals and Tories are close to tied or Harper is on the cusp of a majority he will probably get squeezed out.

Duceppe: An alright performance.  He has been in more debates than any of the other leaders although with English being his second language that does put him at somewhat of a disadvantage.  This was really a warm up for him as tomorrow night as what really matters.

Since I have other commitments I will not able to see the French debates, but I do plan to watch them online before commenting on those.  As promised, I will update my predictions for English Canada on Saturday and for Quebec on Sunday.

AG bombshell and foreign voting

Today there was a leak showing a negative draft report from the auditor general released in January that the Tories misspent a lot of money on the G8/G20.  Certainly this doesn't help the Tories prior to the debates and has the potential to be a game changer much the way the income trust leak was.  Whether it will be a game changer or not, we will have to wait until the end of the week before we see the results.  Some scandals seem to stick and others don't and it is difficult to know which category this will fall on.  If still front page news by Friday, then it probably will hurt the Tories, but if largely forgotten but then, its impact will likely be rather small.  The three opposition parties called for the full report to be released while the Tories realizing this could sink their campaign also agreed to have the full report released.  The problem here is that the Auditor General must release the report to the Speaker of the house where it will be tabled in parliament and since parliament is not sitting this is not possible until after the election.  One could argue we should change the rules, but until they are changed, we will have to wait until the election to find out the exact details.  Whether it will be devastating news for the government or something relative minor, I really don't want to speculate.  Nonetheless even without the final report, this still could hurt the Tories if the opposition is able to establish a narrative of this government being secretive and wasteful spenders.  At this point, a lot depends on who you trust most.  As for the leak, I don't condone releasing confidential information regardless of the cause.  The means never justify the ends.  At the same time even if the person who released it did it to harm the Tory campaign, I doubt any of the parties or senior ranking officials had anything to do with the illegal release so trying to hit them over this likely won't work.

There has been some talk about Ignatieff voting in foreign elections.  In the case of the United States, he is not an American citizen and would not be eligible to vote therefore unless he voted illegally (which I think is extremely unlikely) he did not vote.  He may have endorsed Kerry in 2004, but considering most Canadians and pretty much every Liberal wanted Kerry to win, I don't see anything too controversial here.  In the case of Britain, he did admit to voting in the 1997 election, however under British law, anyone who is a legal resident of Britain and a citizen of the UK, Ireland, or a Commonwealth country is eligible to vote.  Since Canada is a commonwealth country, Canadians residing in the UK are eligible to vote in British elections.  It is true British citizens living in Canada cannot vote in Canadian elections, but voting rights are not always reciprocal.  Since he paid taxes there, I don't see what the big deal is as I suspect most Canadians if they lived abroad and had the right to vote in the country they lived in, they would vote so no real big deal.  As for him voting in Canadian elections while abroad, he said he did in some, but didn't give a number.  One can only vote in Canadian elections if they have resided in Canada during the past 5 years and are a Canadian citizen so I wouldn't be surprised if he missed voting in some Canadian elections, not because he was disloyal to his native country, but simply because he couldn't vote.  Anyways tomorrow is the debates, so depending on how late they go and how tired I am, I may or may not post tomorrow night, but certainly on Wednesday I will.

NDP Platform and other issues

Today, the NDP released their platform which seemed a like a smart time to do so.  With the debates just a few days away, this can help them regain some momentum as so far they are being squeezed out which is always a risk.  Lots of spending promises, but seemed rather fiscally responsible which is not something the NDP is known for.  On the one side it is similiar enough to the Liberal platform that one could argue if you are on the left and want to see Harper defeated, you might as well vote for the party that can.  It also plays to the idea that both parties have a hidden agenda to form a coalition if the Tories get another minority.  The NDP off course could easily counterattack this by pointing out the Liberals have a long history of running to the left but governing to the right, so you cannot trust them and it you want a centre-left government, the NDP is your only option.

Today, Gilles Duceppe asked for the French debates to be rescheduled to a different time as they would occur during the playoff opening game between the Montreal Canadiens and Boston Bruins thus this would mean fewer viewers.  The NDP and Liberals both supported this while the Tories said it was up to the broadcasting consortium.  I think they should reschedule as debates should be trying to get as many to tune in as possible.  The other issue is while campaigning in Quebec, Harper promised to defend supply management which many called hypocritical since he has long argued for doing away with the Canadian Wheat Board monopoly.  On the political front his stance makes sense as the CWB is deeply unpopular in Alberta so it gives him a chance to throw a bone to his base while in Saskatchewan and Manitoba, most farmers may support it, but the Tories won all those ridings by such large margins any lost votes amongst wheat and barley farmers will have little impact on them.  By contrast supply management is mostly amongst dairly and poultry farmers and they are especially large in Quebec so opposing this could cost the Tories what few seats they have in Rural Quebec and may even throw a few rather safe Tory ridings in Ontario into jeopardy and I suspect in the final weeks, Harper wants to focus on the urban and suburban ridings in Ontario, not have to worry about holding their rural ones.  Philosophically, I oppose the Wheat Board monopoly for two reasons since farmers in other provinces besides the Prairies have the right to sell on the open market so, so should those in the Prairies and also I generally oppose the idea of forced collectivism.  I think individuals should be free to do as they wish so long as they don't infringe on other's rights.  If it is a such a good idea, they should encourage farmers to sell under the Wheat Board through persuasion not coercision.  In terms of supply management I am torn on this issue.  In theory I oppose it, but the problem is our main competitiors, the United States and the European Union heavily subsidize their farm products thus unless supply management was replaced with subsidies, dairy and poultry farmers would go out of business.  The free market can only work here if all trading partners apply it, not just if some apply it.  Between subsidies and supply management, I see supply management as the lesser evil since it doesn't cost taxpayers anything.  I think we should though eliminate it if the EU and US promise to eliminate their subsidies in those areas, but only once this is done. 

In terms of predictions, here is what they will be if the debates are not a game changer which is a big if at this point.

Conservatives 121-172 seats
Liberals 55-102 seats
Bloc Quebecois 44-56 seats
NDP 24-46 seats

So this means as long as the Tories hold their ground, they can still win a majority, but it means running a solid campaign for the remainder of the election campaign.  Likewise it ensures they will win the next election, but if they lose several seats, it will likely be the end of the Harper's political career as I could see him hanging on if they get around 140 seats, but if they fall to 121 seats, I suspect he will have no choice but to resign as Conservative leader.  For the Liberals, it is almost a guarantee they will form at least the official opposition meaning that they will be in the best position to replace the Tories once the public gets tired of them which could happen this election, next one, or perhaps a few done the road.  If they don't have an outstanding performance in the debates, they can kiss winning the next election goodbye, however if they got 102 seats, I suspect Michael Ignatieff would get another chance in the next election and they would likewise be well positioned to win the following election.  For the Bloc Quebecois, unless something dramatic happens, it looks like they will win the majority of seats in Quebec as usual, but not the overwhelming majority.  If the NDP's goal is the replace the Liberals as the alternative to the Tories much the way the Labour Party did in Britain around 100 years ago, they better see some dramatic changes between now and May 2nd.  They do however still have a reasonable, albeit not likely chance of beating Ed Broadbent's record of 43 seats during the 1988 election.  Likewise as long as they don't bomb in the debates, they shouldn't have to worry about losing their official party status (fewer than 12 seats) which was a concern during the 90s, but hasn't been recently and most in the NDP probably hope it doesn't become one anytime soon.  These are not official predictions, I will update those five days after the debates.

The Debates/Les Debats preview

On April 12, 2011 the English debates will be held while on April 14, 2011, the French debates will be held.  Below will summarize what each party needs to do in each debate if they want it to come off in their favour.  Certainly a knockout punch could change everything, but considering that last one to occur federally was in 1984 when Mulroney said has famous line, "You had an option sir"; there haven't been any since and I wouldn't count on one happening.  Ignatieff as a former professor as a fairly strong debater but considering this is his first campaign, I doubt he will do great, but nor do I think he will perform poorly.  We have already seen Harper in three debates in each time he is pretty good at keeping his cool and usually only re-enforces for his supporters why they should vote for him, while does little to appeal to those who aren't considering voting for him.  On April 17, 2011, I will update the projections in English Canada and depending on the numbers, I hope to increase the number of safe seats for each party and perhaps if there is a strong enough shift change some safe seats into the vulnerable.  On April 19, 2011 I will do the same for Quebec so we will have a good idea of where things stand going into the final two weeks.  The reason I plan to wait five days is it takes time for things to sink in, never mind how the debate is spun can have just as big an impact as how it actually goes.

The English Debate

Conservatives: Considering Harper when aggressive can turn people off, he really just needs to hold his ground and come out unscathed.  This won't put them in majority territory, but will at least keep them at their current support and if they can have a strong final two weeks, they can still get their much coveted majority.

Liberals: This is do or die for them.  If they cannot get any momentum here, they will not win more seats than the Tories.  The Tories have done a good job of demonizing Ignatieff so if he performs better than the low expectations of him, this should help.  Most importantly, he needs to come across as prime-ministerial.  Attacking Harper isn't enough as if he wants to win, he has to look like a prime-minister in waiting not a strong opposition leader.  If he does this, expect the numbers to tighten although I doubt the Liberals will pull ahead right away, but if they can get some momentum and run a strong second half, they might just pull of a weak minority.

Bloc Quebecois:  This is really a warm up for Duceppe as he is not on the ballot in English Canada while few Anglophones in Quebec will even consider voting for the Bloc.  This simply gives him a chance to see what will come at him in the French debate which is what really matters for him.

NDP:  The main point for him is to stay relevant.  The biggest risk for the NDP is being marginalized by the Liberals so he has to without saying it directly argue that the Tories are going to win again and the NDP not the Liberals are the most effective opposition party.  He also needs to argue that for voters on the left side of the spectrum, the NDP is the only party you can trust to keep their promises and this can be done by pointing out how in the past the Liberals have tried to appeal to progressive voters yet only ignore them once in power.

Les Debats Francais

Conservatives:  For the Conservatives, their goal is to simply hold the seats they have in Quebec and not lose any.  They need to point out all the good things they have done for Quebec and also argue what Quebecers will have a more effective voice in Ottawa with a Conservative MP than a Bloc one.  Since almost all the ridings in contention, their main competitor is the Bloc and not the Liberals (as in Atlantic Canada and Ontario) or NDP (as in BC and Saskatchewan), Harper's main focus should be on the Bloc.  The Liberals will win seats in Quebec, but their strongholds are far removed from the areas the Tories are competitive in.  In fact there are few if any ridings in Quebec where both the Liberals and Tories are competitive. 

Liberals:  Quebecers have often preferred their native son, but considering Michael Ignatieff speaks French fluently, this is his chance to impress Quebecers.  If the party wants to win the election, they cannot just rely on Ontario, they must also gain seats in Quebec too.  Stephen Harper is more unpopular in Quebec than any other province and with 2/3 wanting him removed from power, he needs to convince Quebecers that the Liberals are the best party to vote for if they want to remove Stephen Harper from power.  He also needs to point out the benefits Quebec would receive with a Liberal government.  Finally he needs to appeal to Francophone minorities outside Quebec as several ridings with large Francophone communities (West Nova, Miramichi, Madawaska-Restigouche, Monton-Riverview-Dieppe, Sudbury, Ottawa-Orleans, Glengarry-Prescott-Russell and Saint Boniface) are competitive ridings so if he can convince Francophones outside Quebec that their Liberals are the party that best represents them, this could also help pick up some of the ridings mentioned above and strengthen their hold on the one's they already hold..

Bloc Quebecois: This is the debate that matters for Gilles Duceppe.  He not only needs to tear Harper apart, but must deal with the Liberal and NDP threat.  He needs to argue that only the Bloc Quebecois represents Quebec interests and that all the other parties don't care about Quebec and if they want to ensure their party interests are represented, they need to vote Bloc.  He needs to find as many examples as possible where the other parties have taken positions that are offside with Quebecers such as the Churchill Falls loans for example.  If he only focuses on Harper, he could get sideswiped by one of the other two parties much the way in 2006 he focused mostly on the Liberals and got sideswiped by the Tories. 

NDP:  They are polling at almost 20% in Quebec, but are not concentrated in any area unlike the Liberals or Tories thus they need to better to pick up the seats they want.  In addition they not only appeal to the federalist voters, but many separtists are left of centre in their views and would consider voting NDP as their second choice so Jack Layton needs to point out how most Quebecers are progressive in their views and if they want a progressive voice in parliament, the NDP is the only party who can provide this.

I will also provide a summary on the debates on the actual day, but I will not change any of my seat projections until five days after.  I will again update my seat projections on April 25, 2011 with one week to go and make my final projections on the evening of May 1, 2011 after all the polls have been released and it is less than 24 hours before the polls close.

Conservative Platform and Polls

Today, the Conservatives released their platform.  Without going through all the details, it was generally focused on lower taxes, keeping spending under control, defence, spending on priorities, and reducing the deficit.  I suspect it will do well amongst those who plan or are leaning Conservative while will make those who want to see the Conservatives defeated even more determined.  It will appeal to the base as many feel the Conservatives have ignored their demands so their promise of smaller government will be enough to give them reason to show up, but not radical enough to scare off the moderates either.  By the same token those who believe government is small enough now as it is, this will only re-enforce their determination to see that the Conservatives get defeated.  In the past, many have said Liberal, Tory same old story.  This was true prior to 1984 when both were centre-left and the only difference was the Liberals wanted to grow government at somewhat faster pace than the PCs.  In the 90s both were centre-right favouring fiscal responsibility but abhohring an ideologically driven government unlike the NDP on the left and Reform/Alliance on the right.  In this election, the contrast are far more noticeable.  If you are someone who favours an activist government, believes spending on social programs trumps tax cuts, and believes government should do more, the Liberals are your party.  If you favour lower taxes, a smaller government, and the view that individuals not the government is best suited on how to decide one should spend their money, the Conservatives are your party.  Considering that 55-60% of Canadians favour the former it would appear the Liberals have the right platform, but with three (or four if you include the Green Party) favouring an activist government, and the Conservatives being the only party favouring a smaller government, they are probably just fine with having a platform that appeals to 40-45% of population as if they actually get in that range they would likely get a majority government.  Also in Quebec, it is about a 70-30 split in favour of an activist government whereas in English Canada it is closer to a 50-50 split, and considering the Tories simply want to hold their seats in Quebec while gain an additional 12 seats in English Canada, this probably works fine for them.

In terms of polls, the Conservatives still have around a 10 point lead although most polls showing the Tories polling at or just slightly above last election while the Liberals polling about  2 points above.  On a regional level, the Tories and Liberals are running neck and neck in Atlantic Canada with both around 35-37%.  Considering the Liberals have won the majority of seats in the past three elections, if these results hold, the Tories would probably increase their seat count.  The big question is what is the provincial breakdown which so far no poll has provided.  In 2008, the Conservatives fell well below their floor in Newfoundland & Labrador due to the ABC campaign so the question remains whether they have gained throughout Atlantic Canada or have they simply returned to their traditional level of support in Newfoundland & Labrador.  If they are polling at over 40% in Newfoundland & Labrador, they will probably pick up a seat or two there will remain around the same elsewhere while if only around 30% in Newfoundland & Labrador then their gains could be more substantial in other provinces in Atlantic Canada.  In Quebec, the Bloc Quebecois has consistently polled under 40% suggesting they could face some trouble, but amongst the federalist parties, the Liberals, Tories, and NDP all hover around 20% and none have broken out from here, meaning despite the fact over 60% of Quebecers are planning to vote for federalist parties, the Bloc Quebecois will still probably win the majority of seats in Quebec.  The Liberal support is strong on the Island of Montreal so they will win 10 seats minimum, but if only at 20% province wide, that means they are probably quite weak elsewhere in the province meaning they must do better if they wish to gain seats in Quebec.  The Tories being at 20% means they would probably hold most if not all of the seats they hold now, but have little chance at making any big gains here.  The only thing going in their favour is their support is heavily weighted towards older Quebecers who usually vote.  In fact it seems like many of their supporters are amongst those who still voted Union Nationale in the 60s when most of Quebec switched to the Liberals and those who favoured the Credistes in the 70s.  That group is rapidly dying off meaning a bleak future if they cannot gain elsewhere, but at least for this election, those people will likely vote thus meaning they may do a bit better than the polls suggest.  The NDP could very well come in second in terms of votes, but due to the fact they have no stronghold in Quebec, they will almost certainly win fewer seats than both the Liberals and Tories unless their numbers change significantly.  In Ontario, the gap has narrowed, but the Tories still have around a 5-9% lead and most polls showing them at or slightly above 40%.  This means that they would easily win 45 seats, but around 5 seats they hold would be close ones, although they could still gain, but probably not enough to win a majority without gaining seats elsewhere.  The Liberals have improved considerably in Ontario, but mostly at the expense of the NDP rather than the Tories and as long as the Tories remain above 40% in Ontario, their prospects of even winning a slim minority are not very good.  Gaining soft NDP and Green votes may help them hold the Tories to a minority, but they need to bring the Tories down to under 35% nationally and have at least a 5% if not 10% lead in Ontario if they want to even win a weak minority.  That means a lot will be at stake for them in the debates (which I will have more on this weekend).  In the Prairies, the Tories are around 50% in Saskitoba being slightly under in Manitoba and slightly above in Saskatchewan while the NDP and Liberals are around stuck in the lows 20s meaning not much in terms of seat change here.  In Alberta, most polls show the Tories above 55%, but almost all of them show them under the 65% they got in the last two elections.  Still in terms of seats this means little as whether they get 55% or 75%, the seat count won't be much different.  In British Columbia, most polls show the Tories falling into the 30s from the low 40s while the NDP and Liberals are each around 25%.  Depending on whether the NDP and Liberals split the vote (like they did in 2004) or many voters vote strategically favouring whichever party has the best chance to beat the Tories (like in 2006), they could either hold their seats and maybe even gain a couple even with a lower share of the popular vote or they could lose some.  But with their strength in the Interior and Fraser Valley, I would be surprised if the Tories fell below 16 seats, nonetheless based on the current polls Atlantic Canada and British Columbia could play a key roll.  Whether the Tories gain seats in Atlantic Canada or not could determine whether they get a minority or majority and likewise whether they gain or lose seats in British Columbia could determine whether they get a majority of not.  Next week is the debates and this could off course change things so until 5 days after the English debates (April 17th), I plan to leave my predictions as is.  At that point, I will probably increase the number of safe seats and if one party gets some momentum I may even move a few safe seats into the at play seats.

A week before the debates

Unfortunately I lost my password on my last blog and was unable to get back in so I had to start a new one, but you can still see my other one at mlunn.blogspot.com.  I will continue where I left off.

We have had a number of polls this week and all of them show a slight tightening of the race although the Tories are still well ahead, but with a strong minority, not a majority like last time around.  In Ontario, most polls show the Tories ahead, but by a much smaller margin and things are close enough now that the Tories could just as easily lose a few of their close seats as they could pick up.  Another surprise is how well the NDP is doing in Quebec and may even in votes beat the Liberals and Tories.  However, it will still probably result in fewer seats as the NDP support is spread out whereas the Liberals are usually concentrated on the Island of Montreal and the Tories are somewhat less concentrated but still strongest in Quebec City and the Appalaches-Chaudiere region which is directly south of Quebec City.

In terms of events, not a lot on the policy front, but a lot on various controversies.  The Tories have had two this week.  The first is their banning of people attending their events who are not loyal partisan supporters.  One 19 year girl from London was banned since she had a picture of her with Michael Ignatieff.  I understand the need to keep out troublemakers, hecklers, and those who might pose a security risk, but trolling facebook for any images that suggest they might support another party seems like it is going too far.  Rallies should not just be for the party faithful but also for the undecided who want to hear what the leaders have to say and then make an informed decision.  Any party that wants to enhance its support must appeal beyond its base and since the Conservative base is not large enough to win a majority it seems counterproductive to not be open to those on the fence.  The other issue is the Bruce Carson scandal.  While Bruce Carson has not done anything in the PMO's office that was fraudalent, the fact he has multiple prior convictions and was still hired shows bad judgement on the PM's side.  I know the PM won't do the screening himself, but this is definitely a case where whomever gets elected should promise better screening to prevent such an event from happening again.

Not to be outdone, the Liberals had their first major controversy today when Andre Forbes who is running in Manicouagan was found to have made racist remarks against aboriginals and also was the head of L'Association des droits des blancs (which means Association for rights of Whites).  The Liberals did the right thing to drop him as a candidate and I doubt this will have lasting damage still it does say their vetting process could be better.  Also this is not the first time something like this happened; in 2008, two Liberal candidates in Quebec were dropped also for making racist remarks against aboriginals.  Considering the Liberals are generally the party that believes in equality of all Canadians and takes very strong stands against racism, it is odd someone with those views would run for them, but maybe it had more to do with which party was easiest to win the nomination for.  In much of rural Quebec, the Liberal brand is so weak that riding associations are practically non-existent so not hard for anyone to take over one.  In addition the chances of the Liberals actually winning this riding were close to zero, but it still doesn't look good.  Nonetheless, Ignatieff handled it the best he could, so I doubt it will hurt the Liberals too much.

So far, the Tories have not been having the greatest campaign, while the Liberals have done surprisingly well.  It is still early in the game and so I wouldn't make any bold predictions just yet.  The Tories can certainly turn things around and the Liberals have plenty of time to make a major blunder so a lot can happen between now and election day.  Considering how few Canadians are following the election so far, I don't expect the poll numbers to move much prior to the debates.  Around April 17th, which is five days after the English debates, then you could see some major changes and I that point I will update my predictions based on what direction the polls move in.  As such my predictions from my earlier blog have not changed as the change in the poll numbers has been quite minor and can easily reverse itself or continue in the same direction.