With the Federal election over and my travels this summer I have taken a break from blogging. Today was a sad day in the world of politics with the passing of Jack Layton. He was well liked by many even those who strongly disagreed with his views much like myself. He embodied a style of politics that was different yet very appealing to what many consider quite cynical. Unlike many politicians who try to win by arguing they are the only one's who can stop someone else who will do lots of bad things, Jack Layton focused on the positive changes his party could bring. He tried to get people vote for the NDP, not to vote from them in order to stop someone else. He was also a very personable and one who people could easily relate to. No doubt his strong likeability helped endure many to him and those who in the past had written off the NDP were no willing to give it a look. He also was willing to take on big challenges. When he took over the NDP in 2003, they only had 13 seats and were struggling to hold official party status. In much of the country the party was largely irrelevant. Under his leadership, he increased the seats each time and also made the party competitive in areas it previously wasn't. More than anything, he ignored the cynics who called his vision and goals unrealistic. As we saw in the last election, he took the NDP to new heights it had never seen. Sadly, he will never get to see the fruits of his hard work. The party will have big shoes to fill, but I will talk about that in a later post. In the mean time my condolensces to his wife, children, and other family members and friends. Now is the time to remember his contribution to public life. Tomorrow the focus can be on the future of the party post Layton.
In other news, we have five provincial elections coming up this Fall. Three which I would call yawners. Barring something totally unforeseen, I expect Brad Wall to easily be re-elected in Saskatchewan, Robert Ghiz to easily be re-elected in PEI (which maybe the only good news the Liberals get this year anywhere in Canada), and Kathy Dunderdale to easily win in Newfoundland & Labrador although probably not by quite the gigantic margins Danny Williams did. Manitoba however is anything but certain. It looked like the PCs were on track to replace the NDP, but after Greg Selinger's strong showing during the floods and the return of the Winnipeg Jets, it is too close to a call and a lot will come down the campaign. The South side of Winnipeg is ultimately where it will be determined who wins thus whomever takes most of the seats in this area will likely go on to win the election.
Here in Ontario, where my focus will be, the odds definitely favour the PCs winning the most seats, but still too early to tell whether it will be a majority or minority. Likewise the Liberals could eke out a minority if they run a strong campaign and could even win a majority of Tim Hudak makes a collasal error. The NDP will likely gain seats, but whether it will be a strong showing like they had federally or only minor gains remains to be seen. I will also talk about the issues as well as bring up some federally. I feel too often controversial topics are avoided by the leaders so I want to bring them up on the blog as they should be discussed even if the politicians don't want to. I will probably start blogging more regularly after the Labour Day weekend.
Monday 22 August 2011
Sunday 15 May 2011
Post-Mortem by Provinces
This will probably be my last major post prior to the Ontario election this Fall. Since we have a majority government, there is no chance at a coalition and will be little drama on the throne speech or budget. Both will pass and the opposition will vote solidly against it without having to worry about the government falling. After the stunning defeat, I don't expect the Liberals to have a leadership race for sometime, although I will cover that when it happens.
Newfoundland & Labrador
Danny Williams is gone as premier and the new premier Kathy Dunderdale endorsed the Tories, however from reading many comments in the media, I still figured there was a lot of anger at the Tories over their broken promise on equalization. They did recover somewhat since they got 28% vs. 17%, which appears to me that all of those who always voted Tory in every election save 2008 returned to them, but those who voted for them most of the time, but occassionally for other parties stayed with the other parties. The Liberals held their ground for the most part as this was the only province they came in first and one of two where they won the majority of seats. The NDP picked up the other St. John's seats, but with no ground organization outside St. John's, they weren't able to gain elsewhere. Although I got the seat count right here, I was totally surprised like many that the Tories were able to pick up Labrador. Of all the seat changes in Atlantic Canada, that was probably the biggest shocker. I figured Avalon was their best shot if the Tories were to regain seats in Newfoundland & Labrador.
Nova Scotia
Not a whole lot of changes in seats, but it appears the Tories made big gains in terms of votes. With the Atlantic results having large margins of error and no province by province breakdown being given, this made it tough to predict the results for each province. My guess is the Tories stronger than expected showing was mostly due to the unpopularity of the provincial NDP which is why the NDP surge was much weaker here than elsewhere in Canada. We have seen this before in other provinces where an unpopular provincial NDP government hurts them federally. We saw it in BC in 1993, 1997, and 2000, Ontario in 1993, and Saskatchewan in 2004 and 2006. As such no real surprise here. The Liberals tied the Tories in seats but actually came in third in votes. This was mainly due to the fact that three of their four ridings they won were by less than 5% and they failed to crack the 50% mark in any Nova Scotia riding whereas both the NDP and Conservatives got above 50% in two ridings in Nova Scotia. Essentially the Liberals got some lucky breaks here as had they fallen slightly further, they would have won only one seat.
Prince Edward Island
No changes in terms of seats here although ironically the Tories actually got more votes than the Liberals despite only winning one seat. This was because they won Egmont by a large margin whereas the other three ridings were much closer. The NDP won no seats but still 15% is pretty good in a province that they routinely get in the single digits. As such as PEI is the only province they have never won a seat in. When one considers the ridings have only 30,000 people, I expect local candidates have a much bigger impact here than other provinces as many people will actually meet their local candidates so those who are undecided will vote based on candidate as opposed to party. Another interesting fact is PEI had the highest voter turnout of any province being at 74% so I almost wonder if smaller constituencies help increase turnout. Off course we would have close to 1,000 MPs federally if every riding was as small as those in PEI making this unrealistic. Still it might be a point worth considering for those who argue against adding new seats to Ontario, BC, and Alberta and instead argue we should cut them elsewhere.
New Brunswick
While no surprise in terms of who won each seat, I must say I was surprised at how well the Tories did in terms of the popular vote and when I saw the numbers come in New Brunswick, that was the first sign to me they were on their way to winning a majority government. Last time around, they gained due to the carbon tax which was very unpopular in New Brunswick, but this time around there didn't seem to be any particular issue to help them other than it appears the Liberal vote imploded and so those who were Blue Liberals or former Red Tories who switched to the Liberals over the merger, probably swung in favour of the Tories. Likewise the NDP surge was greatest here of all Atlantic provinces as they came in first or second in 7 of the 10 ridings. The problem is asides from Acadie-Bathurst which they won, the Tories got over 48% in all the other six meaning all they did was swap second place with the Liberals, but no new seats. Also their 70% in Acadie-Bathurst probably helped inflate their provincial totals. For the Liberals, they only won one seat, but also fell to third place in terms of votes for the first time ever. In many ways their poor showing in New Brunswick reflected their poor showing nationally as in both cases they came in third for the first time in their political history.
Quebec
Of all provinces, this was probably the one that played the biggest role in reshaping the new parliament. In Quebec, 58 of 75 ridings or over 75% of seats voted differently than they did last time around, whereas in every other province, the majority of ridings went the same way they did in 2008. In fact in English Canada, the NDP got 44 seats and Liberals 27 seats thus their second place finish would be less significant and they only had a net gain of 8 seats in English Canada and only got 1 seat more than Ed Broadbent got in 1988. However, due to their massive gains in Quebec, that totally changed things. As for what happened here, one should recall in some early posts I mentioned the Bloc Quebecois' weakness, but that none of the federalist parties could break away from the pack. Well it appears the NDP would be the one who would. Many in Quebec may still support sovereignty but realize voting Bloc is useless as sovereignty will come through electing a PQ government provincially and a referendum. In 2003, it looked like the Bloc was in trouble, but then they were saved by the sponsorship scandal. The same thing appeared again in 2008, but the Tories comments on the arts cuts as well as the fact the Bloc was able to portray them as too right wing for Quebec worked to save the Bloc. This time around, the Bloc had nothing to attack the NDP with. Quebecers were still mad at the Liberals over the sponsorship scandal and some older ones over bringing in the constitution over its objections, while the Tories were perceived as too right wing for Quebec. By contrast the NDP was centre-left like most Quebecers, they had a likeable leader (and in Quebec personality matters more than it does in other provinces, as the Nanos poll showed Quebecers voted mainly based on leader while English Canada on policies), and they had abandoned their previous support for a strongly centralized government which was the main barrier to an NDP breakthrough in Quebec. While many commented on how they had no ground organization in many of the ridings they won, when a wave starts in Quebec, ground organization rarely matters. People said the same thing about the PCs in 1984 and ADQ in 2007 yet both outperformed what most pundits predicted. Off course they elected several students and candidates who never expected to be elected. The most controversial one was Ruth Ellen Broussea who won in Berthier-Maskinoge. She was vacationing in Las Vegas, couldn't speak French which is the language of most in the riding, and had never visited the riding (That means I would be just as qualified as I have spent all of one hour in the riding back in 2008 when driving from Toronto to Quebec City and I even stopped to get a coffee at some point in the riding). Off course the NDP did elect some strong candidates too in Quebec, but the party will definitely have to keep an eye on their Quebec caucus as they are the most likely to make stupid remarks that could hurt them. As for the Liberals, they came in fourth with only 14% however due to their concentration of support on the Island of Montreal, they still won 7 seats. It appears that a lot of their support also swung over to the NDP but not quite to the same extent as the Bloc Quebecois. The Tories won only 5 seats here meaning they were able to win a majority without Quebec. Certainly many separtists will play this up pointing out that while English Canada swung to the right, Quebec swung to the left meaning their values are different and therefore they need to separate. In the case of the Tories, they lost three cabinet ministers in Quebec and with their poor showing they will no doubt need to include some of those not in cabinet who managed to survive the orange tsunami. For one thing, I suspect Maxime Bernier will be back in cabinet. The Bloc Quebecois got reduced to only 4 seats losing their official party status and even their leader Gilles Duceppe lost his own riding and therefore resigned on election night. While a lot can happen between now and 2015, the loss of official party status and the Tories plans to cut off party subsidies whom the Bloc relies on more than anyone else means there is a good chance this will be the last election they are a serious competitor in. Although this is a non-partisan blog, I cannot say I will be the least bit sad to see the Bloc disappear. I would be sad to see any of the three federalist parties disappear since despite my disagreements with each, I believe each one serves a purpose whereas the Bloc does not.
Ontario
If it was Quebec who was mainly responsible for catapalting the NDP into opposition, it was Ontario that gave the Tories their majority. More specifically it was the GTA as 80% of Tory pickups were located in the GTA. In fact the Tories only picked up 3 seats outside the GTA (Sault Ste. Marie, London North Centre, and Nipissing-Timiskaming), while the NDP had zero gains and one loss outside the GTA. The Liberals only had six seats outside the GTA in Ontario and held four of them including Guelph and Kingston & Islands which I mistakenly predicted would go Tory despite under-predicting the number of Tory seats in Ontario. Much like in the US, university towns often tend to be much more liberal than surrounding areas so just as you see many blue spots in a sea of red in middle America, it appears you saw the same thing in Ontario although with colours reversed. The GTA long described as Fortress Toronto it terms of Grit strength is not anymore. Although the Liberals still got roughly the same number of votes as the NDP and Tories they won fewer seats as their votes were evenly spread out whereas the NDP was concentrated in the urban core and the Tories in the suburbs. In fact in the 416 area code, the results somewhat mirred last municipal election with the Tories winning in the same areas Rob Ford won in and the NDP in the areas George Smithermann won in. Despite the past Liberal strength in Toronto, as was seen last municipal election, the Liberals in the suburbs were different than the downtown types. The downtown types were more your progressive centre-left types thus why they swung over to the NDP while in the suburbs they were more your Blue Liberal centre-right types thus why they swung over to the Tories. Although I didn't post it on the blog, I did figure the Tories could get over 70 seats in Ontario if they got a slight bounce on E-day. Most polls had them at 38-41% in Ontario so due to their supporters being more motivated to show up, being stronger amongst those most likely to vote, and better ground organization, I predicted they would get 41% and had they gotten that, they probably would have won around 60 seats. It appears many Blue Liberals, particularly in the 905 belt and 416 suburbs bolted to the Tories at the last moment which the polls didn't pick up. I suspect the fear of an NDP led coalition and the fact the Liberals had no chance at winning played a big role in this. After all many of them still remembered the Bob Rae government in the early 90s and didn't want to see a repeat. After all McGuinty got only 42% and 72 seats, while Martin in 2004 got 44.7% vs. the Tories 44.4% in 2011 and got 75 seats in Ontario so if either party gets in the mid 40s, it will net them around 70 seats. Due to the distribution of votes in Ontario, a 4-5% jump in support can easily bring with it 20 more seats. The big reason though why I think the Tories did as well as they did in Ontario is the number one issue more many was the economy and since Canada came through the recession better than most, many wanted a stable government to lead them through these difficult times. This was the impression I got from talking to many who voted Tory including many traditional Liberal supporters. The NDP gains mainly came after the surge in Quebec pushed them ahead of the Liberals. Around 5-8% in Ontario are centre-left supporters who simply want to remove the Tories from office and will vote for whichever party is more likely to achieve this so once it looked like the NDP had a better chance at removing the Tories than Liberals they switched. Ironically this surge probably helped the Tories due to both vote splitting as well as pushing some Blue Liberals over to the Tories who would have not switched had the Liberals still been in second. For the Liberals going from 100 seats in 2000 to only 11 seats in 2011 and finishing in third in many ridings is an unmitigated disaster. Simply speaking, they are irrelevant in large parts of Ontario and even in their strongholds they are no longer the dominate party they once were. Not too long ago, the GTA was to the Liberals what Alberta was to the Tories. Not anymore as they only won 7 seats in the GTA and none were by more than 15% and in none did they got above 50%. Even their leader couldn't win his own seat, while other leadership contenders in 2006 such as Martha Hall Findlay, Ken Dryden, Joe Volpe, and Gerard Kennedy lost their own seat. In fact Bob Rae was the only leadership candidate from Ontario who managed to hold his own seat. I also think that being a party of the centre made them vulnerable. As a party of the centre you can appeal to more people than you can on the right or left, but also your support can be eaten away by the other side too as we saw happen.
Manitoba
A great night for the Tories winning 54% of the popular vote and 11 of 14 seats. In fact I don't think they have done this well since at least 1958 and maybe not even then. While I can see why Saskatchewan has swung heavily in their favour in recent years, I am a little more perplexed with Manitoba as they are still a have not province and the NDP government provincially is relatively popular. Not a good night for the NDP here as they lost one seat to the Tories and were unable to regain the seat they lost to the Liberals in a by-election last year. Likewise the Liberals came within 45 votes of being shut out of Manitoba which is not a good result for them. In fact their two Prairie seats were probably won more due to the popularity of their candidates, Kevin Lamoreux and Ralph Goodale and with a generic Liberal candidate probably would have been shut out of the Prairies.
Saskatchewan
The Tories got 56% and won 13 of the 14 seats. No real surprise here and ironically the Tories being at 56% and NDP at 32% is very similiar to provincial polls with the Saskatchewan Party around the same level of support as the Tories and the NDP also at similiar levels to their provincial counterparts. The fact Saskatchewan is now a have province as well as the fact they have many resources which could be taxed under an NDP government probably played a strong role in its swing to the right. After all, as Saskatchewan's economy has become more like Alberta's, their voting patterns have become more similiar. Also the Tories were helped by the gerrymandering as they dominate Rural Saskatchewan while things are more evenly split in Saskatoon and Regina but due to the fact all eight of those ridings extend into the countryside is a big reason why the NDP was shut out again. The NDP got 32% which is not a bad showing for them, but this did not translate into seats once again. Besides the distribution of the ridings, I think the NDP has also been hurt by the fact it is less like the original CCF which started in Saskatchewan. Originally it was a Prairie populist party whose leaders were usually very religious. In the early 60s, it made an alliance with the labour movement to help them gain in Ontario and British Columbia. This may have been an uneasy one but at least they had enough in common to stay as one party. As unionization rates began to fall, they focused more on your downtown socialists and the difference between them and the Prairie populists was too big. In this election they expanded their support to the left wing nationalists in Quebec. While appealing to those groups helped them gain more seats nationally, it probably hurt them in the Prairies. The Liberals only got a dismal 9% yet Ralph Goodale still held his seat suggesting he could probably win as an independent in his riding due to his own popularity. In fact almost half of all Liberal votes cast in Saskatchewan were in Goodale's riding.
Alberta
The Tories weren't able to sweep the province, but got 67% which is their best showing since 1984 and won most ridings by obscene margins. For all the accusations that they have taken Alberta for granted, I suspect the threat of an NDP led coalition and their cap and trade plans being likely to hurt Alberta economically, probably helped boost the Tories. The NDP won Edmonton-Strathcona, but finished well back elsewhere. It looks like they did well amongst younger voters who tend to be more progressive than their older counterparts. After all many weren't born when the National Energy Program was implemented in the early 80s and also when you are a student you are probably concerned about the environment and Alberta's bad international rap. By contrast when you have a job, you may not like the negative views of the oilsands, but you probably hate the thought of being unemployed even more. The Liberals were off course irrelevant as most suspected.
British Columbia
British Columbia was the only province in English Canada where the Tories lost seats, however like the rest of English Canada, but unlike Quebec, their share of the popular vote increased. The main reason they didn't have gains in BC unlike Ontario was due to whom their main opponent was from the outset. In Ontario, it was the Liberals while BC it was the NDP, thus the drop of the Liberals and rise of the NDP is why the Tories gained in Ontario but not British Columbia. They did however pick up Vancouver South so for the first time in over 20 years, the Tories have representation in both Toronto and Vancouver proper, not just the suburbs. I also think their strategy to win amongst ethnic voters worked well although it also appears the NDP gained amongst them too, after all they won Scarborough-Rouge River which is 89% visible minority, the highest in all of Canada. If anything, immigrants are no longer voting massively Liberal like they use to and are instead voting based on their values as immigrants are quite diverse in their views just like native born Canadians are. The NDP did gain BC, getting 12 seats, with two coming from the Liberals and only one from the Tories. I figured they were more likely to pick up Liberal ridings since the Liberals won by smaller margins and their support was less firm than the Tory support. I was not surprised to see Surrey North go NDP which always struck me as the most vulnerable of the Tory seats in BC. The Liberals got reduced to 2 seats and only 13%. In many ways, the federal results are starting to mirror provincial ones with those who support the pro-free enterprise coalition (Social Credit from the 50s to 80s, BC Liberals today) voting Conservative while those who NDP provincially are now also voting for them federally. Essentially most federal Liberals who voted BC Liberal provincially probably swung over to the Tories and those who voted NDP provincially probably swung over to the NDP federally. Since the pro-free enterprise coalition has always won in BC provincially whenever they are united, it is no surprise the Tories federally would also come out on top. In terms of the two ridings the Liberals held, I think they held those ones due to unique demographics. Vancouver-Quadra and Vancouver Centre are fairly affluent ridings thus they wouldn't go NDP, but at the same time they are quite progressive thus why they won't go Tory. In many ways they are similiar to Toronto Centre and St. Paul's which the Liberals were able to hold and also like Manhattan and San Francisco in the US which are wealthy and progressive and go massively Democrat. The Green Party also won their first seat ever despite doing much worse nationally. This can easily be explained that the Green party didn't run a national campaign, but instead focused on winning a seat in the House of Commons. This is not unlike the last British election where the Green Party lost votes over the previous election, yet their leader won her seat. I suspect after seeing this, Elizabeth May realized she needed to win a seat to become credible and thus the reason she ran a local rather than national. It also appears much of the Green Party support elsewhere swung over to the NDP thus their rise and not so much to the Liberals. Probably not a lot to the Tories either although in Central Nova, I suspect a good chunk of the 10% who went Tory this time around but didn't last time around were Green voters.
North
The NDP held Western Arctic despite being targeted by both the Liberals and Tories. It appears Denis Bevington's personal popularity was enough to hold off the other two. In Nunavut, the Tories easily held this one which is no surprise considering their strong support of Arctic sovereignty as well as the popularity of their MP. Yukon was a bit of a surprise that the Tories picked this up as Larry Bagnell is a popular MP, although I suspect his support of the gun registry probably cost him votes considering how unpopular this in his riding. This also probably cost the NDP Sault Ste. Marie and may explain the strong increase in Tory support in Northern Ontario although not enough to take down many MPs. Either way this will be scrapped by the next election thus a non-issue although with the Tories now holding the incumbent advantage it will be a lot tougher to retake as incumbents rarely lose here.
Newfoundland & Labrador
Danny Williams is gone as premier and the new premier Kathy Dunderdale endorsed the Tories, however from reading many comments in the media, I still figured there was a lot of anger at the Tories over their broken promise on equalization. They did recover somewhat since they got 28% vs. 17%, which appears to me that all of those who always voted Tory in every election save 2008 returned to them, but those who voted for them most of the time, but occassionally for other parties stayed with the other parties. The Liberals held their ground for the most part as this was the only province they came in first and one of two where they won the majority of seats. The NDP picked up the other St. John's seats, but with no ground organization outside St. John's, they weren't able to gain elsewhere. Although I got the seat count right here, I was totally surprised like many that the Tories were able to pick up Labrador. Of all the seat changes in Atlantic Canada, that was probably the biggest shocker. I figured Avalon was their best shot if the Tories were to regain seats in Newfoundland & Labrador.
Nova Scotia
Not a whole lot of changes in seats, but it appears the Tories made big gains in terms of votes. With the Atlantic results having large margins of error and no province by province breakdown being given, this made it tough to predict the results for each province. My guess is the Tories stronger than expected showing was mostly due to the unpopularity of the provincial NDP which is why the NDP surge was much weaker here than elsewhere in Canada. We have seen this before in other provinces where an unpopular provincial NDP government hurts them federally. We saw it in BC in 1993, 1997, and 2000, Ontario in 1993, and Saskatchewan in 2004 and 2006. As such no real surprise here. The Liberals tied the Tories in seats but actually came in third in votes. This was mainly due to the fact that three of their four ridings they won were by less than 5% and they failed to crack the 50% mark in any Nova Scotia riding whereas both the NDP and Conservatives got above 50% in two ridings in Nova Scotia. Essentially the Liberals got some lucky breaks here as had they fallen slightly further, they would have won only one seat.
Prince Edward Island
No changes in terms of seats here although ironically the Tories actually got more votes than the Liberals despite only winning one seat. This was because they won Egmont by a large margin whereas the other three ridings were much closer. The NDP won no seats but still 15% is pretty good in a province that they routinely get in the single digits. As such as PEI is the only province they have never won a seat in. When one considers the ridings have only 30,000 people, I expect local candidates have a much bigger impact here than other provinces as many people will actually meet their local candidates so those who are undecided will vote based on candidate as opposed to party. Another interesting fact is PEI had the highest voter turnout of any province being at 74% so I almost wonder if smaller constituencies help increase turnout. Off course we would have close to 1,000 MPs federally if every riding was as small as those in PEI making this unrealistic. Still it might be a point worth considering for those who argue against adding new seats to Ontario, BC, and Alberta and instead argue we should cut them elsewhere.
New Brunswick
While no surprise in terms of who won each seat, I must say I was surprised at how well the Tories did in terms of the popular vote and when I saw the numbers come in New Brunswick, that was the first sign to me they were on their way to winning a majority government. Last time around, they gained due to the carbon tax which was very unpopular in New Brunswick, but this time around there didn't seem to be any particular issue to help them other than it appears the Liberal vote imploded and so those who were Blue Liberals or former Red Tories who switched to the Liberals over the merger, probably swung in favour of the Tories. Likewise the NDP surge was greatest here of all Atlantic provinces as they came in first or second in 7 of the 10 ridings. The problem is asides from Acadie-Bathurst which they won, the Tories got over 48% in all the other six meaning all they did was swap second place with the Liberals, but no new seats. Also their 70% in Acadie-Bathurst probably helped inflate their provincial totals. For the Liberals, they only won one seat, but also fell to third place in terms of votes for the first time ever. In many ways their poor showing in New Brunswick reflected their poor showing nationally as in both cases they came in third for the first time in their political history.
Quebec
Of all provinces, this was probably the one that played the biggest role in reshaping the new parliament. In Quebec, 58 of 75 ridings or over 75% of seats voted differently than they did last time around, whereas in every other province, the majority of ridings went the same way they did in 2008. In fact in English Canada, the NDP got 44 seats and Liberals 27 seats thus their second place finish would be less significant and they only had a net gain of 8 seats in English Canada and only got 1 seat more than Ed Broadbent got in 1988. However, due to their massive gains in Quebec, that totally changed things. As for what happened here, one should recall in some early posts I mentioned the Bloc Quebecois' weakness, but that none of the federalist parties could break away from the pack. Well it appears the NDP would be the one who would. Many in Quebec may still support sovereignty but realize voting Bloc is useless as sovereignty will come through electing a PQ government provincially and a referendum. In 2003, it looked like the Bloc was in trouble, but then they were saved by the sponsorship scandal. The same thing appeared again in 2008, but the Tories comments on the arts cuts as well as the fact the Bloc was able to portray them as too right wing for Quebec worked to save the Bloc. This time around, the Bloc had nothing to attack the NDP with. Quebecers were still mad at the Liberals over the sponsorship scandal and some older ones over bringing in the constitution over its objections, while the Tories were perceived as too right wing for Quebec. By contrast the NDP was centre-left like most Quebecers, they had a likeable leader (and in Quebec personality matters more than it does in other provinces, as the Nanos poll showed Quebecers voted mainly based on leader while English Canada on policies), and they had abandoned their previous support for a strongly centralized government which was the main barrier to an NDP breakthrough in Quebec. While many commented on how they had no ground organization in many of the ridings they won, when a wave starts in Quebec, ground organization rarely matters. People said the same thing about the PCs in 1984 and ADQ in 2007 yet both outperformed what most pundits predicted. Off course they elected several students and candidates who never expected to be elected. The most controversial one was Ruth Ellen Broussea who won in Berthier-Maskinoge. She was vacationing in Las Vegas, couldn't speak French which is the language of most in the riding, and had never visited the riding (That means I would be just as qualified as I have spent all of one hour in the riding back in 2008 when driving from Toronto to Quebec City and I even stopped to get a coffee at some point in the riding). Off course the NDP did elect some strong candidates too in Quebec, but the party will definitely have to keep an eye on their Quebec caucus as they are the most likely to make stupid remarks that could hurt them. As for the Liberals, they came in fourth with only 14% however due to their concentration of support on the Island of Montreal, they still won 7 seats. It appears that a lot of their support also swung over to the NDP but not quite to the same extent as the Bloc Quebecois. The Tories won only 5 seats here meaning they were able to win a majority without Quebec. Certainly many separtists will play this up pointing out that while English Canada swung to the right, Quebec swung to the left meaning their values are different and therefore they need to separate. In the case of the Tories, they lost three cabinet ministers in Quebec and with their poor showing they will no doubt need to include some of those not in cabinet who managed to survive the orange tsunami. For one thing, I suspect Maxime Bernier will be back in cabinet. The Bloc Quebecois got reduced to only 4 seats losing their official party status and even their leader Gilles Duceppe lost his own riding and therefore resigned on election night. While a lot can happen between now and 2015, the loss of official party status and the Tories plans to cut off party subsidies whom the Bloc relies on more than anyone else means there is a good chance this will be the last election they are a serious competitor in. Although this is a non-partisan blog, I cannot say I will be the least bit sad to see the Bloc disappear. I would be sad to see any of the three federalist parties disappear since despite my disagreements with each, I believe each one serves a purpose whereas the Bloc does not.
Ontario
If it was Quebec who was mainly responsible for catapalting the NDP into opposition, it was Ontario that gave the Tories their majority. More specifically it was the GTA as 80% of Tory pickups were located in the GTA. In fact the Tories only picked up 3 seats outside the GTA (Sault Ste. Marie, London North Centre, and Nipissing-Timiskaming), while the NDP had zero gains and one loss outside the GTA. The Liberals only had six seats outside the GTA in Ontario and held four of them including Guelph and Kingston & Islands which I mistakenly predicted would go Tory despite under-predicting the number of Tory seats in Ontario. Much like in the US, university towns often tend to be much more liberal than surrounding areas so just as you see many blue spots in a sea of red in middle America, it appears you saw the same thing in Ontario although with colours reversed. The GTA long described as Fortress Toronto it terms of Grit strength is not anymore. Although the Liberals still got roughly the same number of votes as the NDP and Tories they won fewer seats as their votes were evenly spread out whereas the NDP was concentrated in the urban core and the Tories in the suburbs. In fact in the 416 area code, the results somewhat mirred last municipal election with the Tories winning in the same areas Rob Ford won in and the NDP in the areas George Smithermann won in. Despite the past Liberal strength in Toronto, as was seen last municipal election, the Liberals in the suburbs were different than the downtown types. The downtown types were more your progressive centre-left types thus why they swung over to the NDP while in the suburbs they were more your Blue Liberal centre-right types thus why they swung over to the Tories. Although I didn't post it on the blog, I did figure the Tories could get over 70 seats in Ontario if they got a slight bounce on E-day. Most polls had them at 38-41% in Ontario so due to their supporters being more motivated to show up, being stronger amongst those most likely to vote, and better ground organization, I predicted they would get 41% and had they gotten that, they probably would have won around 60 seats. It appears many Blue Liberals, particularly in the 905 belt and 416 suburbs bolted to the Tories at the last moment which the polls didn't pick up. I suspect the fear of an NDP led coalition and the fact the Liberals had no chance at winning played a big role in this. After all many of them still remembered the Bob Rae government in the early 90s and didn't want to see a repeat. After all McGuinty got only 42% and 72 seats, while Martin in 2004 got 44.7% vs. the Tories 44.4% in 2011 and got 75 seats in Ontario so if either party gets in the mid 40s, it will net them around 70 seats. Due to the distribution of votes in Ontario, a 4-5% jump in support can easily bring with it 20 more seats. The big reason though why I think the Tories did as well as they did in Ontario is the number one issue more many was the economy and since Canada came through the recession better than most, many wanted a stable government to lead them through these difficult times. This was the impression I got from talking to many who voted Tory including many traditional Liberal supporters. The NDP gains mainly came after the surge in Quebec pushed them ahead of the Liberals. Around 5-8% in Ontario are centre-left supporters who simply want to remove the Tories from office and will vote for whichever party is more likely to achieve this so once it looked like the NDP had a better chance at removing the Tories than Liberals they switched. Ironically this surge probably helped the Tories due to both vote splitting as well as pushing some Blue Liberals over to the Tories who would have not switched had the Liberals still been in second. For the Liberals going from 100 seats in 2000 to only 11 seats in 2011 and finishing in third in many ridings is an unmitigated disaster. Simply speaking, they are irrelevant in large parts of Ontario and even in their strongholds they are no longer the dominate party they once were. Not too long ago, the GTA was to the Liberals what Alberta was to the Tories. Not anymore as they only won 7 seats in the GTA and none were by more than 15% and in none did they got above 50%. Even their leader couldn't win his own seat, while other leadership contenders in 2006 such as Martha Hall Findlay, Ken Dryden, Joe Volpe, and Gerard Kennedy lost their own seat. In fact Bob Rae was the only leadership candidate from Ontario who managed to hold his own seat. I also think that being a party of the centre made them vulnerable. As a party of the centre you can appeal to more people than you can on the right or left, but also your support can be eaten away by the other side too as we saw happen.
Manitoba
A great night for the Tories winning 54% of the popular vote and 11 of 14 seats. In fact I don't think they have done this well since at least 1958 and maybe not even then. While I can see why Saskatchewan has swung heavily in their favour in recent years, I am a little more perplexed with Manitoba as they are still a have not province and the NDP government provincially is relatively popular. Not a good night for the NDP here as they lost one seat to the Tories and were unable to regain the seat they lost to the Liberals in a by-election last year. Likewise the Liberals came within 45 votes of being shut out of Manitoba which is not a good result for them. In fact their two Prairie seats were probably won more due to the popularity of their candidates, Kevin Lamoreux and Ralph Goodale and with a generic Liberal candidate probably would have been shut out of the Prairies.
Saskatchewan
The Tories got 56% and won 13 of the 14 seats. No real surprise here and ironically the Tories being at 56% and NDP at 32% is very similiar to provincial polls with the Saskatchewan Party around the same level of support as the Tories and the NDP also at similiar levels to their provincial counterparts. The fact Saskatchewan is now a have province as well as the fact they have many resources which could be taxed under an NDP government probably played a strong role in its swing to the right. After all, as Saskatchewan's economy has become more like Alberta's, their voting patterns have become more similiar. Also the Tories were helped by the gerrymandering as they dominate Rural Saskatchewan while things are more evenly split in Saskatoon and Regina but due to the fact all eight of those ridings extend into the countryside is a big reason why the NDP was shut out again. The NDP got 32% which is not a bad showing for them, but this did not translate into seats once again. Besides the distribution of the ridings, I think the NDP has also been hurt by the fact it is less like the original CCF which started in Saskatchewan. Originally it was a Prairie populist party whose leaders were usually very religious. In the early 60s, it made an alliance with the labour movement to help them gain in Ontario and British Columbia. This may have been an uneasy one but at least they had enough in common to stay as one party. As unionization rates began to fall, they focused more on your downtown socialists and the difference between them and the Prairie populists was too big. In this election they expanded their support to the left wing nationalists in Quebec. While appealing to those groups helped them gain more seats nationally, it probably hurt them in the Prairies. The Liberals only got a dismal 9% yet Ralph Goodale still held his seat suggesting he could probably win as an independent in his riding due to his own popularity. In fact almost half of all Liberal votes cast in Saskatchewan were in Goodale's riding.
Alberta
The Tories weren't able to sweep the province, but got 67% which is their best showing since 1984 and won most ridings by obscene margins. For all the accusations that they have taken Alberta for granted, I suspect the threat of an NDP led coalition and their cap and trade plans being likely to hurt Alberta economically, probably helped boost the Tories. The NDP won Edmonton-Strathcona, but finished well back elsewhere. It looks like they did well amongst younger voters who tend to be more progressive than their older counterparts. After all many weren't born when the National Energy Program was implemented in the early 80s and also when you are a student you are probably concerned about the environment and Alberta's bad international rap. By contrast when you have a job, you may not like the negative views of the oilsands, but you probably hate the thought of being unemployed even more. The Liberals were off course irrelevant as most suspected.
British Columbia
British Columbia was the only province in English Canada where the Tories lost seats, however like the rest of English Canada, but unlike Quebec, their share of the popular vote increased. The main reason they didn't have gains in BC unlike Ontario was due to whom their main opponent was from the outset. In Ontario, it was the Liberals while BC it was the NDP, thus the drop of the Liberals and rise of the NDP is why the Tories gained in Ontario but not British Columbia. They did however pick up Vancouver South so for the first time in over 20 years, the Tories have representation in both Toronto and Vancouver proper, not just the suburbs. I also think their strategy to win amongst ethnic voters worked well although it also appears the NDP gained amongst them too, after all they won Scarborough-Rouge River which is 89% visible minority, the highest in all of Canada. If anything, immigrants are no longer voting massively Liberal like they use to and are instead voting based on their values as immigrants are quite diverse in their views just like native born Canadians are. The NDP did gain BC, getting 12 seats, with two coming from the Liberals and only one from the Tories. I figured they were more likely to pick up Liberal ridings since the Liberals won by smaller margins and their support was less firm than the Tory support. I was not surprised to see Surrey North go NDP which always struck me as the most vulnerable of the Tory seats in BC. The Liberals got reduced to 2 seats and only 13%. In many ways, the federal results are starting to mirror provincial ones with those who support the pro-free enterprise coalition (Social Credit from the 50s to 80s, BC Liberals today) voting Conservative while those who NDP provincially are now also voting for them federally. Essentially most federal Liberals who voted BC Liberal provincially probably swung over to the Tories and those who voted NDP provincially probably swung over to the NDP federally. Since the pro-free enterprise coalition has always won in BC provincially whenever they are united, it is no surprise the Tories federally would also come out on top. In terms of the two ridings the Liberals held, I think they held those ones due to unique demographics. Vancouver-Quadra and Vancouver Centre are fairly affluent ridings thus they wouldn't go NDP, but at the same time they are quite progressive thus why they won't go Tory. In many ways they are similiar to Toronto Centre and St. Paul's which the Liberals were able to hold and also like Manhattan and San Francisco in the US which are wealthy and progressive and go massively Democrat. The Green Party also won their first seat ever despite doing much worse nationally. This can easily be explained that the Green party didn't run a national campaign, but instead focused on winning a seat in the House of Commons. This is not unlike the last British election where the Green Party lost votes over the previous election, yet their leader won her seat. I suspect after seeing this, Elizabeth May realized she needed to win a seat to become credible and thus the reason she ran a local rather than national. It also appears much of the Green Party support elsewhere swung over to the NDP thus their rise and not so much to the Liberals. Probably not a lot to the Tories either although in Central Nova, I suspect a good chunk of the 10% who went Tory this time around but didn't last time around were Green voters.
North
The NDP held Western Arctic despite being targeted by both the Liberals and Tories. It appears Denis Bevington's personal popularity was enough to hold off the other two. In Nunavut, the Tories easily held this one which is no surprise considering their strong support of Arctic sovereignty as well as the popularity of their MP. Yukon was a bit of a surprise that the Tories picked this up as Larry Bagnell is a popular MP, although I suspect his support of the gun registry probably cost him votes considering how unpopular this in his riding. This also probably cost the NDP Sault Ste. Marie and may explain the strong increase in Tory support in Northern Ontario although not enough to take down many MPs. Either way this will be scrapped by the next election thus a non-issue although with the Tories now holding the incumbent advantage it will be a lot tougher to retake as incumbents rarely lose here.
Sunday 8 May 2011
First Post-Mortem
I will have more details over the next week or two, anyways here is my first post-mortem. This was called a Seinfield election and everybody said no much would change. They were wrong and it does show that elections do matter. This election may very well result in a political realignment with the Tories finally achieving their goal of being the natural governing party, the NDP as the main alternative and the Liberals and BQ fading into oblivion. Off course it is too early to say what will or won't but at least this looks far more plausible than it did 6 weeks ago.
Conservatives
The Conservatives wanted a majority government and they got it, so on the whole I would say this election was a success for them. I also think most thought it would be a bare majority, not the 166 seats they got and I doubt many actually thought they would win 70+ seats in Ontario and 2/3 of the seats in the GTA including 8.5 seats (Pickering-Scarborough East straddles the 905/416) in the 416 area code. That being said I think had the NDP surge not occurred, I don't think they would have made the gains they did in the GTA (which is where 80% of their pickups occurred). First this split the vote on the left allowing them to come up the middle in ridings like Don Valley East, Scarborough Centre, and Bramalea-Gore-Malton. Secondly many Blue Liberals probably bolted for the Tories at the last minute thus why they got 44% in Ontario, not the 38-41% most polls said and in terms of seats this makes a big difference. Although only predicted they would win 60 seats in Ontario, I will admit I thought that 70 seats was not as far fetched as some thought since I figured if they went up a few percentage points that would happen. After all, they got a greater share of the popular vote in Ontario than McGuinty got lost provincial election when he won 72 seats and roughly the same as Paul Martin did in 2004 when he won 75 seats in Ontario. Also another thing they did was they won a majority without Quebec which no Conservative government has done since 1917 when they had the conscription crisis. The fact they were able to win without Quebec could have some interesting ramfications which I will discuss in later posts.
NDP
Almost tripled their seat count, formed the official opposition, and made a huge breakthrough in Quebec. I think if you are dipper, you would have to be pretty happy with how well your party did. The only disappointment some might have as despite their gains, Canada will likely move to the right, not left, and they will have less clout in the upcoming parliament, but this all has to do with the fact the Tories won a majority which there is not much they can do about. They made gains in English Canada, although their gains in English Canada were far less impressive than Quebec. In fact they only had a net gain of 8 seats in English Canada and won one more than Ed Broadbent did in 1988, so it was really in Quebec where they surged ahead. In fact one could argue Canada broke along linguistic lines with English Canada swinging to the right by electing more Tories and Quebec swinging to the left by electing a lot more NDPs. Just as Quebec swung massively towards the NDP, they can easily take it away on its moments notice much as we saw with the provincial ADQ who nearly won in 2007 only to get wiped out a year and half later. The NDP has an opportunity to eventually form government, but there is no guarantee they will be the party that will replace the Tories. Now that they are the official opposition, they will come under much greater scrutiny than before and how they handle this will determine whether they supplant the Liberals as the main alternative to the Tories or was this just a one time event.
Liberals
Obviously on many fronts, this was an unmitigated disaster. They had their worst showing ever, their leader lost his own seat, they couldn't even stay in front in their stronghold of the GTA. Even in Atlantic Canada which is now called their new stronghold, they won fewer votes and seats than the Tories. Obviously they have a lot of rebuilding to do. I don't think they ran a horrible campaign and I think their loss was not just do to Michael Ignatieff being unpopular, but also other issues too. He maybe didn't help, but I think the party would have done poorly no matter who their leader was. The problem is there is still a strong sense of arrogance in the party that believes it is their God given right to govern. Many still harken back to past glories and still try to think of excuses for their poorer than expected showings in the past three elections. Had they taken their losses serious and realized they weren't accidents, I believe the party would be in much better shape than it was. Still the party is not dead and can someday form government again, but it will take a lot of rebuilding. I will have more on this in later posts as well as any possible unite the left merger.
Bloc Quebecois
The Liberals and Tories have both tried to wipe out the Bloc Quebecois, but both failed. Finally under the NDP, they succeeded. Although this is a non-partisan blog, I am a federalist and I am not the least bit sad to see them do as poorly as they did and nor will I be sad if the party goes under completely. Despite the fact the results surprised many, we could see the unravelling beginning as far back as 2003. In 2003, the Liberals had a huge lead in the polls in Quebec and looked like they would finish off the Bloc Quebecois. It was adscam that prevented this from happening. In 2008, it looked like the Tories might do the same, however Harper's stupid comments about cuts to the arts as well as the fact the Bloc was able to portray the Tories as too right wing for Quebec helped save them. In many ways the Bloc Quebecois had outlived its usefulness as separation will come through electing a PQ government provincially and having a referendum; electing BQ members will do nothing to advance the cause of separtism. Many in Quebec realized this and only voted Bloc due to disatsification with the alternatives. Quebecers are still angry at the Liberals over adscam, thus why they weren't an acceptable alternative, and the Tories are too right wing for Quebec as Quebec is without question the most left wing province in Canada, thus making them not an acceptable alternative. The NDP seemed like a possible alternative, but in the past they often advocated a strongly centralized government which is not popular in Quebec. This election, they promised to respect Quebec's provincial jurisdiction and being in sync with Quebec on the values question and not having been in government before, thus not doing anything to anger Quebecers, they seemed like a viable alternative to the Bloc Quebecois. The loss of the BQ does not however mean separtism is dead. Close to 40% of Quebecers are still separtist, they just realize that it will be achieved at the provincial, not federal level.
Green Party
Despite losing several votes largely due to less media attention, Elizabeth May won her own seat being the first Green MP elected in Canada. The same thing happened in Britain last election where the Greens lost votes but the leader won her seat, so seemed like a wise strategy. I argued that she should have been excluded from the debates and I stand by that argument, but now that she has won a seat, I believe the Greens have earned the right to be in the next debate in 2015. I still think though we should establish clear rules for who is in and who is not. My view is any party that gets a seat or over 10% of the popular vote is included.
Conservatives
The Conservatives wanted a majority government and they got it, so on the whole I would say this election was a success for them. I also think most thought it would be a bare majority, not the 166 seats they got and I doubt many actually thought they would win 70+ seats in Ontario and 2/3 of the seats in the GTA including 8.5 seats (Pickering-Scarborough East straddles the 905/416) in the 416 area code. That being said I think had the NDP surge not occurred, I don't think they would have made the gains they did in the GTA (which is where 80% of their pickups occurred). First this split the vote on the left allowing them to come up the middle in ridings like Don Valley East, Scarborough Centre, and Bramalea-Gore-Malton. Secondly many Blue Liberals probably bolted for the Tories at the last minute thus why they got 44% in Ontario, not the 38-41% most polls said and in terms of seats this makes a big difference. Although only predicted they would win 60 seats in Ontario, I will admit I thought that 70 seats was not as far fetched as some thought since I figured if they went up a few percentage points that would happen. After all, they got a greater share of the popular vote in Ontario than McGuinty got lost provincial election when he won 72 seats and roughly the same as Paul Martin did in 2004 when he won 75 seats in Ontario. Also another thing they did was they won a majority without Quebec which no Conservative government has done since 1917 when they had the conscription crisis. The fact they were able to win without Quebec could have some interesting ramfications which I will discuss in later posts.
NDP
Almost tripled their seat count, formed the official opposition, and made a huge breakthrough in Quebec. I think if you are dipper, you would have to be pretty happy with how well your party did. The only disappointment some might have as despite their gains, Canada will likely move to the right, not left, and they will have less clout in the upcoming parliament, but this all has to do with the fact the Tories won a majority which there is not much they can do about. They made gains in English Canada, although their gains in English Canada were far less impressive than Quebec. In fact they only had a net gain of 8 seats in English Canada and won one more than Ed Broadbent did in 1988, so it was really in Quebec where they surged ahead. In fact one could argue Canada broke along linguistic lines with English Canada swinging to the right by electing more Tories and Quebec swinging to the left by electing a lot more NDPs. Just as Quebec swung massively towards the NDP, they can easily take it away on its moments notice much as we saw with the provincial ADQ who nearly won in 2007 only to get wiped out a year and half later. The NDP has an opportunity to eventually form government, but there is no guarantee they will be the party that will replace the Tories. Now that they are the official opposition, they will come under much greater scrutiny than before and how they handle this will determine whether they supplant the Liberals as the main alternative to the Tories or was this just a one time event.
Liberals
Obviously on many fronts, this was an unmitigated disaster. They had their worst showing ever, their leader lost his own seat, they couldn't even stay in front in their stronghold of the GTA. Even in Atlantic Canada which is now called their new stronghold, they won fewer votes and seats than the Tories. Obviously they have a lot of rebuilding to do. I don't think they ran a horrible campaign and I think their loss was not just do to Michael Ignatieff being unpopular, but also other issues too. He maybe didn't help, but I think the party would have done poorly no matter who their leader was. The problem is there is still a strong sense of arrogance in the party that believes it is their God given right to govern. Many still harken back to past glories and still try to think of excuses for their poorer than expected showings in the past three elections. Had they taken their losses serious and realized they weren't accidents, I believe the party would be in much better shape than it was. Still the party is not dead and can someday form government again, but it will take a lot of rebuilding. I will have more on this in later posts as well as any possible unite the left merger.
Bloc Quebecois
The Liberals and Tories have both tried to wipe out the Bloc Quebecois, but both failed. Finally under the NDP, they succeeded. Although this is a non-partisan blog, I am a federalist and I am not the least bit sad to see them do as poorly as they did and nor will I be sad if the party goes under completely. Despite the fact the results surprised many, we could see the unravelling beginning as far back as 2003. In 2003, the Liberals had a huge lead in the polls in Quebec and looked like they would finish off the Bloc Quebecois. It was adscam that prevented this from happening. In 2008, it looked like the Tories might do the same, however Harper's stupid comments about cuts to the arts as well as the fact the Bloc was able to portray the Tories as too right wing for Quebec helped save them. In many ways the Bloc Quebecois had outlived its usefulness as separation will come through electing a PQ government provincially and having a referendum; electing BQ members will do nothing to advance the cause of separtism. Many in Quebec realized this and only voted Bloc due to disatsification with the alternatives. Quebecers are still angry at the Liberals over adscam, thus why they weren't an acceptable alternative, and the Tories are too right wing for Quebec as Quebec is without question the most left wing province in Canada, thus making them not an acceptable alternative. The NDP seemed like a possible alternative, but in the past they often advocated a strongly centralized government which is not popular in Quebec. This election, they promised to respect Quebec's provincial jurisdiction and being in sync with Quebec on the values question and not having been in government before, thus not doing anything to anger Quebecers, they seemed like a viable alternative to the Bloc Quebecois. The loss of the BQ does not however mean separtism is dead. Close to 40% of Quebecers are still separtist, they just realize that it will be achieved at the provincial, not federal level.
Green Party
Despite losing several votes largely due to less media attention, Elizabeth May won her own seat being the first Green MP elected in Canada. The same thing happened in Britain last election where the Greens lost votes but the leader won her seat, so seemed like a wise strategy. I argued that she should have been excluded from the debates and I stand by that argument, but now that she has won a seat, I believe the Greens have earned the right to be in the next debate in 2015. I still think though we should establish clear rules for who is in and who is not. My view is any party that gets a seat or over 10% of the popular vote is included.
Monday 2 May 2011
Election Results
I will give a first post-mortem tomorrow, but for those who said this would be a Seinfeild election, I guess it was anything but. The Conservatives not only win a majority, but a fairly solid one and they got close to if not over 40% of the popular vote and won at least one seat in every province. The NDP forms the official opposition with over 100 seats and the Liberals fall to below to 40 seats and the Bloc Quebecois loses its official party status. It also looks like both Ignatieff and Duceppe have lost their own seats. I will have more on this tomorrow or Wednesday.
Last post before the polls close
In just over an hour, the first polls will close in Newfoundland & Labrador and we will see the first results. In the case of Newfoundland & Labrador, I don't think it will be very indicative of how things will go, but it will be interesting to see if the Tories regain a seat after Williams' ABC campaign. Avalon seems like their best bet, but Random-Burin-St. George's is a possibility. The NDP look set to gain St. John's South-Mount Pearl so this might be the first indication of whether the orange surge has truly materialized or not. At 8:00, the polls in the rest of Atlantic Canada close. In terms of vote splitting or Conservative gains I will be watching to see if the Tories pick up Malpeque, Madawaska-Restigouche, and Moncton-Riverview-Dieppe since if they pick up these, that could be a sign of big gains in Ontario, but if not it may say the Liberal vote is holding better than expected. Dartmouth-Cole Harbour and South Shore-St. Margaret's are the most likely NDP pick ups in Nova Scotia so if they cannot pick those up, the surge may be weaker than expected while if they pick up Central Nova and Halifax West that probably means it is stronger than expected.
Quebec, Ontario, and BC are the provinces to watch later as the Prairies should largely stay Tory with only a few seats possibly changing hands. In the case of Quebec, a lot will be whether the NDP surge materializes or not. They should win at least 30 seats there, but if they get over 50 seats they may have a chance at getting over 100 seats nationally. Likewise this will be the first sign as to whether the Bloc Quebecois will play a role in the next parliament or not. The Liberals and Conservatives should lose seats, but not all. In Ontario, there are a couple of possible scenarios. If the Conservative vote rises to 42-43%, they could have a really good night and will probably pull off a majority. If it stays in the 38-40% range but you have strong vote splits, this should be enough to counter losses elsewhere but probably not quite enough to get a majority. If the Liberals rebound somewhat, then expect them to have a better night than expected and the Tories to hold their seats but not get a majority. If the NDP surges past 30% in Ontario, expect them to start picking up seats we never expected, but also we should see a lot of Tory pickups from supposed safe Liberal seats in suburban 416 and the 905 belt. In British Columbia, it will determine whether the Conservatives get a majority or not and likewise if an NDP-Liberal coalition is viable or not. The Conservatives should win the majority of seats in BC, but whether they hold their ground or lose to the NDP still remains to be seen.
I will give my initial reaction later tonight, but do an indepth analysis tomorrow or Wednesday on the regional breakdowns, why the parties fared the way they did, where they need to go going forward, and also whether a coalition is viable or not in the case of another Conservative minority.
Quebec, Ontario, and BC are the provinces to watch later as the Prairies should largely stay Tory with only a few seats possibly changing hands. In the case of Quebec, a lot will be whether the NDP surge materializes or not. They should win at least 30 seats there, but if they get over 50 seats they may have a chance at getting over 100 seats nationally. Likewise this will be the first sign as to whether the Bloc Quebecois will play a role in the next parliament or not. The Liberals and Conservatives should lose seats, but not all. In Ontario, there are a couple of possible scenarios. If the Conservative vote rises to 42-43%, they could have a really good night and will probably pull off a majority. If it stays in the 38-40% range but you have strong vote splits, this should be enough to counter losses elsewhere but probably not quite enough to get a majority. If the Liberals rebound somewhat, then expect them to have a better night than expected and the Tories to hold their seats but not get a majority. If the NDP surges past 30% in Ontario, expect them to start picking up seats we never expected, but also we should see a lot of Tory pickups from supposed safe Liberal seats in suburban 416 and the 905 belt. In British Columbia, it will determine whether the Conservatives get a majority or not and likewise if an NDP-Liberal coalition is viable or not. The Conservatives should win the majority of seats in BC, but whether they hold their ground or lose to the NDP still remains to be seen.
I will give my initial reaction later tonight, but do an indepth analysis tomorrow or Wednesday on the regional breakdowns, why the parties fared the way they did, where they need to go going forward, and also whether a coalition is viable or not in the case of another Conservative minority.
Sunday 1 May 2011
Election Predictions
Here are my predictions based on the final polls. Considering how much has changed this election from last, I expect to get a whole whack of ridings wrong, but my overall prediction is pretty much in line with others so here we go.
Atlantic Canada
Tories pick up Avalon and Madawaska-Restigouche, while lose South-Shore-St. Margaret's to the NDP. The NDP also pick up St. John's South-Mount Pearl from the Liberals.
Liberals: 14 seats
Conservatives: 12 seats
NDP: 6 seats
Quebec
Due to rapid changes here, I will just give a general prediction not a riding by riding one.
NDP: 40 seats
Bloc Quebecois: 20 seats
Liberals: 8 seats
Conservatives: 5 seats
Independent: 1 seat (Andre Arthur)
Ontario
The Conservatives pick up Eglinton-Lawrence, Don Valley West, York Centre, Ajax-Pickering, hold Vaughan, regain Simcoe-Grey, pick up Brampton-Springdale, Brampton West, Mississauga South, Guelph, and Kingston & the Islands.
The NDP picks up Oshawa from the Conservatives, Parkdale-High Park, Beaches-East York, and Davenport from the Liberals.
Conservatives: 60 seats
Liberals: 25 seats
NDP: 22 seats
Manitoba
Winnipeg North flips back to the NDP, no other change from last election
Conservatives: 9 seats
NDP: 4 seats
Liberals: 1 seat
Saskatchewan
NDP picks up Saskatoon-Rosetown-Biggar, no other changes
Conservatives: 12 seats
NDP: 1 seat
Liberals: 1 seat
Alberta
Status quo
Conservatives: 27 seats
NDP: 1 seat
British Columbia
NDP picks up Surrey North and Vancouver Island North from the Conservatives and Esquimalt-Juan de Fuca from the Liberals
Conservatives: 20 seats
NDP: 12 seats
Liberals: 4 seats
North
Status quo, so one for each of the federalist parties
TOTALS
Conservatives: 146 seats
NDP: 87 seats
Liberals: 54 seats
Bloc Quebecois: 20 seats
Independent: 1 seat (Andre Arthur)
Atlantic Canada
Tories pick up Avalon and Madawaska-Restigouche, while lose South-Shore-St. Margaret's to the NDP. The NDP also pick up St. John's South-Mount Pearl from the Liberals.
Liberals: 14 seats
Conservatives: 12 seats
NDP: 6 seats
Quebec
Due to rapid changes here, I will just give a general prediction not a riding by riding one.
NDP: 40 seats
Bloc Quebecois: 20 seats
Liberals: 8 seats
Conservatives: 5 seats
Independent: 1 seat (Andre Arthur)
Ontario
The Conservatives pick up Eglinton-Lawrence, Don Valley West, York Centre, Ajax-Pickering, hold Vaughan, regain Simcoe-Grey, pick up Brampton-Springdale, Brampton West, Mississauga South, Guelph, and Kingston & the Islands.
The NDP picks up Oshawa from the Conservatives, Parkdale-High Park, Beaches-East York, and Davenport from the Liberals.
Conservatives: 60 seats
Liberals: 25 seats
NDP: 22 seats
Manitoba
Winnipeg North flips back to the NDP, no other change from last election
Conservatives: 9 seats
NDP: 4 seats
Liberals: 1 seat
Saskatchewan
NDP picks up Saskatoon-Rosetown-Biggar, no other changes
Conservatives: 12 seats
NDP: 1 seat
Liberals: 1 seat
Alberta
Status quo
Conservatives: 27 seats
NDP: 1 seat
British Columbia
NDP picks up Surrey North and Vancouver Island North from the Conservatives and Esquimalt-Juan de Fuca from the Liberals
Conservatives: 20 seats
NDP: 12 seats
Liberals: 4 seats
North
Status quo, so one for each of the federalist parties
TOTALS
Conservatives: 146 seats
NDP: 87 seats
Liberals: 54 seats
Bloc Quebecois: 20 seats
Independent: 1 seat (Andre Arthur)
Final Analysis of Campaign
I will post my seat projections later this evening when the final polls come out, but here are my thoughts so far for each of the parties.
Conservatives
They will win the most seats, but whether they gain or lose is still a question and likewise a majority looks unlikely but not impossible. Either way they made a couple of strategic errors which probably cost them. They were right to bring up the coalition issue, but they played it up way too much. Likewise they should have focused on Canada's strong economic position versus others. The economy is their strength and had they made that the ballot question they probably could have won a majority. Instead this election became more about which leader is most appealing and off course Jack Layton wins hands down.
Liberals
Ran a fairly solid campaign and had a reasonably balanced platform yet barring some last minute shift are on the brink of their worst showing ever. We will have to see the seat breakdown before saying too much, but here is my thoughts on what wrong. After being defeated in 2006, the Liberals never really rebuilt, they just assumed Canadians would naturally return to the Liberals at some point. They also never clearly defined what they stood for thus leaving it to others to define them. Likewise their obsession with urging NDP voters to vote Liberal to block the Tories may now have the opposite effect as with the NDP being well ahead in the polls, many Liberals who want to stop a Harper majority may now considering voting strategically and voting NDP. While there aren't a whole lot of Blue Liberals left, there is a possibility, albeit I wouldn't count on it, that in Ontario, especially the 905 belt, some Blue Liberals will bolt to the Tories to stop an NDP government. The only saving grace for the Liberals is they have a strong campaign team and also with a strong turnout at advanced polls, this just might save them in many ridings they were expected to lose.
Bloc Quebecois
If there is any party that is going to face a major electoral shell shocking it is the Bloc. There is actually a risk they could lose their official party status, although with their strong ground organization I don't think that is likely to happen. While few saw this dramatic a fall coming, I believe what really caused this was many people saw the Bloc as having outlived its usefulness. Back in 2003, it looked like the Liberals were going to sweep Quebec and annihiliate the Bloc, but then they got saved by the sponsorship scandal. In 2008, it looked like the Tories would make a breakthrough in Quebec, but Harper's stupid comments on the arts cost him here. With adscam still fresh in Quebecers memories and the Tories being offside with Quebec public opinion, it is easy for the Bloc Quebecois to win over those two parties. But with the NDP never having been in power either provincially or federally, there isn't really much Duceppe can attack them on. Bloc Quebecois is more a safe place to park one's votes if they find the other parties unappealing, but most Quebecers would rather vote for a party that can win nationally than one that cannot.
NDP
We will have to see the exact numbers, but this could be the historical breakthrough the NDP has long dreamed of. I believe their success is mainly because Jack Layton is a likeable person and also there is a large portion of the population that is delusioned with the two main parties. Many dislike Stephen Harper, but don't like Ignatieff either. Many want to turf the Conservatives from office, but aren't ready to return the Liberals to power, thus this is where the NDP suddenly comes into play. The big challenge will be how they perform with their increase in seats and whether this will be a permanate realignment in politics or just a blip on the radar.
Conservatives
They will win the most seats, but whether they gain or lose is still a question and likewise a majority looks unlikely but not impossible. Either way they made a couple of strategic errors which probably cost them. They were right to bring up the coalition issue, but they played it up way too much. Likewise they should have focused on Canada's strong economic position versus others. The economy is their strength and had they made that the ballot question they probably could have won a majority. Instead this election became more about which leader is most appealing and off course Jack Layton wins hands down.
Liberals
Ran a fairly solid campaign and had a reasonably balanced platform yet barring some last minute shift are on the brink of their worst showing ever. We will have to see the seat breakdown before saying too much, but here is my thoughts on what wrong. After being defeated in 2006, the Liberals never really rebuilt, they just assumed Canadians would naturally return to the Liberals at some point. They also never clearly defined what they stood for thus leaving it to others to define them. Likewise their obsession with urging NDP voters to vote Liberal to block the Tories may now have the opposite effect as with the NDP being well ahead in the polls, many Liberals who want to stop a Harper majority may now considering voting strategically and voting NDP. While there aren't a whole lot of Blue Liberals left, there is a possibility, albeit I wouldn't count on it, that in Ontario, especially the 905 belt, some Blue Liberals will bolt to the Tories to stop an NDP government. The only saving grace for the Liberals is they have a strong campaign team and also with a strong turnout at advanced polls, this just might save them in many ridings they were expected to lose.
Bloc Quebecois
If there is any party that is going to face a major electoral shell shocking it is the Bloc. There is actually a risk they could lose their official party status, although with their strong ground organization I don't think that is likely to happen. While few saw this dramatic a fall coming, I believe what really caused this was many people saw the Bloc as having outlived its usefulness. Back in 2003, it looked like the Liberals were going to sweep Quebec and annihiliate the Bloc, but then they got saved by the sponsorship scandal. In 2008, it looked like the Tories would make a breakthrough in Quebec, but Harper's stupid comments on the arts cost him here. With adscam still fresh in Quebecers memories and the Tories being offside with Quebec public opinion, it is easy for the Bloc Quebecois to win over those two parties. But with the NDP never having been in power either provincially or federally, there isn't really much Duceppe can attack them on. Bloc Quebecois is more a safe place to park one's votes if they find the other parties unappealing, but most Quebecers would rather vote for a party that can win nationally than one that cannot.
NDP
We will have to see the exact numbers, but this could be the historical breakthrough the NDP has long dreamed of. I believe their success is mainly because Jack Layton is a likeable person and also there is a large portion of the population that is delusioned with the two main parties. Many dislike Stephen Harper, but don't like Ignatieff either. Many want to turf the Conservatives from office, but aren't ready to return the Liberals to power, thus this is where the NDP suddenly comes into play. The big challenge will be how they perform with their increase in seats and whether this will be a permanate realignment in politics or just a blip on the radar.
Friday 29 April 2011
A volatile election
Many predicted this would be a Seinfield election where not much would change. This appears to be anything but the case as we may see a historical realignment. I will hold off on my projections until Sunday evening, but outside of Quebec I hope to give a riding by riding projection but if the polls are too volatile I will give a generall seat projection by province. For Quebec, too much has changed to realistically predict each seat. The NDP will win at least 20 seats and possibly in excess of 50 seats, but the exact number is tough to determine. The Bloc Quebecois will take a big hit and may even lose its official party status under the worse case scenario while the Tories will almost certainly lose seats in Quebec albeit not all. The Liberals likewise should hold some of their West Montreal ridings but it won't be a good election for either of the two parties in Quebec. Outside Quebec, I think the changes will be a little less dramatic than the polls suggest. In Atlantic Canada, last time around, the Liberals got 34%, Tories 29%, and NDP 26% and since the polls are close to this and don't think you will see a whole lot of seat changes here and most of the seat changes will be in close ridings. One thing that may hurt the NDP surge is they are strongest in Nova Scotia which has an unpopular provincial NDP government. In Ontario, the Tories are steady in the upper 30s and may even get in the low 40s so whether they gain or lose will depend on whether the NDP and Liberals split the vote heavily or one moves ahead. Based on the past bad experiences with an NDP government, I cannot see the NDP getting over 30% in Ontario and thus I think their pickups will be limited and they may even lose a couple of seats. In Western Canada, the NDP surge still has yet to materialize as the Tories are ahead in all Western provinces and the NDP in second as usual. The NDP may pick up some seats in British Columbia, but probably not very many. Of the NDP gains they will overwhelmingly be in Quebec. I also don't think it is a foregone conclusion they will come in second in terms of seats. The Liberal vote is more concentrated and the Liberals have a better GOTV strategy in more ridings than the NDP does even though the NDP has a stronger GOTV strategy in the few ridings they are competitive in. In fact I could still see the Liberals narrowly beating out the NDP, especially considering NDP support is soft and strongest amongst younger voters who are least likely to show up. A Tory majority is unlikely but not impossible, especially if there is a strong split in Ontario and they do a good job of bringing out their supporters.
On a personal note, I have tried to make this blog as non-partisan as possible, but I am quite disturbed about the fact Canada may be moving to a more polarized political environment. Having the Liberals and Progressive Conservatives who were both close to the centre served Canada well in the past and I believe the PC demise in 1993 and the rise of the Reform Party was a bad thing for Canada. I likewise believe the demise of the Liberal party and replacement by the NDP would be a bad thing too. Many European countries have polarized electorates between left and right and this is not a path I want to go down. That is why my hope is if the Tories win a majority, they don't go too far to the right, especially on social issues. I am fairly conservative on economic issues so if they follow the Thatcher/Reagan style on fiscal policies I am a little less concerned although I would hope they are more conciliatory to their opponents. Likewise I hope the Liberals, not the NDP come in second in terms of seats so when Canadians do get rid of the Tories be it in a couple months through a coalition (which I am no fan of) or winning outright in 5-10 years down the road, hopefully it is the Liberals not the NDP. Also the NDP have a pie in the sky platform which is common of many parties that don't expect to win and have many inexperienced candidates who may win their seats. At least in provinces like Saskatchewan or Manitoba, the NDP has to make realistic promises and also has experienced candidates.
On a personal note, I have tried to make this blog as non-partisan as possible, but I am quite disturbed about the fact Canada may be moving to a more polarized political environment. Having the Liberals and Progressive Conservatives who were both close to the centre served Canada well in the past and I believe the PC demise in 1993 and the rise of the Reform Party was a bad thing for Canada. I likewise believe the demise of the Liberal party and replacement by the NDP would be a bad thing too. Many European countries have polarized electorates between left and right and this is not a path I want to go down. That is why my hope is if the Tories win a majority, they don't go too far to the right, especially on social issues. I am fairly conservative on economic issues so if they follow the Thatcher/Reagan style on fiscal policies I am a little less concerned although I would hope they are more conciliatory to their opponents. Likewise I hope the Liberals, not the NDP come in second in terms of seats so when Canadians do get rid of the Tories be it in a couple months through a coalition (which I am no fan of) or winning outright in 5-10 years down the road, hopefully it is the Liberals not the NDP. Also the NDP have a pie in the sky platform which is common of many parties that don't expect to win and have many inexperienced candidates who may win their seats. At least in provinces like Saskatchewan or Manitoba, the NDP has to make realistic promises and also has experienced candidates.
Wednesday 27 April 2011
NDP Surge nationally?
With the NDP polling at an all time high and the other parties declining, there has been some speculation that Jack Layton will be our next PM. I think this is far less likely than many make it out to be. If we look at a regional level, Atlantic Canada has a high margin of error so probably better to do a riding by riding analysis or take the aggregate average of all polls. In Ontario, the Tories are still polling close to or even slightly above the 39% they got last time around and considering they are strongest amongst those most likely to show up, the polls if they stay in place would actually result in them gaining rather than losing seats. In the West, the Tories are still out in front and the NDP in second much like last time so despite some predictions the NDP will get over 100 seats, when one does a riding by riding analysis I am skeptical of anything above 80 seats and that is assuming they maintain their current level of support. In terms of predictions, I will probably give a general one for Quebec as the shifts have been so great that relying on past polls really doesn't work. I do believe the NDP will pick up quite a few seats in Quebec, but the exact number is still yet to be determined. Elsewhere in Canada, not enough has changed to warrant any seat change predictions at this point.
Sunday 24 April 2011
CBC Vote Compass
The CBC vote compass has received a lot of criticism, anyways they have now given the top ten ridings in favour and against for each question asked. While I won't go through all the details, I did notice a few interesting things. On most questions, whichever answer favoured the Conservatives usually resulted in most and many cases all being in Conservative held ridings while the more left leaning response was typically in Vancouver, Winnipeg, Toronto, and Montreal and all in ridings where the Conservatives are not even competitive. Another thing that jumped out is on a few questions such as closer relations with the US and a greater role of the private sector in health care, the top choices were from Quebec, but they were all in the Quebec City area and Appalaches-Chaudieres, otherwise those that are held by the Tories (also Andre Arthur's riding who usually votes with them anyways), so it does suggest this part of the province is more right wing than the other parts. Lots of ones from the Prairies for the pro-Tory responses although on a few questions saw up to four ridings in New Brunswick all held by the Tories. On the case of taxing the rich and corporations, those most against were in the GTA and were either ridings the Tories picked up in 2008 or Liberal held ones that are vulnerable. Off course these were all wealthy ridings, but it does suggest that although the Liberal plan to raise corporate taxes may win them points amongst the soft NDP votes, it could cost them some of the more affluent GTA ridings which have gone Liberal in the past (this off course assumes the compass is representative). Anyways here is the link so check it out http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/canadavotes2011/features/votecompass/map/
Thursday 21 April 2011
NDP surge
Based on the spate of recent polls, one cannot deny something is happening and possibly something quite big. Until we see an established pattern, I don't plan to update my projections, but lets just say it looks like the NDP will win more than 2 seats in Quebec. Outside Quebec, the NDP maybe doing well, but there is nothing really unusual about their numbers and I don't totally buy the idea that since Quebec has swung towards the NDP, so will English Canada. If we look at each region we can see the following.
Atlantic Canada
The polls have high margins of error, but the NDP certainly has gained here, but still sits in third and considering there are strongest in Nova Scotia where they have an unpopular provincial NDP government, I don't expect them to gain a lot here. Maybe a seat or two, but that is about it. As for vote splitting, it is tough to say, however there are at least 5 ridingsif not more when incumbency is factored in where the Tories are over 45% meaning they will probably hold those ridings either way. At this point I see no reason to alter the predictions here.
Ontario
Some polls show the NDP in the low 20s, but their polling in Ontario is no higher than they were 10 days before the election in 2004, 2006, and 2008 so I am quite skeptical about any gains here. With the economy being a bigger issue in Ontario than other provinces and the NDP being seen as weak here, I expect they will finish in third. In fact if an election were held today, I suspect the results in Ontario would be very similiar to 2008 with only a few close ridings changing hands. Also, Ontario had an NDP government from 1990-1995 and considering voter turnout is much higher amongst those over 40 than under 40, many voters still remember this and will be very reluctant to vote for them. Also in most ridings even with the changing polls it is still clear that the Liberals have a far better chance of defeating Tories so those who vote strategically will probably stick with the Liberals unless the NDP polls well ahead nationally
Western Canada
In the Prairies, the Tories got over 50% in 7 of the 9 ridings they won in Manitoba, and 10 of the 13 ridings they won in Saskatchewan and considering the NDP rise is having almost no impact on the Tories, I doubt it will result in too many seat changes here. Also the NDP in Saskitoba is only around 25% which is close to what they got last time around. In the case of British Columbia, this could cost the Tories seats, but most polls only show the NDP in the high 20s like last time around and considering the bad experience BC had with the NDP in power provincially during the 90s, I don't think they will get much above 30% and I doubt they will surpass the Tories as the Tories have a pretty strong base in BC to begin with.
Quebec
Quebec is a whole different story and no doubt if those numbers hold we could see a massive shift in many seats. This would not be the first time this has happened in Quebec, after all in 1984, the PCs went from 1 to 58 seats, in the 2007 provincial election, the ADQ nearly formed government after only having 4 seats in the previous election so a huge NDP gain in Quebec is quite possible. In fact considering Quebec is more left wing than any other province in Canada, I have often wondered why the NDP didn't do better here. Most of their support comes from the Bloc Quebecois, so that is the party that is most likely to suffer. It may actually save the Tories some seats due to vote splitting as there aren't a whole lot of Tory-NDP switchers in Quebec. I also don't think it will hurt the Liberals as badly as some think since Liberal support in the Montreal area is mostly on the West Island which is fairly affluent and the NDP has never done well amongst the affluent. If anything, their gains will more likely be on the East Island which is working class and also Bloc Quebecois. Either way, I suspect my predictions are probably fairly off but until the polls stabilize and we get a clearer picture, I don't plan to change anything. One thing I have found is Ontario is usually the easiest province to predict in terms of seats while Quebec is the most difficult as it is not uncommon for Quebecers to move en masse towards a certain party. In the case of Ontario, any party that won a riding by more than 10% will usually hold it and I suspect most if not all ridings won by more than 10% last time around will back the same party. I will update my predictions after the Easter weekend when we have a clearer idea of what is going on. The one thing that is clear is this election could be a game changer despite all the predictions that this would be a Seinfield election and we would get an almost identical parliament.
Atlantic Canada
The polls have high margins of error, but the NDP certainly has gained here, but still sits in third and considering there are strongest in Nova Scotia where they have an unpopular provincial NDP government, I don't expect them to gain a lot here. Maybe a seat or two, but that is about it. As for vote splitting, it is tough to say, however there are at least 5 ridingsif not more when incumbency is factored in where the Tories are over 45% meaning they will probably hold those ridings either way. At this point I see no reason to alter the predictions here.
Ontario
Some polls show the NDP in the low 20s, but their polling in Ontario is no higher than they were 10 days before the election in 2004, 2006, and 2008 so I am quite skeptical about any gains here. With the economy being a bigger issue in Ontario than other provinces and the NDP being seen as weak here, I expect they will finish in third. In fact if an election were held today, I suspect the results in Ontario would be very similiar to 2008 with only a few close ridings changing hands. Also, Ontario had an NDP government from 1990-1995 and considering voter turnout is much higher amongst those over 40 than under 40, many voters still remember this and will be very reluctant to vote for them. Also in most ridings even with the changing polls it is still clear that the Liberals have a far better chance of defeating Tories so those who vote strategically will probably stick with the Liberals unless the NDP polls well ahead nationally
Western Canada
In the Prairies, the Tories got over 50% in 7 of the 9 ridings they won in Manitoba, and 10 of the 13 ridings they won in Saskatchewan and considering the NDP rise is having almost no impact on the Tories, I doubt it will result in too many seat changes here. Also the NDP in Saskitoba is only around 25% which is close to what they got last time around. In the case of British Columbia, this could cost the Tories seats, but most polls only show the NDP in the high 20s like last time around and considering the bad experience BC had with the NDP in power provincially during the 90s, I don't think they will get much above 30% and I doubt they will surpass the Tories as the Tories have a pretty strong base in BC to begin with.
Quebec
Quebec is a whole different story and no doubt if those numbers hold we could see a massive shift in many seats. This would not be the first time this has happened in Quebec, after all in 1984, the PCs went from 1 to 58 seats, in the 2007 provincial election, the ADQ nearly formed government after only having 4 seats in the previous election so a huge NDP gain in Quebec is quite possible. In fact considering Quebec is more left wing than any other province in Canada, I have often wondered why the NDP didn't do better here. Most of their support comes from the Bloc Quebecois, so that is the party that is most likely to suffer. It may actually save the Tories some seats due to vote splitting as there aren't a whole lot of Tory-NDP switchers in Quebec. I also don't think it will hurt the Liberals as badly as some think since Liberal support in the Montreal area is mostly on the West Island which is fairly affluent and the NDP has never done well amongst the affluent. If anything, their gains will more likely be on the East Island which is working class and also Bloc Quebecois. Either way, I suspect my predictions are probably fairly off but until the polls stabilize and we get a clearer picture, I don't plan to change anything. One thing I have found is Ontario is usually the easiest province to predict in terms of seats while Quebec is the most difficult as it is not uncommon for Quebecers to move en masse towards a certain party. In the case of Ontario, any party that won a riding by more than 10% will usually hold it and I suspect most if not all ridings won by more than 10% last time around will back the same party. I will update my predictions after the Easter weekend when we have a clearer idea of what is going on. The one thing that is clear is this election could be a game changer despite all the predictions that this would be a Seinfield election and we would get an almost identical parliament.
Abortion and Coalition issue
An MP from Saskatchewan, Brad Trost talked about cutting off funding to planned parenthood due to their pro-abortion position. The Tories wouldn't say whether they would or not, but made clear they would not past an anti-abortion law. Certainly this plays to the hidden agenda issue although I don't think based on the current polls and likely results a women's right to choose is threatened. It is true that the majority of Conservative MPs oppose abortion, however they do have a sizable minority who are pro-choice so they would need to win at least 190 seats to have any chance at passing an anti-abortion bill. While some point out that there are some pro-life Liberals, many of those came from Rural Ontario which is now largely Conservative and of the few remaining, I suspect it would be a whipped vote if the Tories had a majority thus it wouldn't pass. In 1987, Bill Domm's private members bill to reinstate the death penalty received the support of the majority of PC MPs, but a minority voted against it combined with almost all opposition members, so it was defeated despite the fact the PCs had a strong majority of 211 seats.
On the issue of a coalition, Ignatieff stated in a CBC interview that whichever party had the most seats would get a chance to govern first, but if they lost the confidence of the house and the governor general called on his party to form the government, he would be willing to. From a constitutional point of view, what he said is entirely correct. However, when it comes to coalitions, there are two things that need to be considered. First is it constitutionally valid and if the Tories have a minority and the opposition leader who wishes to become PM can command the confidence of the majority of members in the house of commons, then absolutely it is. The second is whether it is morally valid and this is a gray area that depends heavily on public opinion. While the opposition parties can ignore public opinion if they wish to, they do so at their own peril. If the Tories lose a whole whack of seats and the Liberals get over 100 seats and the NDP and Liberals have the majority of seats in the House of Commons, then the public might support such an arrangement, however if the Tories increase their seat count but fall short of a majority, the Liberals lose seats but still remain the official opposition, the public would likely react quite negatively and both the NDP and Liberals would likely taking a beating in the next election. While what Ignatieff said was constitutionally correct, it was probably not the smartest thing to say. Even if planning such a move, better to not say anything about it during an election and then do it after and hope that by the time the next election rolls around, people forget about the broken promise. While I will discuss the probability of a coalition in more detail after the election results are in, I don't think the Liberals will try to form government unless they gain several seats and the Tories lose several. If it was 120 seats for the Tories and 100 seats for the Liberals then they might, but if it produces similiar results to the last election or the Tories gain seats but fall short of majority, then I don't think we will see a coalition. Likewise despite Harper's unwillingness to cooperate, I think if backed into a corner he would make enough concessions to get one party on side albeit very reluctantly.
On the issue of a coalition, Ignatieff stated in a CBC interview that whichever party had the most seats would get a chance to govern first, but if they lost the confidence of the house and the governor general called on his party to form the government, he would be willing to. From a constitutional point of view, what he said is entirely correct. However, when it comes to coalitions, there are two things that need to be considered. First is it constitutionally valid and if the Tories have a minority and the opposition leader who wishes to become PM can command the confidence of the majority of members in the house of commons, then absolutely it is. The second is whether it is morally valid and this is a gray area that depends heavily on public opinion. While the opposition parties can ignore public opinion if they wish to, they do so at their own peril. If the Tories lose a whole whack of seats and the Liberals get over 100 seats and the NDP and Liberals have the majority of seats in the House of Commons, then the public might support such an arrangement, however if the Tories increase their seat count but fall short of a majority, the Liberals lose seats but still remain the official opposition, the public would likely react quite negatively and both the NDP and Liberals would likely taking a beating in the next election. While what Ignatieff said was constitutionally correct, it was probably not the smartest thing to say. Even if planning such a move, better to not say anything about it during an election and then do it after and hope that by the time the next election rolls around, people forget about the broken promise. While I will discuss the probability of a coalition in more detail after the election results are in, I don't think the Liberals will try to form government unless they gain several seats and the Tories lose several. If it was 120 seats for the Tories and 100 seats for the Liberals then they might, but if it produces similiar results to the last election or the Tories gain seats but fall short of majority, then I don't think we will see a coalition. Likewise despite Harper's unwillingness to cooperate, I think if backed into a corner he would make enough concessions to get one party on side albeit very reluctantly.
Tuesday 19 April 2011
Prediction Updates
Here are the changes I am making
Nova Scotia
Halifax - NDP
Liberals 5-6 seats
Conservatives 2-4 seats
NDP 2-3 seats
Atlantic Canada
Liberals 11-21 seats
Conservatives 6-17 seats
NDP 4-6 seats
Quebec
Portneuf-Jacques Cartier back too close to call being an Independent-BQ battleground. Since Andre Arthur usually votes with the Tories they could probably count on his vote if they fall just short of a majority
Outremont - NDP
Bloc Quebecois: 43-56 seats
Liberals: 12-20 seats
Conservatives: 6-11 seats
NDP: 1-2 seats
Independent: 0-1 seat
Ontario
Conservatives: Thornhill, Oakville, Brant, Kenora, Glengarry-Prescott-Russell
Liberals: Bramalea-Gore-Malton and Guelph
Conservatives: 44-63 seats
Liberals: 28-48 seats
NDP: 12-18 seats
Manitoba
Conservatives: Winnipeg South
Conservatives: 8-11 seats
Liberals: 0-3 seats
NDP: 2-4 seats
Saskatchewan
Conservatives: Palliser
Conservatives: 11-13 seats
Liberals: 1 seat
NDP: 0-2 seats
National Totals:
Conservatives: 120 - 171 seats
Liberals: 55 - 102 seats
Bloc Quebecois: 43 - 56 seats
NDP: 25 - 47 seats
Independent: 0 -3 seats (all centre-right so would probably back the Tories on most legislation and confidence votes)
Green Party: 0 - 1 seats
After the Easter weekend or if any dramatic changes occur, I will update my predictions.
Nova Scotia
Halifax - NDP
Liberals 5-6 seats
Conservatives 2-4 seats
NDP 2-3 seats
Atlantic Canada
Liberals 11-21 seats
Conservatives 6-17 seats
NDP 4-6 seats
Quebec
Portneuf-Jacques Cartier back too close to call being an Independent-BQ battleground. Since Andre Arthur usually votes with the Tories they could probably count on his vote if they fall just short of a majority
Outremont - NDP
Bloc Quebecois: 43-56 seats
Liberals: 12-20 seats
Conservatives: 6-11 seats
NDP: 1-2 seats
Independent: 0-1 seat
Ontario
Conservatives: Thornhill, Oakville, Brant, Kenora, Glengarry-Prescott-Russell
Liberals: Bramalea-Gore-Malton and Guelph
Conservatives: 44-63 seats
Liberals: 28-48 seats
NDP: 12-18 seats
Manitoba
Conservatives: Winnipeg South
Conservatives: 8-11 seats
Liberals: 0-3 seats
NDP: 2-4 seats
Saskatchewan
Conservatives: Palliser
Conservatives: 11-13 seats
Liberals: 1 seat
NDP: 0-2 seats
National Totals:
Conservatives: 120 - 171 seats
Liberals: 55 - 102 seats
Bloc Quebecois: 43 - 56 seats
NDP: 25 - 47 seats
Independent: 0 -3 seats (all centre-right so would probably back the Tories on most legislation and confidence votes)
Green Party: 0 - 1 seats
After the Easter weekend or if any dramatic changes occur, I will update my predictions.
Monday 18 April 2011
Health Care attacks ads and BC NDP leadership race
The Liberals released some attack ads quoting Harper as wanting to scrap the Canada Health Act. While he may have been misquoted, there is no question in the past that Harper when president of the National Citizens' Coalition was no fan of the Canada Health Act. Considering health care is a Tory weak spot, they could work, at the same time it might make the Liberals appear desperate. Also if you use the same fear tactics election after election, people tune out after a while. In addition, I believe there needs to be an adult conversation on health care. Very few Canadians support a US style health care system whereby one can be denied treatment due to their inability to pay. However, whether it is publicly or privately delivered as long as it is publicly funded is debatable and does not undermine universal health care. I don't have too strong a preference for either and believe it should be judged on a case by case basis. In fact private delivery of health care is perfectly legal provided it is publicly funded. The other one is allowing a parallel private system whereby the public system is available for everyone but those who wish to leave the system and pay for their treatment in a separate parallel private one is permitted. Although the Canada Health Act does not explicitly prohibit this, many argue such system is not compatible with the Canada Health Act and also many provincial regulations prohibit such system. It should be noted almost every other developed country has a parallel private system including normally more left leaning countries such as Sweden, Germany, Netherlands, and France so hardly a radical idea. At the same time it is not a pancea solution to health care either as the Fraser Institute may argue. Also there are some private clinics where patients can pay for medically necessary services already operating in Canada, especially in BC and Quebec. Whether one favours or opposes such a system, I believe the debate should be civil and should look at the pros and cons, not involve fearmongering. Those opposed to it should stop calling it US style health care and the end of universal health care and likewise those who favour it should stop saying we should adopt it because North Korea and Cuba are the only other countries to prohibit it (which is not entirely true as other countries do have some restrictions on private health care and it is not totally banned in Canada, albeit governments certainly try to severely restrict it). Finally, one can favour scrapping the Canada Health Act simply because they believe health care is a provincial responsibility and should be left up to the provinces. It is important to note that under the constitution, health care is a provincial not federal responsibility. The CHA only sets rules the provinces must follow in order to receive funding; the provinces can ignore them if they are willing to forgo the funding. Likewise considering how important universal health care is to Canadians from coast to coast and that any provincial government who privatized it would have their party annihiliated in the next election, I doubt it would disappear even if Harper did scrap the CHA. Still, politics is about perception not reality, and many do believe health care is a federal responsibility and do believe scrapping the CHA would mean the end of universal health care.
The other issue is the BC NDP talk a sharp turn to the left by choosing left wing ideologue Adrian Dix as their new leader over the more moderate Mike Farnworth. While a lot can happen between now and the next election, I think the NDP's chances with Mike Farnworth would have been much better than with Adrian Dix. Many of those in the centre who are tired of the BC Liberals and looking for an alternative will stick with the BC Liberals. In fact, ironically the BC Liberals choose to move towards the centre with their choice of Christy Clark as opposed to Kevin Falcon who was more right wing. Also many on the right who were planning to vote for the BC Conservatives since they didn't like either the BC Liberals or BC NDP but didn't dislike one more than the other will now probably hold their noses up and vote BC Liberal just to keep the NDP out. Most in BC want a government who can work with both labour and business, not one who is too heavily indebted to one and hostile to the other. And likewise the hardcore ideas Dix advocates are largely ideas of the passed that NDP parties in other provinces, federally, and likewise social democratic parties in other countries have ditched.
Recently many polls have showed the NDP surging in Quebec. Since it has only been a few days, I will wait until the end of the week before updating my predictions as sometimes surges stick and other times they retreat. I will say though that since the NDP support is not concentrated in any region of Quebec, 25% will not result in a whole lot of seats in Quebec. In fact the Liberals could get 15% and the NDP 25% in Quebec yet the Liberals would still win more seats simply because their vote is more concentrated.
The other issue is the BC NDP talk a sharp turn to the left by choosing left wing ideologue Adrian Dix as their new leader over the more moderate Mike Farnworth. While a lot can happen between now and the next election, I think the NDP's chances with Mike Farnworth would have been much better than with Adrian Dix. Many of those in the centre who are tired of the BC Liberals and looking for an alternative will stick with the BC Liberals. In fact, ironically the BC Liberals choose to move towards the centre with their choice of Christy Clark as opposed to Kevin Falcon who was more right wing. Also many on the right who were planning to vote for the BC Conservatives since they didn't like either the BC Liberals or BC NDP but didn't dislike one more than the other will now probably hold their noses up and vote BC Liberal just to keep the NDP out. Most in BC want a government who can work with both labour and business, not one who is too heavily indebted to one and hostile to the other. And likewise the hardcore ideas Dix advocates are largely ideas of the passed that NDP parties in other provinces, federally, and likewise social democratic parties in other countries have ditched.
Recently many polls have showed the NDP surging in Quebec. Since it has only been a few days, I will wait until the end of the week before updating my predictions as sometimes surges stick and other times they retreat. I will say though that since the NDP support is not concentrated in any region of Quebec, 25% will not result in a whole lot of seats in Quebec. In fact the Liberals could get 15% and the NDP 25% in Quebec yet the Liberals would still win more seats simply because their vote is more concentrated.
Saturday 16 April 2011
Updated Predictions
Now that the first few polls have come since the debates, I thought it would be time to update my projections. Not a whole lot has changed. The Conservatives did take a hit after the leaked AG report and recovered slightly, but still no higher than a week ago. The Liberals needed a big boost if they were to realistically win the most seats and they did not get this, while the NDP seemed to get the biggest boost in the polls although still a long ways back from second place. Anyways here are my updated projections by province.
Newfoundland & Labrador
Liberal: Labardor, Humber-St. Barbe-Baie Verte, Bonavista-Gander-Grand Falls-Windsor, Random-Burin-St. George's
NDP: St. John's East
Liberal-Tory race: Avalon
Liberal-NDP-Tory Battleground - St. John's South-Mount Pearl
Liberals: 4-6 seats
NDP: 1-2 seats
Conservatives: 0-2 seats
Nova Scotia
Liberals: Sydney-Victoria, Cape Breton-Canso, Kings-Hants, Halifax West, and Dartmouth-Cole Harbour
Conservatives: Central Nova and Cumberland-Colchester-Musquodoboit Valley
NDP: Sackville-Eastern Shore
Liberal-Tory battleground: West Nova
NDP-Tory battleground: South Shore-St. Margaret's
Liberal-NDP battleground: Halifax
Liberals: 5-7 seats
Conservatives: 2-4 seats
NDP: 1-3 seats
Prince Edward Island
Safe Liberal: Cardigan
Liberal-Tory battleground but lean Liberal: Charlottetown and Malpeque
Liberal-Tory battleground but lean Tory: Egmont
Liberals: 1-4 seats
Conservatives: 0-3 seats
New Brunswick
Conservatives: Fredericton, Fundy-Royal, New Brunswick Southwest, and Tobique-Mactaquac
Liberals: Beausejour
NDP: Acadie-Bathurst
Liberal-Tory battleground but lean Tory: Miramichi and Saint John
Liberal-Tory battleground and too close to call: Madawaska-Restigouche
Liberal-Tory battleground but lean Liberal: Moncton-Riverview-Dieppe
Conservatives: 4-8 seats
Liberals 1-5 seats
NDP: 1 seat
Atlantic Canada Totals:
Liberals 11-22 seats
Conservatives: 6-17 seats
NDP: 3-6 seats
Quebec
Bloc Quebecois: Gaspesie-Iles-de-la-Madeleine, Rimouski-Neigette-Temiscouata-Les Basques, Richmond-Arthabaska, Bas-Richelieu-Nicolet-Becancour, Shefford, Compton-Stanstead, Sherbrooke, Drummond, Saint Hyacinthe-Bagot, Saint Jean, Beauharnois-Salaberry, Vaudreuil-Soulanges, Chateauguay-Saint Constant, Saint Lambert, Longueuil-Pierre Boucher, St. Bruno-St. Hubert, Vercheres-Les Patriotes, Chambly-Borduas, Laurier-Saint Marie, Rosemont-La Petite-Patrie, Hochelaga, La Pointe-de-l'Ile, Laval, Alfred-Pellan, Marc-Aurele-Fortin, Terrebonne-Blainville, Riviere du Nord, Laurentides-Labelle, Riviere-des-Milles-Iles, Argenteuil-Papineau-Mirabel, Abitibi-Temiscamingue, Montcalm, Repentigny, Berthier-Maskinoge, Joliette, Trois Rivieres, Saint Maurice-Champlain, Portneuf-Jacques Cartier, Louis-Hebert, Quebec, Montmorency-Charlevoix-Haute-Cote Nord, Manicouagan, Chicoutimi-Le Fjord, Abitibi-Baie James-Nunavik-Eeyou
Liberals: Lac-St. Louis, Pierrefonds-Dollards, Saint Laurent-Cartierville, Mount Royal, Notre-Dame-de-Grace-Lachine, La Salle-Emard, Westmount-Ville Marie, Bourassa, St. Leonard-St. Michel, Honore-Mercier, Laval-les-Iles, Hull-Aylmer
Conservatives: Levis-Bellechasse, Lotbiniere-Chutes-de-la-Chaudiere, Beauce, Megantic-L'Erable, Pontiac, Jonquiere-Alma
Bloc-Liberal battlegrounds: Haute-Gaspesie-La Mitis-Matane-Metapadia, Brome-Missiquoi, Brossard-La Prairie, Ahuntsic, Jeanne-Le Ber, and Papineau
Bloc-Tory battlegrounds: Montmagny-L'Islet-Kamouraksa-Riviere du Loup, Louis-St. Laurent, Charlesbourg-Haute-Saint Charles, Beauport-Limoliou, and Roberval-Lac Saint Jean
Liberal-NDP battleground: Outremont
Bloc-Liberal-NDP three way race: Gatineau
Bloc Quebecois: 44 - 56 seats
Liberals: 12 - 20 seats
Conservatives: 6 - 11 seats
NDP: 0 - 2 seats
I know some may say why don't you have the NDP with more seats considering most polls show them doing as well if not better than the Conservatives and Liberals. The reason for this is their support is not concentrated in anyone part of the province, whereas Liberal and Conservative support is more concentrated so even if they win fewer votes than the NDP, they will still get more seats.
Ontario:
Conservatives: Durham, Oshawa, Whitby-Oshawa, Newmarket-Aurora, York-Simcoe, Halton, Burlington, Ancaster-Dundas-Flamborough-Westdale, Niagara West-Glanbrook, St. Catherines, Niagara Falls, Simcoe North, Barrie, Dufferin-Caledon, Bruce-Grey-Owen Sound, Wellington-Halton Hills, Cambridge, Kitchener-Conestoga, Haldimand-Norfolk, Perth-Wellington, Oxford, Huron-Bruce, Elgin-Middlesex-London, Lambton-Kent-Middlesex, Chatham-Kent-Essex, Sarnia-Lambton, Essex, Parry Sound-Muskoka, Renfrew-Nippissing-Pembroke, Carleton-Mississippi Mills, Nepean-Carleton, Ottawa West-Nepean, Stormont-Dundas-South Glengarry, Leeds-Grenville, Lanark-Frontenac-Lennox & Addington, Haliburton-Kawartha Lakes-Brock, Prince Edward-Hastings, Peterborough, Northumberland-Quinte West
Liberals: Davenport, Toronto Centre, Beaches-East York, Don Valley East, Willowdale, St. Paul's, York South-Weston, York West, Etobicoke-Lakeshore, Etobicoke Centre, Etobicoke North, Scarborough Southwest, Scarborough Centre, Scarborough-Agincourt, Scarborough-Rouge River, Scarborough-Guildwood, Pickering-Scarborough East, Markham-Unionville, Richmond Hill, Mississauga-Brampton South, Mississauga East-Cooksville, Mississauga-Streetsville, London North Centre, Nippissing-Timiskaming, Ottawa South, and Ottawa-Vanier
NDP: Toronto-Danforth, Hamilton Centre, Hamilton East-Stoney Creek, London-Fanshawe, Windsor West, Windsor-Tecumseh, Thunder Bay-Rainy River, Thunder Bay-Superior North, Algoma-Manitoulin-Kapuskasing, Nickel Belt, and Ottawa Centre
Liberal-Tory battleground but lean Tory: Thornhill, Oakville, Brant, London West, Kenora, Ottawa-Orleans, and Glengarry-Prescott-Russell
Liberal-Tory battleground and too close to call: Ajax-Pickering, Vaughan, Oak Ridges-Markham, Brampton-Springdale, Brampton West, Mississauga South, Mississauga-Erindale, Kitchener Centre, Kitchener-Waterloo, and Kingston & the Islands
Liberal-Tory battleground and lean Liberal: Don Valley West, Eglinton-Lawrence, York Centre, Bramalea-Gore-Malton, and Guelph
NDP-Tory battleground: Sault Ste. Marie
Liberal-NDP battleground: Parkdale-High Park, Trinity-Spadina, and Sudbury
Tory-Independent battleground but lean Tory: Simcoe-Grey
Liberal-NDP-Tory battleground, but favours Tories vs. NDP: Welland
Liberal-NDP-Tory battleground, but favours Liberals vs. NDP: Hamilton Mountain
Conservatives: 39-65 seats
Liberals: 26-53 seats
NDP: 12-18 seats
Independent: 0-1 seat (Helena Guergis)
Manitoba
Conservatives: Dauphin-Swan River-Marquette, Selkirk-Interlake, Brandon-Souris, Portage-Lisgar, Provencher, Charleswood-St. James-Assinboia, Kildonan-St. Paul
NDP: Churchill and Winnipeg Centre
Liberal-Tory battleground but leans Tory: Winnipeg South and Saint Boniface
Liberal-Tory battleground but leans Liberal: Winnipeg South Centre
NDP-Tory battleground but leans NDP: Elmwood-Transcona
Liberal-NDP battleground and too close to call: Winnipeg North
Conservatives: 7-11 seats
NDP: 2-4 seats
Liberals: 0-4 seats
Saskatchewan
Conservatives: Prince Albert, Battlefords-Lloydminster, Cypress Hills-Grasslands, Souris-Moose Mountain, Yorkton-Melville, Regina-Lumsden-Lake Centre, Regina-Qu'appelle, Saskatoon-Wanuskewin, Saskatoon-Humboldt, and Blackstrap
Liberals: Wascana
Tory-NDP battleground but leans Tory: Palliser and Saskatoon-Rosetown-Biggar
Tory-NDP Battleground and too close to call: Desnethe-Missinippi-Churchill River
Conservatives: 10-13 seats
Liberals: 1 seat
NDP: 0-3 seats
Alberta
Conservatives: Fort McMurray-Athabasca, Peace River, Westlock-St. Paul, Yellowhead, Vegreville-Wainwright, Wetaskiwin, Red Deer, Crowfoot, Wild Rose, Medicine Hat, Macleod, Lethbridge, Calgary Southwest, Calgary West, Calgary-Nose Hill, Calgary Northeast, Calgary East, Calgary Southeast, Calgary Centre, Calgary Centre-North, Edmonton-Mill Woods-Beaumont, Edmonton-Leduc, Edmonton-Spruce Grove, Edmonton-St. Albert, Edmonton Centre, Edmonton East
Independent-Tory battleground but leans Tory - Edmonton-Sherwood Park
NDP-Tory battleground and too close to call - Edmonton-Strathcona
Conservatives: 26-28 seats
NDP: 0-1 seat
Independent: 0-1 seat (James Ford)
British Columbia
Conservatives: Prince George-Peace River, Cariboo-Prince George, Kamloops-Thompson-Cariboo, Okanagan-Shuswap, Kootenay-Columbia, Okanagan-Coquihalla, Kelowna-Lake Country, Nanaimo-Alberni, West Vancouver-Sunshine Coast-Sea to Sky Country, North Vancouver, Port Moody-Westwood-Port Coquitlam, Pitt Meadows-Maple Ridge-Mission, Richmond, Delta-Richmond East, Fleetwood-Port Kells, South Surrey-White Rock-Cloverdale, Langley, Abbotsford, Chilliwack-Fraser Canyon
NDP: Skeena-Bulkley Valley, British Columbia Southern Interior, Nanaimo-Cowichan, Victoria, Vancouver East, and Burnaby-New Westminster
Liberals: Vancouver-Quadra and Vancouver Centre
NDP-Tory battleground but leans Tory: Vancouver Island North
NDP-Tory battleground and too close to call: Esquimalt-Juan de Fuca, Burnaby-Douglas, and Surrey North
NDP-Tory battleground and leans NDP: New Westminster-Coquitlam
Liberal-Tory battleground and too close to call: Vancouver South
Green-Tory battleground but leans Tory: Saanich-Gulf Islands
Three way race favouring Liberals followed by Tories, then NDP: Newton-North Delta
Liberal-NDP battleground favouring the NDP: Vancouver-Kingsway
Conservatives: 19-26 seats
NDP: 6-13 seats
Liberals: 2-5 seats
Green Party: 0-1 seat (Elizabeth May)
North
Safe Liberal: Yukon
Liberal-Tory battleground but leans Tory: Nunavut
Liberal-NDP-Tory battleground and too close to call: Western Arctic
Liberals: 1-3 seats
Conservatives: 0-2 seats
NDP: 0-1 seat
National:
Conservatives: 113 - 173 seats
Liberals: 53 - 108 seats
Bloc Quebecois: 44 - 56 seats
NDP: 23 - 48 seats
Independent: 0 - 2 seats
Green Party: 0 - 1 seat
So in summary, the Conservatives still have a shot at a majority government and in the best case scenario would actually have a fairly decent one having their best showing since 1984 and third best since World War II. By the same token, there is a greater chance that they won't get a majority than will and while under the worse case scenario they would still have 5 seats more than the Liberals, I would be surprised if we see an informal arrangement whereby the opposition agrees to back the Liberals and unlike the 2008 coalition, there probably wouldn't be nearly as much opposition. In the case of the Liberals, they have virtually no chance at beating the Tories in terms of seats, but they can still improve greatly over 2008 which would allow for two things to happen, which are; 1. an informal arrangement with the other opposition parties to back them could allow Michael Ignatieff to become PM, 2. Even if this doesn't happen, Michael Ignatieff would likely get to stay on and get another shot in the next election. Under the worse case scenario, they could fall to third place, albeit highly unlikely but they would still have more seats than the NDP. Nonetheless a unite the left merger between the NDP and Liberals would increase greatly under this scenario. Either way, they may have the worse showing in terms of the popular vote, but there is almost no chance of them doing worse than 1984 in terms of seats (they got 40 seats this election) and in fact despite them trailing in the polls there is still a slightly better than even chance of them performing better than they did in 2008. For the Bloc Quebecois, they could gain or lose seats and maybe if lucky even set a record in terms of seats, but not the popular vote (49% is their record) as this time around they are much weaker than in 2004 or 1993 but face a more divided federalist opposition than in those years. Either way, they will still win the majority of seats in Quebec even if they don't get the majority of votes. For the NDP, there is a possibility, but not unlikely that they will break Ed Broadbent's seat record of 43 seats, while even in the worse case scenario, they will still do better than they did in 2004. What they probably have the best chance of doing is winning at least one seat in 9 out of 10 provinces with PEI being the only province they have no chance at winning any seats. For the two Independents, that I predicted could win, both are former Tories and are small "c" conservatives in terms of beliefs thus they would probably support the Tories on most legislation and if having them join the party would make a difference between and minority and majority, I suspect the party would let them join or at least get an agreement with them to support them on all confidence motions for the next four years but still be free to vote against them on individual bills which are not confidence motions. For the Green Party, it is really a matter of whether Elizabeth May can win her seat or not. If she can win her seat, the party will likely have a strong case for being in next elections' debates. This would also be the first Green Party seat won in an election in Canada at any level albeit not the first ever in a country using the first past the post system, this happened in Britain last May when they elected their first Green MP. Hopefully next week I can narrow things down a bit as poll numbers become clearer.
Newfoundland & Labrador
Liberal: Labardor, Humber-St. Barbe-Baie Verte, Bonavista-Gander-Grand Falls-Windsor, Random-Burin-St. George's
NDP: St. John's East
Liberal-Tory race: Avalon
Liberal-NDP-Tory Battleground - St. John's South-Mount Pearl
Liberals: 4-6 seats
NDP: 1-2 seats
Conservatives: 0-2 seats
Nova Scotia
Liberals: Sydney-Victoria, Cape Breton-Canso, Kings-Hants, Halifax West, and Dartmouth-Cole Harbour
Conservatives: Central Nova and Cumberland-Colchester-Musquodoboit Valley
NDP: Sackville-Eastern Shore
Liberal-Tory battleground: West Nova
NDP-Tory battleground: South Shore-St. Margaret's
Liberal-NDP battleground: Halifax
Liberals: 5-7 seats
Conservatives: 2-4 seats
NDP: 1-3 seats
Prince Edward Island
Safe Liberal: Cardigan
Liberal-Tory battleground but lean Liberal: Charlottetown and Malpeque
Liberal-Tory battleground but lean Tory: Egmont
Liberals: 1-4 seats
Conservatives: 0-3 seats
New Brunswick
Conservatives: Fredericton, Fundy-Royal, New Brunswick Southwest, and Tobique-Mactaquac
Liberals: Beausejour
NDP: Acadie-Bathurst
Liberal-Tory battleground but lean Tory: Miramichi and Saint John
Liberal-Tory battleground and too close to call: Madawaska-Restigouche
Liberal-Tory battleground but lean Liberal: Moncton-Riverview-Dieppe
Conservatives: 4-8 seats
Liberals 1-5 seats
NDP: 1 seat
Atlantic Canada Totals:
Liberals 11-22 seats
Conservatives: 6-17 seats
NDP: 3-6 seats
Quebec
Bloc Quebecois: Gaspesie-Iles-de-la-Madeleine, Rimouski-Neigette-Temiscouata-Les Basques, Richmond-Arthabaska, Bas-Richelieu-Nicolet-Becancour, Shefford, Compton-Stanstead, Sherbrooke, Drummond, Saint Hyacinthe-Bagot, Saint Jean, Beauharnois-Salaberry, Vaudreuil-Soulanges, Chateauguay-Saint Constant, Saint Lambert, Longueuil-Pierre Boucher, St. Bruno-St. Hubert, Vercheres-Les Patriotes, Chambly-Borduas, Laurier-Saint Marie, Rosemont-La Petite-Patrie, Hochelaga, La Pointe-de-l'Ile, Laval, Alfred-Pellan, Marc-Aurele-Fortin, Terrebonne-Blainville, Riviere du Nord, Laurentides-Labelle, Riviere-des-Milles-Iles, Argenteuil-Papineau-Mirabel, Abitibi-Temiscamingue, Montcalm, Repentigny, Berthier-Maskinoge, Joliette, Trois Rivieres, Saint Maurice-Champlain, Portneuf-Jacques Cartier, Louis-Hebert, Quebec, Montmorency-Charlevoix-Haute-Cote Nord, Manicouagan, Chicoutimi-Le Fjord, Abitibi-Baie James-Nunavik-Eeyou
Liberals: Lac-St. Louis, Pierrefonds-Dollards, Saint Laurent-Cartierville, Mount Royal, Notre-Dame-de-Grace-Lachine, La Salle-Emard, Westmount-Ville Marie, Bourassa, St. Leonard-St. Michel, Honore-Mercier, Laval-les-Iles, Hull-Aylmer
Conservatives: Levis-Bellechasse, Lotbiniere-Chutes-de-la-Chaudiere, Beauce, Megantic-L'Erable, Pontiac, Jonquiere-Alma
Bloc-Liberal battlegrounds: Haute-Gaspesie-La Mitis-Matane-Metapadia, Brome-Missiquoi, Brossard-La Prairie, Ahuntsic, Jeanne-Le Ber, and Papineau
Bloc-Tory battlegrounds: Montmagny-L'Islet-Kamouraksa-Riviere du Loup, Louis-St. Laurent, Charlesbourg-Haute-Saint Charles, Beauport-Limoliou, and Roberval-Lac Saint Jean
Liberal-NDP battleground: Outremont
Bloc-Liberal-NDP three way race: Gatineau
Bloc Quebecois: 44 - 56 seats
Liberals: 12 - 20 seats
Conservatives: 6 - 11 seats
NDP: 0 - 2 seats
I know some may say why don't you have the NDP with more seats considering most polls show them doing as well if not better than the Conservatives and Liberals. The reason for this is their support is not concentrated in anyone part of the province, whereas Liberal and Conservative support is more concentrated so even if they win fewer votes than the NDP, they will still get more seats.
Ontario:
Conservatives: Durham, Oshawa, Whitby-Oshawa, Newmarket-Aurora, York-Simcoe, Halton, Burlington, Ancaster-Dundas-Flamborough-Westdale, Niagara West-Glanbrook, St. Catherines, Niagara Falls, Simcoe North, Barrie, Dufferin-Caledon, Bruce-Grey-Owen Sound, Wellington-Halton Hills, Cambridge, Kitchener-Conestoga, Haldimand-Norfolk, Perth-Wellington, Oxford, Huron-Bruce, Elgin-Middlesex-London, Lambton-Kent-Middlesex, Chatham-Kent-Essex, Sarnia-Lambton, Essex, Parry Sound-Muskoka, Renfrew-Nippissing-Pembroke, Carleton-Mississippi Mills, Nepean-Carleton, Ottawa West-Nepean, Stormont-Dundas-South Glengarry, Leeds-Grenville, Lanark-Frontenac-Lennox & Addington, Haliburton-Kawartha Lakes-Brock, Prince Edward-Hastings, Peterborough, Northumberland-Quinte West
Liberals: Davenport, Toronto Centre, Beaches-East York, Don Valley East, Willowdale, St. Paul's, York South-Weston, York West, Etobicoke-Lakeshore, Etobicoke Centre, Etobicoke North, Scarborough Southwest, Scarborough Centre, Scarborough-Agincourt, Scarborough-Rouge River, Scarborough-Guildwood, Pickering-Scarborough East, Markham-Unionville, Richmond Hill, Mississauga-Brampton South, Mississauga East-Cooksville, Mississauga-Streetsville, London North Centre, Nippissing-Timiskaming, Ottawa South, and Ottawa-Vanier
NDP: Toronto-Danforth, Hamilton Centre, Hamilton East-Stoney Creek, London-Fanshawe, Windsor West, Windsor-Tecumseh, Thunder Bay-Rainy River, Thunder Bay-Superior North, Algoma-Manitoulin-Kapuskasing, Nickel Belt, and Ottawa Centre
Liberal-Tory battleground but lean Tory: Thornhill, Oakville, Brant, London West, Kenora, Ottawa-Orleans, and Glengarry-Prescott-Russell
Liberal-Tory battleground and too close to call: Ajax-Pickering, Vaughan, Oak Ridges-Markham, Brampton-Springdale, Brampton West, Mississauga South, Mississauga-Erindale, Kitchener Centre, Kitchener-Waterloo, and Kingston & the Islands
Liberal-Tory battleground and lean Liberal: Don Valley West, Eglinton-Lawrence, York Centre, Bramalea-Gore-Malton, and Guelph
NDP-Tory battleground: Sault Ste. Marie
Liberal-NDP battleground: Parkdale-High Park, Trinity-Spadina, and Sudbury
Tory-Independent battleground but lean Tory: Simcoe-Grey
Liberal-NDP-Tory battleground, but favours Tories vs. NDP: Welland
Liberal-NDP-Tory battleground, but favours Liberals vs. NDP: Hamilton Mountain
Conservatives: 39-65 seats
Liberals: 26-53 seats
NDP: 12-18 seats
Independent: 0-1 seat (Helena Guergis)
Manitoba
Conservatives: Dauphin-Swan River-Marquette, Selkirk-Interlake, Brandon-Souris, Portage-Lisgar, Provencher, Charleswood-St. James-Assinboia, Kildonan-St. Paul
NDP: Churchill and Winnipeg Centre
Liberal-Tory battleground but leans Tory: Winnipeg South and Saint Boniface
Liberal-Tory battleground but leans Liberal: Winnipeg South Centre
NDP-Tory battleground but leans NDP: Elmwood-Transcona
Liberal-NDP battleground and too close to call: Winnipeg North
Conservatives: 7-11 seats
NDP: 2-4 seats
Liberals: 0-4 seats
Saskatchewan
Conservatives: Prince Albert, Battlefords-Lloydminster, Cypress Hills-Grasslands, Souris-Moose Mountain, Yorkton-Melville, Regina-Lumsden-Lake Centre, Regina-Qu'appelle, Saskatoon-Wanuskewin, Saskatoon-Humboldt, and Blackstrap
Liberals: Wascana
Tory-NDP battleground but leans Tory: Palliser and Saskatoon-Rosetown-Biggar
Tory-NDP Battleground and too close to call: Desnethe-Missinippi-Churchill River
Conservatives: 10-13 seats
Liberals: 1 seat
NDP: 0-3 seats
Alberta
Conservatives: Fort McMurray-Athabasca, Peace River, Westlock-St. Paul, Yellowhead, Vegreville-Wainwright, Wetaskiwin, Red Deer, Crowfoot, Wild Rose, Medicine Hat, Macleod, Lethbridge, Calgary Southwest, Calgary West, Calgary-Nose Hill, Calgary Northeast, Calgary East, Calgary Southeast, Calgary Centre, Calgary Centre-North, Edmonton-Mill Woods-Beaumont, Edmonton-Leduc, Edmonton-Spruce Grove, Edmonton-St. Albert, Edmonton Centre, Edmonton East
Independent-Tory battleground but leans Tory - Edmonton-Sherwood Park
NDP-Tory battleground and too close to call - Edmonton-Strathcona
Conservatives: 26-28 seats
NDP: 0-1 seat
Independent: 0-1 seat (James Ford)
British Columbia
Conservatives: Prince George-Peace River, Cariboo-Prince George, Kamloops-Thompson-Cariboo, Okanagan-Shuswap, Kootenay-Columbia, Okanagan-Coquihalla, Kelowna-Lake Country, Nanaimo-Alberni, West Vancouver-Sunshine Coast-Sea to Sky Country, North Vancouver, Port Moody-Westwood-Port Coquitlam, Pitt Meadows-Maple Ridge-Mission, Richmond, Delta-Richmond East, Fleetwood-Port Kells, South Surrey-White Rock-Cloverdale, Langley, Abbotsford, Chilliwack-Fraser Canyon
NDP: Skeena-Bulkley Valley, British Columbia Southern Interior, Nanaimo-Cowichan, Victoria, Vancouver East, and Burnaby-New Westminster
Liberals: Vancouver-Quadra and Vancouver Centre
NDP-Tory battleground but leans Tory: Vancouver Island North
NDP-Tory battleground and too close to call: Esquimalt-Juan de Fuca, Burnaby-Douglas, and Surrey North
NDP-Tory battleground and leans NDP: New Westminster-Coquitlam
Liberal-Tory battleground and too close to call: Vancouver South
Green-Tory battleground but leans Tory: Saanich-Gulf Islands
Three way race favouring Liberals followed by Tories, then NDP: Newton-North Delta
Liberal-NDP battleground favouring the NDP: Vancouver-Kingsway
Conservatives: 19-26 seats
NDP: 6-13 seats
Liberals: 2-5 seats
Green Party: 0-1 seat (Elizabeth May)
North
Safe Liberal: Yukon
Liberal-Tory battleground but leans Tory: Nunavut
Liberal-NDP-Tory battleground and too close to call: Western Arctic
Liberals: 1-3 seats
Conservatives: 0-2 seats
NDP: 0-1 seat
National:
Conservatives: 113 - 173 seats
Liberals: 53 - 108 seats
Bloc Quebecois: 44 - 56 seats
NDP: 23 - 48 seats
Independent: 0 - 2 seats
Green Party: 0 - 1 seat
So in summary, the Conservatives still have a shot at a majority government and in the best case scenario would actually have a fairly decent one having their best showing since 1984 and third best since World War II. By the same token, there is a greater chance that they won't get a majority than will and while under the worse case scenario they would still have 5 seats more than the Liberals, I would be surprised if we see an informal arrangement whereby the opposition agrees to back the Liberals and unlike the 2008 coalition, there probably wouldn't be nearly as much opposition. In the case of the Liberals, they have virtually no chance at beating the Tories in terms of seats, but they can still improve greatly over 2008 which would allow for two things to happen, which are; 1. an informal arrangement with the other opposition parties to back them could allow Michael Ignatieff to become PM, 2. Even if this doesn't happen, Michael Ignatieff would likely get to stay on and get another shot in the next election. Under the worse case scenario, they could fall to third place, albeit highly unlikely but they would still have more seats than the NDP. Nonetheless a unite the left merger between the NDP and Liberals would increase greatly under this scenario. Either way, they may have the worse showing in terms of the popular vote, but there is almost no chance of them doing worse than 1984 in terms of seats (they got 40 seats this election) and in fact despite them trailing in the polls there is still a slightly better than even chance of them performing better than they did in 2008. For the Bloc Quebecois, they could gain or lose seats and maybe if lucky even set a record in terms of seats, but not the popular vote (49% is their record) as this time around they are much weaker than in 2004 or 1993 but face a more divided federalist opposition than in those years. Either way, they will still win the majority of seats in Quebec even if they don't get the majority of votes. For the NDP, there is a possibility, but not unlikely that they will break Ed Broadbent's seat record of 43 seats, while even in the worse case scenario, they will still do better than they did in 2004. What they probably have the best chance of doing is winning at least one seat in 9 out of 10 provinces with PEI being the only province they have no chance at winning any seats. For the two Independents, that I predicted could win, both are former Tories and are small "c" conservatives in terms of beliefs thus they would probably support the Tories on most legislation and if having them join the party would make a difference between and minority and majority, I suspect the party would let them join or at least get an agreement with them to support them on all confidence motions for the next four years but still be free to vote against them on individual bills which are not confidence motions. For the Green Party, it is really a matter of whether Elizabeth May can win her seat or not. If she can win her seat, the party will likely have a strong case for being in next elections' debates. This would also be the first Green Party seat won in an election in Canada at any level albeit not the first ever in a country using the first past the post system, this happened in Britain last May when they elected their first Green MP. Hopefully next week I can narrow things down a bit as poll numbers become clearer.
Guelph Student vote and Helena Guergis story
Yesterday, there was a controversy about the special ballots used at the University of Guelph so students could vote early. The Tories wanted the ballots to be thrown out since it was not authorized by Elections Canada, there was partisan material inside the polling station, and they were not allowed to have a scrutineer there during the vote. Others have accussed the Tory agent of disrupting the voting and attempting to grab the ballot box. I don't know all the details so here is my opinion on what should have been done depending on the scenario. Elections Canada promised to count these ballots, but not allow anymore of these type polls. Low turnout amongst younger voters and the fact exams are occurring during advanced polling, while election day is when many are moving back home for the summer, I realize the difficulties in voting and applaud making efforts to make it easier for students to vote. Still, I believe the polling station should be pre-authorized, there should be no partisan literature within 200m of the voting place, and all parties should be allowed to have a scrutineer present, however a party's failure to have a scrutineer not show up is not sufficient grounds to discount the votes. Otherwise as long as parties are allowed to provide scrutineers, that is what matters. If one isn't able to provide one, that is their problem. Likewise disrupting the voting and trying to grab the ballot box is unacceptable as well. If this did happen, the person who did it should be charged for violating the elections act. If one thinks a poll is illegal, the proper response is to ask Elections Canada to investigate and if you don't like their response then challenge it in court. Trying to disrupt the vote is not the proper way to deal with this. Even had Elections Canada disqualified the votes at this ballot box, those who voted could still vote in advanced polls or on election day. Also on election day if taking out this poll would have resulted in a different candidate winning the riding, I have no doubt that candidate will apply for a judicial recount or during the recount try to convince the judge to throw out the ballots from this poll. I don't support voter suppression, but nor do I support illegal voting either. I cannot say what the answer is here, but if any rules were broken, hopefully they are rectified and those who broke them are punished.
In the case of Helena Guergis, this is really old news. I suspect she is doing this just to increase her chance of winning her own riding. While I agree that she is not guilty of the things she is accussed of, it is important to understand that all parties have the right to remove an individual whom they don't want in their party. At the end of the day it is up to the voters in the riding to decide if it was the right or wrong decision. I have always supported the right of parties to expel members and I have also always supported the right of people to cross the floor to another party (which Guergis did not do). At the end of the day the voters have the final say. In the case of Scott Brison and Belinda Stronach, it looks like the voters agreed with their decision while for Garth Turner and Wajid Khan, it looks like they didn't.
In the case of Helena Guergis, this is really old news. I suspect she is doing this just to increase her chance of winning her own riding. While I agree that she is not guilty of the things she is accussed of, it is important to understand that all parties have the right to remove an individual whom they don't want in their party. At the end of the day it is up to the voters in the riding to decide if it was the right or wrong decision. I have always supported the right of parties to expel members and I have also always supported the right of people to cross the floor to another party (which Guergis did not do). At the end of the day the voters have the final say. In the case of Scott Brison and Belinda Stronach, it looks like the voters agreed with their decision while for Garth Turner and Wajid Khan, it looks like they didn't.
Tuesday 12 April 2011
The Debates
After having watched the debates and heard the feedback, I would probably say Harper came out on top, but Layton had a strong showing too. Nevertheless, I cannot see this as a game changer and suspect any change in the polls will come due to other issues, not this one.
Harper: Was calm throughout the debate and looked prime-ministerial. Despite having lots of opposition jabs against him, he for the large part came out unscathed which is really what he had to do. I don't think he said or did anything to increase his support, but his performance should at least help firm up the support he already has.
Ignatieff: Had a rough start and came off as somewhat aggressive as well as repeating the same lines over and over again which as annoying as it is can be effective in drilling a certain point in. He did however, improve as the debate went on and since people tend to remember more what happens towards the end rather than beginning, this should probably help. He did what he needed to, in order to help ensure those Liberals who sat out last election show up, but not much to win support from those who are not already Liberals, thus will his performance may make a Harper majority somewhat less likely, it also will make it a lot more difficult for the Liberals to win. In fact I would say the odds of him beating Harper in terms of seats are fairly low at the moment, but we shall await the polls over the next few days before confirming him out.
Layton: His usual performance and had a number of good one liners, especially on Ignatieff's poor attendance record for votes. His main goal was to still relevant and prevent being squeezed out by the two main parties which I think he largely accomplished. I doubt this will be enough to catapault him into second place or get above 20% in the polls, but should at least help at the moment from being squeezed out, although on election day if either the Liberals and Tories are close to tied or Harper is on the cusp of a majority he will probably get squeezed out.
Duceppe: An alright performance. He has been in more debates than any of the other leaders although with English being his second language that does put him at somewhat of a disadvantage. This was really a warm up for him as tomorrow night as what really matters.
Since I have other commitments I will not able to see the French debates, but I do plan to watch them online before commenting on those. As promised, I will update my predictions for English Canada on Saturday and for Quebec on Sunday.
Harper: Was calm throughout the debate and looked prime-ministerial. Despite having lots of opposition jabs against him, he for the large part came out unscathed which is really what he had to do. I don't think he said or did anything to increase his support, but his performance should at least help firm up the support he already has.
Ignatieff: Had a rough start and came off as somewhat aggressive as well as repeating the same lines over and over again which as annoying as it is can be effective in drilling a certain point in. He did however, improve as the debate went on and since people tend to remember more what happens towards the end rather than beginning, this should probably help. He did what he needed to, in order to help ensure those Liberals who sat out last election show up, but not much to win support from those who are not already Liberals, thus will his performance may make a Harper majority somewhat less likely, it also will make it a lot more difficult for the Liberals to win. In fact I would say the odds of him beating Harper in terms of seats are fairly low at the moment, but we shall await the polls over the next few days before confirming him out.
Layton: His usual performance and had a number of good one liners, especially on Ignatieff's poor attendance record for votes. His main goal was to still relevant and prevent being squeezed out by the two main parties which I think he largely accomplished. I doubt this will be enough to catapault him into second place or get above 20% in the polls, but should at least help at the moment from being squeezed out, although on election day if either the Liberals and Tories are close to tied or Harper is on the cusp of a majority he will probably get squeezed out.
Duceppe: An alright performance. He has been in more debates than any of the other leaders although with English being his second language that does put him at somewhat of a disadvantage. This was really a warm up for him as tomorrow night as what really matters.
Since I have other commitments I will not able to see the French debates, but I do plan to watch them online before commenting on those. As promised, I will update my predictions for English Canada on Saturday and for Quebec on Sunday.
Monday 11 April 2011
AG bombshell and foreign voting
Today there was a leak showing a negative draft report from the auditor general released in January that the Tories misspent a lot of money on the G8/G20. Certainly this doesn't help the Tories prior to the debates and has the potential to be a game changer much the way the income trust leak was. Whether it will be a game changer or not, we will have to wait until the end of the week before we see the results. Some scandals seem to stick and others don't and it is difficult to know which category this will fall on. If still front page news by Friday, then it probably will hurt the Tories, but if largely forgotten but then, its impact will likely be rather small. The three opposition parties called for the full report to be released while the Tories realizing this could sink their campaign also agreed to have the full report released. The problem here is that the Auditor General must release the report to the Speaker of the house where it will be tabled in parliament and since parliament is not sitting this is not possible until after the election. One could argue we should change the rules, but until they are changed, we will have to wait until the election to find out the exact details. Whether it will be devastating news for the government or something relative minor, I really don't want to speculate. Nonetheless even without the final report, this still could hurt the Tories if the opposition is able to establish a narrative of this government being secretive and wasteful spenders. At this point, a lot depends on who you trust most. As for the leak, I don't condone releasing confidential information regardless of the cause. The means never justify the ends. At the same time even if the person who released it did it to harm the Tory campaign, I doubt any of the parties or senior ranking officials had anything to do with the illegal release so trying to hit them over this likely won't work.
There has been some talk about Ignatieff voting in foreign elections. In the case of the United States, he is not an American citizen and would not be eligible to vote therefore unless he voted illegally (which I think is extremely unlikely) he did not vote. He may have endorsed Kerry in 2004, but considering most Canadians and pretty much every Liberal wanted Kerry to win, I don't see anything too controversial here. In the case of Britain, he did admit to voting in the 1997 election, however under British law, anyone who is a legal resident of Britain and a citizen of the UK, Ireland, or a Commonwealth country is eligible to vote. Since Canada is a commonwealth country, Canadians residing in the UK are eligible to vote in British elections. It is true British citizens living in Canada cannot vote in Canadian elections, but voting rights are not always reciprocal. Since he paid taxes there, I don't see what the big deal is as I suspect most Canadians if they lived abroad and had the right to vote in the country they lived in, they would vote so no real big deal. As for him voting in Canadian elections while abroad, he said he did in some, but didn't give a number. One can only vote in Canadian elections if they have resided in Canada during the past 5 years and are a Canadian citizen so I wouldn't be surprised if he missed voting in some Canadian elections, not because he was disloyal to his native country, but simply because he couldn't vote. Anyways tomorrow is the debates, so depending on how late they go and how tired I am, I may or may not post tomorrow night, but certainly on Wednesday I will.
There has been some talk about Ignatieff voting in foreign elections. In the case of the United States, he is not an American citizen and would not be eligible to vote therefore unless he voted illegally (which I think is extremely unlikely) he did not vote. He may have endorsed Kerry in 2004, but considering most Canadians and pretty much every Liberal wanted Kerry to win, I don't see anything too controversial here. In the case of Britain, he did admit to voting in the 1997 election, however under British law, anyone who is a legal resident of Britain and a citizen of the UK, Ireland, or a Commonwealth country is eligible to vote. Since Canada is a commonwealth country, Canadians residing in the UK are eligible to vote in British elections. It is true British citizens living in Canada cannot vote in Canadian elections, but voting rights are not always reciprocal. Since he paid taxes there, I don't see what the big deal is as I suspect most Canadians if they lived abroad and had the right to vote in the country they lived in, they would vote so no real big deal. As for him voting in Canadian elections while abroad, he said he did in some, but didn't give a number. One can only vote in Canadian elections if they have resided in Canada during the past 5 years and are a Canadian citizen so I wouldn't be surprised if he missed voting in some Canadian elections, not because he was disloyal to his native country, but simply because he couldn't vote. Anyways tomorrow is the debates, so depending on how late they go and how tired I am, I may or may not post tomorrow night, but certainly on Wednesday I will.
Sunday 10 April 2011
NDP Platform and other issues
Today, the NDP released their platform which seemed a like a smart time to do so. With the debates just a few days away, this can help them regain some momentum as so far they are being squeezed out which is always a risk. Lots of spending promises, but seemed rather fiscally responsible which is not something the NDP is known for. On the one side it is similiar enough to the Liberal platform that one could argue if you are on the left and want to see Harper defeated, you might as well vote for the party that can. It also plays to the idea that both parties have a hidden agenda to form a coalition if the Tories get another minority. The NDP off course could easily counterattack this by pointing out the Liberals have a long history of running to the left but governing to the right, so you cannot trust them and it you want a centre-left government, the NDP is your only option.
Today, Gilles Duceppe asked for the French debates to be rescheduled to a different time as they would occur during the playoff opening game between the Montreal Canadiens and Boston Bruins thus this would mean fewer viewers. The NDP and Liberals both supported this while the Tories said it was up to the broadcasting consortium. I think they should reschedule as debates should be trying to get as many to tune in as possible. The other issue is while campaigning in Quebec, Harper promised to defend supply management which many called hypocritical since he has long argued for doing away with the Canadian Wheat Board monopoly. On the political front his stance makes sense as the CWB is deeply unpopular in Alberta so it gives him a chance to throw a bone to his base while in Saskatchewan and Manitoba, most farmers may support it, but the Tories won all those ridings by such large margins any lost votes amongst wheat and barley farmers will have little impact on them. By contrast supply management is mostly amongst dairly and poultry farmers and they are especially large in Quebec so opposing this could cost the Tories what few seats they have in Rural Quebec and may even throw a few rather safe Tory ridings in Ontario into jeopardy and I suspect in the final weeks, Harper wants to focus on the urban and suburban ridings in Ontario, not have to worry about holding their rural ones. Philosophically, I oppose the Wheat Board monopoly for two reasons since farmers in other provinces besides the Prairies have the right to sell on the open market so, so should those in the Prairies and also I generally oppose the idea of forced collectivism. I think individuals should be free to do as they wish so long as they don't infringe on other's rights. If it is a such a good idea, they should encourage farmers to sell under the Wheat Board through persuasion not coercision. In terms of supply management I am torn on this issue. In theory I oppose it, but the problem is our main competitiors, the United States and the European Union heavily subsidize their farm products thus unless supply management was replaced with subsidies, dairy and poultry farmers would go out of business. The free market can only work here if all trading partners apply it, not just if some apply it. Between subsidies and supply management, I see supply management as the lesser evil since it doesn't cost taxpayers anything. I think we should though eliminate it if the EU and US promise to eliminate their subsidies in those areas, but only once this is done.
In terms of predictions, here is what they will be if the debates are not a game changer which is a big if at this point.
Conservatives 121-172 seats
Liberals 55-102 seats
Bloc Quebecois 44-56 seats
NDP 24-46 seats
So this means as long as the Tories hold their ground, they can still win a majority, but it means running a solid campaign for the remainder of the election campaign. Likewise it ensures they will win the next election, but if they lose several seats, it will likely be the end of the Harper's political career as I could see him hanging on if they get around 140 seats, but if they fall to 121 seats, I suspect he will have no choice but to resign as Conservative leader. For the Liberals, it is almost a guarantee they will form at least the official opposition meaning that they will be in the best position to replace the Tories once the public gets tired of them which could happen this election, next one, or perhaps a few done the road. If they don't have an outstanding performance in the debates, they can kiss winning the next election goodbye, however if they got 102 seats, I suspect Michael Ignatieff would get another chance in the next election and they would likewise be well positioned to win the following election. For the Bloc Quebecois, unless something dramatic happens, it looks like they will win the majority of seats in Quebec as usual, but not the overwhelming majority. If the NDP's goal is the replace the Liberals as the alternative to the Tories much the way the Labour Party did in Britain around 100 years ago, they better see some dramatic changes between now and May 2nd. They do however still have a reasonable, albeit not likely chance of beating Ed Broadbent's record of 43 seats during the 1988 election. Likewise as long as they don't bomb in the debates, they shouldn't have to worry about losing their official party status (fewer than 12 seats) which was a concern during the 90s, but hasn't been recently and most in the NDP probably hope it doesn't become one anytime soon. These are not official predictions, I will update those five days after the debates.
Today, Gilles Duceppe asked for the French debates to be rescheduled to a different time as they would occur during the playoff opening game between the Montreal Canadiens and Boston Bruins thus this would mean fewer viewers. The NDP and Liberals both supported this while the Tories said it was up to the broadcasting consortium. I think they should reschedule as debates should be trying to get as many to tune in as possible. The other issue is while campaigning in Quebec, Harper promised to defend supply management which many called hypocritical since he has long argued for doing away with the Canadian Wheat Board monopoly. On the political front his stance makes sense as the CWB is deeply unpopular in Alberta so it gives him a chance to throw a bone to his base while in Saskatchewan and Manitoba, most farmers may support it, but the Tories won all those ridings by such large margins any lost votes amongst wheat and barley farmers will have little impact on them. By contrast supply management is mostly amongst dairly and poultry farmers and they are especially large in Quebec so opposing this could cost the Tories what few seats they have in Rural Quebec and may even throw a few rather safe Tory ridings in Ontario into jeopardy and I suspect in the final weeks, Harper wants to focus on the urban and suburban ridings in Ontario, not have to worry about holding their rural ones. Philosophically, I oppose the Wheat Board monopoly for two reasons since farmers in other provinces besides the Prairies have the right to sell on the open market so, so should those in the Prairies and also I generally oppose the idea of forced collectivism. I think individuals should be free to do as they wish so long as they don't infringe on other's rights. If it is a such a good idea, they should encourage farmers to sell under the Wheat Board through persuasion not coercision. In terms of supply management I am torn on this issue. In theory I oppose it, but the problem is our main competitiors, the United States and the European Union heavily subsidize their farm products thus unless supply management was replaced with subsidies, dairy and poultry farmers would go out of business. The free market can only work here if all trading partners apply it, not just if some apply it. Between subsidies and supply management, I see supply management as the lesser evil since it doesn't cost taxpayers anything. I think we should though eliminate it if the EU and US promise to eliminate their subsidies in those areas, but only once this is done.
In terms of predictions, here is what they will be if the debates are not a game changer which is a big if at this point.
Conservatives 121-172 seats
Liberals 55-102 seats
Bloc Quebecois 44-56 seats
NDP 24-46 seats
So this means as long as the Tories hold their ground, they can still win a majority, but it means running a solid campaign for the remainder of the election campaign. Likewise it ensures they will win the next election, but if they lose several seats, it will likely be the end of the Harper's political career as I could see him hanging on if they get around 140 seats, but if they fall to 121 seats, I suspect he will have no choice but to resign as Conservative leader. For the Liberals, it is almost a guarantee they will form at least the official opposition meaning that they will be in the best position to replace the Tories once the public gets tired of them which could happen this election, next one, or perhaps a few done the road. If they don't have an outstanding performance in the debates, they can kiss winning the next election goodbye, however if they got 102 seats, I suspect Michael Ignatieff would get another chance in the next election and they would likewise be well positioned to win the following election. For the Bloc Quebecois, unless something dramatic happens, it looks like they will win the majority of seats in Quebec as usual, but not the overwhelming majority. If the NDP's goal is the replace the Liberals as the alternative to the Tories much the way the Labour Party did in Britain around 100 years ago, they better see some dramatic changes between now and May 2nd. They do however still have a reasonable, albeit not likely chance of beating Ed Broadbent's record of 43 seats during the 1988 election. Likewise as long as they don't bomb in the debates, they shouldn't have to worry about losing their official party status (fewer than 12 seats) which was a concern during the 90s, but hasn't been recently and most in the NDP probably hope it doesn't become one anytime soon. These are not official predictions, I will update those five days after the debates.
Saturday 9 April 2011
The Debates/Les Debats preview
On April 12, 2011 the English debates will be held while on April 14, 2011, the French debates will be held. Below will summarize what each party needs to do in each debate if they want it to come off in their favour. Certainly a knockout punch could change everything, but considering that last one to occur federally was in 1984 when Mulroney said has famous line, "You had an option sir"; there haven't been any since and I wouldn't count on one happening. Ignatieff as a former professor as a fairly strong debater but considering this is his first campaign, I doubt he will do great, but nor do I think he will perform poorly. We have already seen Harper in three debates in each time he is pretty good at keeping his cool and usually only re-enforces for his supporters why they should vote for him, while does little to appeal to those who aren't considering voting for him. On April 17, 2011, I will update the projections in English Canada and depending on the numbers, I hope to increase the number of safe seats for each party and perhaps if there is a strong enough shift change some safe seats into the vulnerable. On April 19, 2011 I will do the same for Quebec so we will have a good idea of where things stand going into the final two weeks. The reason I plan to wait five days is it takes time for things to sink in, never mind how the debate is spun can have just as big an impact as how it actually goes.
The English Debate
Conservatives: Considering Harper when aggressive can turn people off, he really just needs to hold his ground and come out unscathed. This won't put them in majority territory, but will at least keep them at their current support and if they can have a strong final two weeks, they can still get their much coveted majority.
Liberals: This is do or die for them. If they cannot get any momentum here, they will not win more seats than the Tories. The Tories have done a good job of demonizing Ignatieff so if he performs better than the low expectations of him, this should help. Most importantly, he needs to come across as prime-ministerial. Attacking Harper isn't enough as if he wants to win, he has to look like a prime-minister in waiting not a strong opposition leader. If he does this, expect the numbers to tighten although I doubt the Liberals will pull ahead right away, but if they can get some momentum and run a strong second half, they might just pull of a weak minority.
Bloc Quebecois: This is really a warm up for Duceppe as he is not on the ballot in English Canada while few Anglophones in Quebec will even consider voting for the Bloc. This simply gives him a chance to see what will come at him in the French debate which is what really matters for him.
NDP: The main point for him is to stay relevant. The biggest risk for the NDP is being marginalized by the Liberals so he has to without saying it directly argue that the Tories are going to win again and the NDP not the Liberals are the most effective opposition party. He also needs to argue that for voters on the left side of the spectrum, the NDP is the only party you can trust to keep their promises and this can be done by pointing out how in the past the Liberals have tried to appeal to progressive voters yet only ignore them once in power.
Les Debats Francais
Conservatives: For the Conservatives, their goal is to simply hold the seats they have in Quebec and not lose any. They need to point out all the good things they have done for Quebec and also argue what Quebecers will have a more effective voice in Ottawa with a Conservative MP than a Bloc one. Since almost all the ridings in contention, their main competitor is the Bloc and not the Liberals (as in Atlantic Canada and Ontario) or NDP (as in BC and Saskatchewan), Harper's main focus should be on the Bloc. The Liberals will win seats in Quebec, but their strongholds are far removed from the areas the Tories are competitive in. In fact there are few if any ridings in Quebec where both the Liberals and Tories are competitive.
Liberals: Quebecers have often preferred their native son, but considering Michael Ignatieff speaks French fluently, this is his chance to impress Quebecers. If the party wants to win the election, they cannot just rely on Ontario, they must also gain seats in Quebec too. Stephen Harper is more unpopular in Quebec than any other province and with 2/3 wanting him removed from power, he needs to convince Quebecers that the Liberals are the best party to vote for if they want to remove Stephen Harper from power. He also needs to point out the benefits Quebec would receive with a Liberal government. Finally he needs to appeal to Francophone minorities outside Quebec as several ridings with large Francophone communities (West Nova, Miramichi, Madawaska-Restigouche, Monton-Riverview-Dieppe, Sudbury, Ottawa-Orleans, Glengarry-Prescott-Russell and Saint Boniface) are competitive ridings so if he can convince Francophones outside Quebec that their Liberals are the party that best represents them, this could also help pick up some of the ridings mentioned above and strengthen their hold on the one's they already hold..
Bloc Quebecois: This is the debate that matters for Gilles Duceppe. He not only needs to tear Harper apart, but must deal with the Liberal and NDP threat. He needs to argue that only the Bloc Quebecois represents Quebec interests and that all the other parties don't care about Quebec and if they want to ensure their party interests are represented, they need to vote Bloc. He needs to find as many examples as possible where the other parties have taken positions that are offside with Quebecers such as the Churchill Falls loans for example. If he only focuses on Harper, he could get sideswiped by one of the other two parties much the way in 2006 he focused mostly on the Liberals and got sideswiped by the Tories.
NDP: They are polling at almost 20% in Quebec, but are not concentrated in any area unlike the Liberals or Tories thus they need to better to pick up the seats they want. In addition they not only appeal to the federalist voters, but many separtists are left of centre in their views and would consider voting NDP as their second choice so Jack Layton needs to point out how most Quebecers are progressive in their views and if they want a progressive voice in parliament, the NDP is the only party who can provide this.
I will also provide a summary on the debates on the actual day, but I will not change any of my seat projections until five days after. I will again update my seat projections on April 25, 2011 with one week to go and make my final projections on the evening of May 1, 2011 after all the polls have been released and it is less than 24 hours before the polls close.
The English Debate
Conservatives: Considering Harper when aggressive can turn people off, he really just needs to hold his ground and come out unscathed. This won't put them in majority territory, but will at least keep them at their current support and if they can have a strong final two weeks, they can still get their much coveted majority.
Liberals: This is do or die for them. If they cannot get any momentum here, they will not win more seats than the Tories. The Tories have done a good job of demonizing Ignatieff so if he performs better than the low expectations of him, this should help. Most importantly, he needs to come across as prime-ministerial. Attacking Harper isn't enough as if he wants to win, he has to look like a prime-minister in waiting not a strong opposition leader. If he does this, expect the numbers to tighten although I doubt the Liberals will pull ahead right away, but if they can get some momentum and run a strong second half, they might just pull of a weak minority.
Bloc Quebecois: This is really a warm up for Duceppe as he is not on the ballot in English Canada while few Anglophones in Quebec will even consider voting for the Bloc. This simply gives him a chance to see what will come at him in the French debate which is what really matters for him.
NDP: The main point for him is to stay relevant. The biggest risk for the NDP is being marginalized by the Liberals so he has to without saying it directly argue that the Tories are going to win again and the NDP not the Liberals are the most effective opposition party. He also needs to argue that for voters on the left side of the spectrum, the NDP is the only party you can trust to keep their promises and this can be done by pointing out how in the past the Liberals have tried to appeal to progressive voters yet only ignore them once in power.
Les Debats Francais
Conservatives: For the Conservatives, their goal is to simply hold the seats they have in Quebec and not lose any. They need to point out all the good things they have done for Quebec and also argue what Quebecers will have a more effective voice in Ottawa with a Conservative MP than a Bloc one. Since almost all the ridings in contention, their main competitor is the Bloc and not the Liberals (as in Atlantic Canada and Ontario) or NDP (as in BC and Saskatchewan), Harper's main focus should be on the Bloc. The Liberals will win seats in Quebec, but their strongholds are far removed from the areas the Tories are competitive in. In fact there are few if any ridings in Quebec where both the Liberals and Tories are competitive.
Liberals: Quebecers have often preferred their native son, but considering Michael Ignatieff speaks French fluently, this is his chance to impress Quebecers. If the party wants to win the election, they cannot just rely on Ontario, they must also gain seats in Quebec too. Stephen Harper is more unpopular in Quebec than any other province and with 2/3 wanting him removed from power, he needs to convince Quebecers that the Liberals are the best party to vote for if they want to remove Stephen Harper from power. He also needs to point out the benefits Quebec would receive with a Liberal government. Finally he needs to appeal to Francophone minorities outside Quebec as several ridings with large Francophone communities (West Nova, Miramichi, Madawaska-Restigouche, Monton-Riverview-Dieppe, Sudbury, Ottawa-Orleans, Glengarry-Prescott-Russell and Saint Boniface) are competitive ridings so if he can convince Francophones outside Quebec that their Liberals are the party that best represents them, this could also help pick up some of the ridings mentioned above and strengthen their hold on the one's they already hold..
Bloc Quebecois: This is the debate that matters for Gilles Duceppe. He not only needs to tear Harper apart, but must deal with the Liberal and NDP threat. He needs to argue that only the Bloc Quebecois represents Quebec interests and that all the other parties don't care about Quebec and if they want to ensure their party interests are represented, they need to vote Bloc. He needs to find as many examples as possible where the other parties have taken positions that are offside with Quebecers such as the Churchill Falls loans for example. If he only focuses on Harper, he could get sideswiped by one of the other two parties much the way in 2006 he focused mostly on the Liberals and got sideswiped by the Tories.
NDP: They are polling at almost 20% in Quebec, but are not concentrated in any area unlike the Liberals or Tories thus they need to better to pick up the seats they want. In addition they not only appeal to the federalist voters, but many separtists are left of centre in their views and would consider voting NDP as their second choice so Jack Layton needs to point out how most Quebecers are progressive in their views and if they want a progressive voice in parliament, the NDP is the only party who can provide this.
I will also provide a summary on the debates on the actual day, but I will not change any of my seat projections until five days after. I will again update my seat projections on April 25, 2011 with one week to go and make my final projections on the evening of May 1, 2011 after all the polls have been released and it is less than 24 hours before the polls close.
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