Last post before the polls close

In just over an hour, the first polls will close in Newfoundland & Labrador and we will see the first results.  In the case of Newfoundland & Labrador, I don't think it will be very indicative of how things will go, but it will be interesting to see if the Tories regain a seat after Williams' ABC campaign.  Avalon seems like their best bet, but Random-Burin-St. George's is a possibility.  The NDP look set to gain St. John's South-Mount Pearl so this might be the first indication of whether the orange surge has truly materialized or not.  At 8:00, the polls in the rest of Atlantic Canada close.  In terms of vote splitting or Conservative gains I will be watching to see if the Tories pick up Malpeque, Madawaska-Restigouche, and Moncton-Riverview-Dieppe since if they pick up these, that could be a sign of big gains in Ontario, but if not it may say the Liberal vote is holding better than expected.  Dartmouth-Cole Harbour and South Shore-St. Margaret's are the most likely NDP pick ups in Nova Scotia so if they cannot pick those up, the surge may be weaker than expected while if they pick up Central Nova and Halifax West that probably means it is stronger than expected.

Quebec, Ontario, and BC are the provinces to watch later as the Prairies should largely stay Tory with only a few seats possibly changing hands.  In the case of Quebec, a lot will be whether the NDP surge materializes or not.  They should win at least 30 seats there, but if they get over 50 seats they may have a chance at getting over 100 seats nationally.  Likewise this will be the first sign as to whether the Bloc Quebecois will play a role in the next parliament or not.  The Liberals and Conservatives should lose seats, but not all.  In Ontario, there are a couple of possible scenarios.  If the Conservative vote rises to 42-43%, they could have a really good night and will probably pull off a majority.  If it stays in the 38-40% range but you have strong vote splits, this should be enough to counter losses elsewhere but probably not quite enough to get a majority.  If the Liberals rebound somewhat, then expect them to have a better night than expected and the Tories to hold their seats but not get a majority.  If the NDP surges past 30% in Ontario, expect them to start picking up seats we never expected, but also we should see a lot of Tory pickups from supposed safe Liberal seats in suburban 416 and the 905 belt.  In British Columbia, it will determine whether the Conservatives get a majority or not and likewise if an NDP-Liberal coalition is viable or not.  The Conservatives should win the majority of seats in BC, but whether they hold their ground or lose to the NDP still remains to be seen.

I will give my initial reaction later tonight, but do an indepth analysis tomorrow or Wednesday on the regional breakdowns, why the parties fared the way they did, where they need to go going forward, and also whether a coalition is viable or not in the case of another Conservative minority.