A volatile election

Many predicted this would be a Seinfield election where not much would change.  This appears to be anything but the case as we may see a historical realignment.  I will hold off on my projections until Sunday evening, but outside of Quebec I hope to give a riding by riding projection but if the polls are too volatile I will give a generall seat projection by province.  For Quebec, too much has changed to realistically predict each seat.  The NDP will win at least 20 seats and possibly in excess of 50 seats, but the exact number is tough to determine.  The Bloc Quebecois will take a big hit and may even lose its official party status under the worse case scenario while the Tories will almost certainly lose seats in Quebec albeit not all.  The Liberals likewise should hold some of their West Montreal ridings but it won't be a good election for either of the two parties in Quebec.  Outside Quebec, I think the changes will be a little less dramatic than the polls suggest.  In Atlantic Canada, last time around, the Liberals got 34%, Tories 29%, and NDP 26% and since the polls are close to this and don't think you will see a whole lot of seat changes here and most of the seat changes will be in close ridings.  One thing that may hurt the NDP surge is they are strongest in Nova Scotia which has an unpopular provincial NDP government.  In Ontario, the Tories are steady in the upper 30s and may even get in the low 40s so whether they gain or lose will depend on whether the NDP and Liberals split the vote heavily or one moves ahead.  Based on the past bad experiences with an NDP government, I cannot see the NDP getting over 30% in Ontario and thus I think their pickups will be limited and they may even lose a couple of seats.  In Western Canada, the NDP surge still has yet to materialize as the Tories are ahead in all Western provinces and the NDP in second as usual.  The NDP may pick up some seats in British Columbia, but probably not very many.  Of the NDP gains they will overwhelmingly be in Quebec.  I also don't think it is a foregone conclusion they will come in second in terms of seats.  The Liberal vote is more concentrated and the Liberals have a better GOTV strategy in more ridings than the NDP does even though the NDP has a stronger GOTV strategy in the few ridings they are competitive in.  In fact I could still see the Liberals narrowly beating out the NDP, especially considering NDP support is soft and strongest amongst younger voters who are least likely to show up.  A Tory majority is unlikely but not impossible, especially if there is a strong split in Ontario and they do a good job of bringing out their supporters.

On a personal note, I have tried to make this blog as non-partisan as possible, but I am quite disturbed about the fact Canada may be moving to a more polarized political environment.  Having the Liberals and Progressive Conservatives who were both close to the centre served Canada well in the past and I believe the PC demise in 1993 and the rise of the Reform Party was a bad thing for Canada.  I likewise believe the demise of the Liberal party and replacement by the NDP would be a bad thing too.  Many European countries have polarized electorates between left and right and this is not a path I want to go down.  That is why my hope is if the Tories win a majority, they don't go too far to the right, especially on social issues.  I am fairly conservative on economic issues so if they follow the Thatcher/Reagan style on fiscal policies I am a little less concerned although I would hope they are more conciliatory to their opponents.  Likewise I hope the Liberals, not the NDP come in second in terms of seats so when Canadians do get rid of the Tories be it in a couple months through a coalition (which I am no fan of) or winning outright in 5-10 years down the road, hopefully it is the Liberals not the NDP.  Also the NDP have a pie in the sky platform which is common of many parties that don't expect to win and have many inexperienced candidates who may win their seats.  At least in provinces like Saskatchewan or Manitoba, the NDP has to make realistic promises and also has experienced candidates.