Unfortunately I lost my password on my last blog and was unable to get back in so I had to start a new one, but you can still see my other one at mlunn.blogspot.com. I will continue where I left off.
We have had a number of polls this week and all of them show a slight tightening of the race although the Tories are still well ahead, but with a strong minority, not a majority like last time around. In Ontario, most polls show the Tories ahead, but by a much smaller margin and things are close enough now that the Tories could just as easily lose a few of their close seats as they could pick up. Another surprise is how well the NDP is doing in Quebec and may even in votes beat the Liberals and Tories. However, it will still probably result in fewer seats as the NDP support is spread out whereas the Liberals are usually concentrated on the Island of Montreal and the Tories are somewhat less concentrated but still strongest in Quebec City and the Appalaches-Chaudiere region which is directly south of Quebec City.
In terms of events, not a lot on the policy front, but a lot on various controversies. The Tories have had two this week. The first is their banning of people attending their events who are not loyal partisan supporters. One 19 year girl from London was banned since she had a picture of her with Michael Ignatieff. I understand the need to keep out troublemakers, hecklers, and those who might pose a security risk, but trolling facebook for any images that suggest they might support another party seems like it is going too far. Rallies should not just be for the party faithful but also for the undecided who want to hear what the leaders have to say and then make an informed decision. Any party that wants to enhance its support must appeal beyond its base and since the Conservative base is not large enough to win a majority it seems counterproductive to not be open to those on the fence. The other issue is the Bruce Carson scandal. While Bruce Carson has not done anything in the PMO's office that was fraudalent, the fact he has multiple prior convictions and was still hired shows bad judgement on the PM's side. I know the PM won't do the screening himself, but this is definitely a case where whomever gets elected should promise better screening to prevent such an event from happening again.
Not to be outdone, the Liberals had their first major controversy today when Andre Forbes who is running in Manicouagan was found to have made racist remarks against aboriginals and also was the head of L'Association des droits des blancs (which means Association for rights of Whites). The Liberals did the right thing to drop him as a candidate and I doubt this will have lasting damage still it does say their vetting process could be better. Also this is not the first time something like this happened; in 2008, two Liberal candidates in Quebec were dropped also for making racist remarks against aboriginals. Considering the Liberals are generally the party that believes in equality of all Canadians and takes very strong stands against racism, it is odd someone with those views would run for them, but maybe it had more to do with which party was easiest to win the nomination for. In much of rural Quebec, the Liberal brand is so weak that riding associations are practically non-existent so not hard for anyone to take over one. In addition the chances of the Liberals actually winning this riding were close to zero, but it still doesn't look good. Nonetheless, Ignatieff handled it the best he could, so I doubt it will hurt the Liberals too much.
So far, the Tories have not been having the greatest campaign, while the Liberals have done surprisingly well. It is still early in the game and so I wouldn't make any bold predictions just yet. The Tories can certainly turn things around and the Liberals have plenty of time to make a major blunder so a lot can happen between now and election day. Considering how few Canadians are following the election so far, I don't expect the poll numbers to move much prior to the debates. Around April 17th, which is five days after the English debates, then you could see some major changes and I that point I will update my predictions based on what direction the polls move in. As such my predictions from my earlier blog have not changed as the change in the poll numbers has been quite minor and can easily reverse itself or continue in the same direction.
No comments:
Post a Comment