Tuesday 19 April 2011

Prediction Updates

Here are the changes I am making

Nova Scotia

Halifax - NDP

Liberals 5-6 seats
Conservatives 2-4 seats
NDP 2-3 seats

Atlantic Canada

Liberals 11-21 seats
Conservatives 6-17 seats
NDP 4-6 seats

Quebec

Portneuf-Jacques Cartier back too close to call being an Independent-BQ battleground.  Since Andre Arthur usually votes with the Tories they could probably count on his vote if they fall just short of a majority

Outremont - NDP

Bloc Quebecois: 43-56 seats
Liberals: 12-20 seats
Conservatives: 6-11 seats
NDP: 1-2 seats
Independent: 0-1 seat

Ontario

Conservatives: Thornhill, Oakville, Brant, Kenora, Glengarry-Prescott-Russell

Liberals: Bramalea-Gore-Malton and Guelph

Conservatives: 44-63 seats
Liberals: 28-48 seats
NDP: 12-18 seats

Manitoba

Conservatives: Winnipeg South

Conservatives: 8-11 seats
Liberals: 0-3 seats
NDP: 2-4 seats

Saskatchewan

Conservatives: Palliser

Conservatives: 11-13 seats
Liberals: 1 seat
NDP: 0-2 seats

National Totals:

Conservatives: 120 - 171 seats
Liberals: 55 - 102 seats
Bloc Quebecois: 43 - 56 seats
NDP: 25 - 47 seats
Independent: 0 -3 seats (all centre-right so would probably back the Tories on most legislation and confidence votes)
Green Party: 0 - 1 seats

After the Easter weekend or if any dramatic changes occur, I will update my predictions.

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