NDP Surge nationally?

With the NDP polling at an all time high and the other parties declining, there has been some speculation that Jack Layton will be our next PM.  I think this is far less likely than many make it out to be.  If we look at a regional level, Atlantic Canada has a high margin of error so probably better to do a riding by riding analysis or take the aggregate average of all polls.  In Ontario, the Tories are still polling close to or even slightly above the 39% they got last time around and considering they are strongest amongst those most likely to show up, the polls if they stay in place would actually result in them gaining rather than losing seats.  In the West, the Tories are still out in front and the NDP in second much like last time so despite some predictions the NDP will get over 100 seats, when one does a riding by riding analysis I am skeptical of anything above 80 seats and that is assuming they maintain their current level of support.  In terms of predictions, I will probably give a general one for Quebec as the shifts have been so great that relying on past polls really doesn't work.  I do believe the NDP will pick up quite a few seats in Quebec, but the exact number is still yet to be determined.  Elsewhere in Canada, not enough has changed to warrant any seat change predictions at this point.