On April 12, 2011 the English debates will be held while on April 14, 2011, the French debates will be held. Below will summarize what each party needs to do in each debate if they want it to come off in their favour. Certainly a knockout punch could change everything, but considering that last one to occur federally was in 1984 when Mulroney said has famous line, "You had an option sir"; there haven't been any since and I wouldn't count on one happening. Ignatieff as a former professor as a fairly strong debater but considering this is his first campaign, I doubt he will do great, but nor do I think he will perform poorly. We have already seen Harper in three debates in each time he is pretty good at keeping his cool and usually only re-enforces for his supporters why they should vote for him, while does little to appeal to those who aren't considering voting for him. On April 17, 2011, I will update the projections in English Canada and depending on the numbers, I hope to increase the number of safe seats for each party and perhaps if there is a strong enough shift change some safe seats into the vulnerable. On April 19, 2011 I will do the same for Quebec so we will have a good idea of where things stand going into the final two weeks. The reason I plan to wait five days is it takes time for things to sink in, never mind how the debate is spun can have just as big an impact as how it actually goes.
The English Debate
Conservatives: Considering Harper when aggressive can turn people off, he really just needs to hold his ground and come out unscathed. This won't put them in majority territory, but will at least keep them at their current support and if they can have a strong final two weeks, they can still get their much coveted majority.
Liberals: This is do or die for them. If they cannot get any momentum here, they will not win more seats than the Tories. The Tories have done a good job of demonizing Ignatieff so if he performs better than the low expectations of him, this should help. Most importantly, he needs to come across as prime-ministerial. Attacking Harper isn't enough as if he wants to win, he has to look like a prime-minister in waiting not a strong opposition leader. If he does this, expect the numbers to tighten although I doubt the Liberals will pull ahead right away, but if they can get some momentum and run a strong second half, they might just pull of a weak minority.
Bloc Quebecois: This is really a warm up for Duceppe as he is not on the ballot in English Canada while few Anglophones in Quebec will even consider voting for the Bloc. This simply gives him a chance to see what will come at him in the French debate which is what really matters for him.
NDP: The main point for him is to stay relevant. The biggest risk for the NDP is being marginalized by the Liberals so he has to without saying it directly argue that the Tories are going to win again and the NDP not the Liberals are the most effective opposition party. He also needs to argue that for voters on the left side of the spectrum, the NDP is the only party you can trust to keep their promises and this can be done by pointing out how in the past the Liberals have tried to appeal to progressive voters yet only ignore them once in power.
Les Debats Francais
Conservatives: For the Conservatives, their goal is to simply hold the seats they have in Quebec and not lose any. They need to point out all the good things they have done for Quebec and also argue what Quebecers will have a more effective voice in Ottawa with a Conservative MP than a Bloc one. Since almost all the ridings in contention, their main competitor is the Bloc and not the Liberals (as in Atlantic Canada and Ontario) or NDP (as in BC and Saskatchewan), Harper's main focus should be on the Bloc. The Liberals will win seats in Quebec, but their strongholds are far removed from the areas the Tories are competitive in. In fact there are few if any ridings in Quebec where both the Liberals and Tories are competitive.
Liberals: Quebecers have often preferred their native son, but considering Michael Ignatieff speaks French fluently, this is his chance to impress Quebecers. If the party wants to win the election, they cannot just rely on Ontario, they must also gain seats in Quebec too. Stephen Harper is more unpopular in Quebec than any other province and with 2/3 wanting him removed from power, he needs to convince Quebecers that the Liberals are the best party to vote for if they want to remove Stephen Harper from power. He also needs to point out the benefits Quebec would receive with a Liberal government. Finally he needs to appeal to Francophone minorities outside Quebec as several ridings with large Francophone communities (West Nova, Miramichi, Madawaska-Restigouche, Monton-Riverview-Dieppe, Sudbury, Ottawa-Orleans, Glengarry-Prescott-Russell and Saint Boniface) are competitive ridings so if he can convince Francophones outside Quebec that their Liberals are the party that best represents them, this could also help pick up some of the ridings mentioned above and strengthen their hold on the one's they already hold..
Bloc Quebecois: This is the debate that matters for Gilles Duceppe. He not only needs to tear Harper apart, but must deal with the Liberal and NDP threat. He needs to argue that only the Bloc Quebecois represents Quebec interests and that all the other parties don't care about Quebec and if they want to ensure their party interests are represented, they need to vote Bloc. He needs to find as many examples as possible where the other parties have taken positions that are offside with Quebecers such as the Churchill Falls loans for example. If he only focuses on Harper, he could get sideswiped by one of the other two parties much the way in 2006 he focused mostly on the Liberals and got sideswiped by the Tories.
NDP: They are polling at almost 20% in Quebec, but are not concentrated in any area unlike the Liberals or Tories thus they need to better to pick up the seats they want. In addition they not only appeal to the federalist voters, but many separtists are left of centre in their views and would consider voting NDP as their second choice so Jack Layton needs to point out how most Quebecers are progressive in their views and if they want a progressive voice in parliament, the NDP is the only party who can provide this.
I will also provide a summary on the debates on the actual day, but I will not change any of my seat projections until five days after. I will again update my seat projections on April 25, 2011 with one week to go and make my final projections on the evening of May 1, 2011 after all the polls have been released and it is less than 24 hours before the polls close.
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