Today, the NDP released their platform which seemed a like a smart time to do so. With the debates just a few days away, this can help them regain some momentum as so far they are being squeezed out which is always a risk. Lots of spending promises, but seemed rather fiscally responsible which is not something the NDP is known for. On the one side it is similiar enough to the Liberal platform that one could argue if you are on the left and want to see Harper defeated, you might as well vote for the party that can. It also plays to the idea that both parties have a hidden agenda to form a coalition if the Tories get another minority. The NDP off course could easily counterattack this by pointing out the Liberals have a long history of running to the left but governing to the right, so you cannot trust them and it you want a centre-left government, the NDP is your only option.
Today, Gilles Duceppe asked for the French debates to be rescheduled to a different time as they would occur during the playoff opening game between the Montreal Canadiens and Boston Bruins thus this would mean fewer viewers. The NDP and Liberals both supported this while the Tories said it was up to the broadcasting consortium. I think they should reschedule as debates should be trying to get as many to tune in as possible. The other issue is while campaigning in Quebec, Harper promised to defend supply management which many called hypocritical since he has long argued for doing away with the Canadian Wheat Board monopoly. On the political front his stance makes sense as the CWB is deeply unpopular in Alberta so it gives him a chance to throw a bone to his base while in Saskatchewan and Manitoba, most farmers may support it, but the Tories won all those ridings by such large margins any lost votes amongst wheat and barley farmers will have little impact on them. By contrast supply management is mostly amongst dairly and poultry farmers and they are especially large in Quebec so opposing this could cost the Tories what few seats they have in Rural Quebec and may even throw a few rather safe Tory ridings in Ontario into jeopardy and I suspect in the final weeks, Harper wants to focus on the urban and suburban ridings in Ontario, not have to worry about holding their rural ones. Philosophically, I oppose the Wheat Board monopoly for two reasons since farmers in other provinces besides the Prairies have the right to sell on the open market so, so should those in the Prairies and also I generally oppose the idea of forced collectivism. I think individuals should be free to do as they wish so long as they don't infringe on other's rights. If it is a such a good idea, they should encourage farmers to sell under the Wheat Board through persuasion not coercision. In terms of supply management I am torn on this issue. In theory I oppose it, but the problem is our main competitiors, the United States and the European Union heavily subsidize their farm products thus unless supply management was replaced with subsidies, dairy and poultry farmers would go out of business. The free market can only work here if all trading partners apply it, not just if some apply it. Between subsidies and supply management, I see supply management as the lesser evil since it doesn't cost taxpayers anything. I think we should though eliminate it if the EU and US promise to eliminate their subsidies in those areas, but only once this is done.
In terms of predictions, here is what they will be if the debates are not a game changer which is a big if at this point.
Conservatives 121-172 seats
Liberals 55-102 seats
Bloc Quebecois 44-56 seats
NDP 24-46 seats
So this means as long as the Tories hold their ground, they can still win a majority, but it means running a solid campaign for the remainder of the election campaign. Likewise it ensures they will win the next election, but if they lose several seats, it will likely be the end of the Harper's political career as I could see him hanging on if they get around 140 seats, but if they fall to 121 seats, I suspect he will have no choice but to resign as Conservative leader. For the Liberals, it is almost a guarantee they will form at least the official opposition meaning that they will be in the best position to replace the Tories once the public gets tired of them which could happen this election, next one, or perhaps a few done the road. If they don't have an outstanding performance in the debates, they can kiss winning the next election goodbye, however if they got 102 seats, I suspect Michael Ignatieff would get another chance in the next election and they would likewise be well positioned to win the following election. For the Bloc Quebecois, unless something dramatic happens, it looks like they will win the majority of seats in Quebec as usual, but not the overwhelming majority. If the NDP's goal is the replace the Liberals as the alternative to the Tories much the way the Labour Party did in Britain around 100 years ago, they better see some dramatic changes between now and May 2nd. They do however still have a reasonable, albeit not likely chance of beating Ed Broadbent's record of 43 seats during the 1988 election. Likewise as long as they don't bomb in the debates, they shouldn't have to worry about losing their official party status (fewer than 12 seats) which was a concern during the 90s, but hasn't been recently and most in the NDP probably hope it doesn't become one anytime soon. These are not official predictions, I will update those five days after the debates.
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